Year to a new (or old) US president

Opinion polls may be no more than a snapshot in time, with results that can change rapidly as events unfold. But US voters have little to cheer about in the most recent polls published a year from the next presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. As they have for months, the polls show 63 per cent of voters are dissatisfied about the likely rerun of the 2020 race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Three in five Democrat and independent voters want a nominee other than Mr Biden, who turns 81 in a fortnight amid signs that he is increasingly in his dotage. Three in 10 Republican voters are concerned about Mr Trump, who will be 78 next year and is weighed down by several damaging court cases. He could be convicted as a felon before the election.

A new Quinnipiac poll showing conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy gaining 22 per cent of the vote in a three-way contest with Mr Biden and Mr Trump suggests the major parties will be courting disaster if they run two such unappealing candidates. Concern within the Democrats was clear last week when congressman Dean Phillips, one of Mr Biden’s strongest supporters, filed papers to run against him. He said he was trying to jolt the President into facing reality. Mr Biden running again could open the door to Mr Trump. Weekend polling in The New York Times showed Mr Biden losing to Mr Trump in five of six battleground states – Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. According to an NBC poll, Mr Biden has a higher favourable rating (39 per cent positive, 49 per cent negative) than Mr Trump (35 per cent positive, 54 negative).

The time to seek alternatives is now. Concerns about Mr Biden surviving another term are not allayed by the fact Vice-President Kamala Harris, his running mate, would ascend to the presidency if he died. She lacks the competence and strength the office requires. Both sides have credible alternatives. Suggestions have emerged that Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, a tough retired four-star general with vast experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, could be drafted to run for the Democrats, as general Dwight D. Eisenhower was for the Republicans in 1952. The Democrats also have other viable candidates such as California Governor Gavin Newsom. Among Republicans, Nikki Haley shows far better understanding of world affairs than Mr Trump with his shortsighted isolationism, pandering to Vladimir Putin and insults to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The polls show a generic Democrat not in their 80s would easily defeat Mr Trump. They also show a generic Republican who has not spent years making bogus claims he was robbed in 2020 would easily beat Mr Biden. That sums up the dilemma both parties face.