What comes next for Gaza?

Arab intelligence indicating Hamas has been degraded to the point it has only 10-15 per cent of its arsenal of 20,000 projectiles when it launched its war on October 7, 2023, is an encouraging sign that the terrorists are firmly on the back foot in Gaza. It took them three days last week to respond to Israel’s renewed assault on Gaza, with a feeble volley of rockets launched at Tel Aviv that was quickly neutralised.

Israel, The Wall Street Journal reports, has destroyed many of Hamas’s rocket manufacturing sites in the past year. Hamas has recruited a force of up to 25,000 fighters, much of it made up of poorly trained minors, operating under a divided Hamas leadership following the deaths of Yahya Sinwar and his top lieutenants. Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, is technically in charge but under intense pressure as he tries to cement control over Gaza. Israeli military estimates that at least 20,000 terrorist fighters, as well as much of Hamas’s senior leadership, have been liquidated.

Hamas’s disarray underlines the need for Israel to devise a path for Gaza’s future governance that is more credible than Donald Trump’s idea for a Gaza “Riviera on the Mediterranean”, and does not rely on the corrupt Palestinian Authority led by octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas. While players on all sides, except Iran, recognise there can be no role for Hamas, potential alternatives must be found. The medium to longer-term goals of an independent Gaza state and two-state solution depend on it.

There is also a need for caution as to the extent of the terror group’s collapse. The scenes showing uniformed and armed Hamas fighters in full control at the handover of Israeli hostages in recent weeks suggests a continuing Hamas “administration” in Gaza. So does the fact that Gaza’s Hamas-controlled “health ministry” continues – as it has done without interruption throughout the war – to distribute highly contentious claims about casualties caused by Israel.

While Hamas is weakened, it is the last mile of the process – finding and establishing an alternative authority – that is likely to prove hardest for Israel and its allies.