Full-scale assault could pull Ankara’s forces into a never-ending struggle

Turkish soldiers prepare armoured vehicles to cross the border into Syria. Picture; Getty Images.

US President Donald Trump called Turkey’s bluff on Sunday, Wednesday’s attack on northern Syria was an inevitable consequence: President Erdogan could hardly back down from his many threats to invade Kurdish-held areas.

Exactly which threats he will now seek to carry out is another matter, however. Anything more than a token operation bears substantial risks, both to Turkish troops and Mr Erdogan’s reputation.

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The first targets appear to be Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, Syrian border towns that are historically majority Arab, and so outside a natural area of control for the YPG.

It is from those two towns, not the whole border strip, that US forces have withdrawn; suggesting that the US army, at least, expects that to be the initial limit of the Turkish operation.

Turkey's Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, (C) with Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Gen. Yasar Guler, (L), and Gen. Umit Dundar at army headquarters in Ankara. Picture: AP.

Mr Erdogan says that his goal is a buffer zone 32km deep along a 500km stretch of border. He would repopulate this area with up to two million Syrian refugees, mostly Sunni Arabs.

That is an ambitious target and leaves many questions unanswered. It would mean many more US troops retreating south, and there is a large Syrian regime enclave within that area. Deciding its fate would involve heavy diplomacy by Russia, a real ally of the regime and a pretend one of Mr Erdogan.

Significantly, while the Turkish army has a heavy advantage in terms of equipment and its air force, the Kurds are skilled at guerrilla warfare and know the terrain. The Turkish forces could easily be sucked into a quagmire where they are under constant attack from the YPG. Would they stop at the 32km line?

Mr Trump suggested that if Turkey invaded he would wash his hands of eastern Syria altogether - hinting that Mr Erdogan might want to try his luck at subduing Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces and the desert all the way down the Iraqi border.

Fahrettin Altun, Mr Erdogan’s chief media adviser, hinted in The Washington Post on Wednesday that this was exactly what he had in mind. He wrote: “Turkey estimates that up to two million Syrian refugees will volunteer to live in a 20-mile secure area spanning from the Euphrates River to the Syria-Iraq border. If the safe zone’s southern border reaches the Deir Ezzor-Raqqa line, that number could reach three million.”

It would mean Turkey taking full responsibility for tens of thousands of Isis prisoners in eastern Syria - including a thousand Europeans - and the 70,000 women and children in al-Hawl camp.

It would also expose Turkish troops to attack from the Isis cells that continue to roam the area.

Any such mission would be the biggest and riskiest Turkish military operation since the invasion of northern Cyprus in 1974, an act that left a conflict still frozen decades later and blighted Turkey’s relations with the outside world. A full-scale assault on eastern Syria threatens similar opposition, and could also suck Turkey in for decades but without the Cyprus front’s stability.

The Times