Israel reshuffles the US presidential election deck

US 2024 Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley has credible foreign policy experience. Picture: AFP.

Suddenly in the aftermath of the Hamas massacre on Oct. 7, we have a presidential election about national security. And that could shuffle the US presidential-candidate deck.

The foreign-policy debate on the Republican side — China, Ukraine, the open border — had become rote. No longer. Hamas’s killing of civilians and seizing of hostages, including presumably Americans, has forced the world’s troubles to the top of the presidential agenda.

Joe Biden flew to the Israeli war zone and gave a worthy speech of commitment to the U.S. ally.

Support for Rep. Jim Jordan as House speaker depended in large part on the imperative to pass aid bills for Israel and Ukraine.

Members of the US Jewish community protest against the Israeli military operation in Gaza in the US Capitol in Washington. Picture: AFP.

After Donald Trump, days after the massacre, reflexively posted statements of derision about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and admiration for Hezbollah as “smart,” he spent the week refocusing attention on his foreign-policy accomplishments.

After one weekend in October, the table has filled with national-security crises: an existential threat to Israel, Iran exploiting the Middle East cauldron, what comes next for Taiwan, and Russia’s war against Ukraine, on the border of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The US southern border sits as an open, bleeding wound.

Let’s cut to the chase. Actually two chases.

One, which presidential candidate is up to — or qualified for — this new challenge?

Two, which party is willing to pay to do what is necessary for the U.S. to meet the challenge?

The second question answers itself. The Democratic foreign-policy establishment isn’t as far left as the party’s dominant wing. But the party of the Squad, Bernie Sanders, anti-Israel demonstrators and cash-starved progressive city governments controls the Democrats’ limitless domestic spending priorities, which simply no longer include a robust national defence. Any Democratic president with control of one congressional chamber will keep inflation-adjusted defence spending flat at best. After Oct. 7, flat puts us at risk.

US President Joe Biden and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Tel Aviv on Wednesday. Picture: AFP.

The U.S. has fallen below an adequate level of readiness in almost every area — weapons systems and inventories, troop levels and recruitment, ships and airplanes, training rotations, the ageing of the nuclear deterrent.

These dilemmas consume hours of pondering and planning by Pentagon analysts. The Israel-Hamas war makes clear the pondering is over among our adversaries. It would be naive to think that Tehran, Beijing, Moscow and possibly Pyongyang aren’t right now comparing notes on how to exploit the U.S. security nightmares Iran has just created in the Middle East.

That the U.S. needs real leadership in its next president is a cliche because it’s true and needs repeating. A Republican presidential contest that had become desultory has been rebooted by events in the Middle East.

Donald Trump has struck a wrong note with some of his comments after the Hamas attack. Picture: Getty Images via AFP.

The Democrats’ legal assault on Mr. Trump looked as if it had handed him the nomination. But it’s by no means clear that the former president is the right person to lead the country through what lies ahead.

Mr Trump produced a largely credible foreign policy, but he has since become impossibly variable. His criticism of Mr. Netanyahu over a 2020 incident hours after the massacre was an incomprehensibly wrong note. Mr Trump’s head currently is in too many disparate places, and that won’t get better. It has become a risk factor.

The candidates for whom the Israeli crisis and its broader implications create an opening are Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. They are the only two other GOP contenders with credible foreign-policy experience.

Ron DeSantis’s remarks on foreign policy always seem targeted at some constituency. He spent this week bogged down in a marginal argument with Ms. Haley over refugees from the Middle East. He looks determined to hold onto the Trump-Ramaswamy isolationist faction in the party. But as in 1941, events have isolated the isolationists.

Chris Christie and Doug Burgum have been running on their state experience, and Tim Scott’s appeal is domestic and cultural issues.

Mike Pence is one of a handful of GOP candidates with relevant foreign policy experience. Picture: Getty Images via AFP.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has been suggested for the Democrats’ nomination. Picture: AFP.

The tectonic plates of global politics have shifted beneath this campaign. The next U.S. president should be able to explain in detail the country’s national-security needs, including the trade-offs, such as the reality that long-term entitlement spending has to be on the table.

Ms. Haley has shown she can do that. If former Vice President Pence is ever going to play to his proven strength and make the case for a Reaganite foreign policy, the time is now.

An ABC/Ipsos poll taken after the Hamas massacre put public support for Mr. Biden’s handling of the crisis at a startling 41%. The public simply has lost faith in his competence. We’ll find out soon enough how much this crisis alters the Biden pattern.

In a national-security crisis, what a nation needs from its leaders is experience, focus and stamina. Former chess champion Garry Kasparov recently floated in these pages the idea of Mr. Biden’s ceding the Democratic nomination to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a retired four-star Army general.

However improbable, as of Oct. 7 an Austin candidacy would be a problem for Republicans. There’s still time for GOP voters to figure out what their party, and the country, is going to need in a president, now and for a very long time.