A weakened Hamas struggles to respond to Israel’s attacks

Intelligence assessments say the militant group’s arsenal and ranks are depleted, and its leadership divided.

A girl carrying a bag of bread walks past a building destroyed during Israeli strikes at the Nusseirat refugee camp, on March 20, 2025. Picture: Eyad Baba / AFP

Hamas delivered its first response to three days of Israeli assaults on the Gaza Strip, launching a volley of rockets at Tel Aviv on Thursday that set off alerts and sent residents running for shelters.

But the threat was quickly neutralised — one rocket was intercepted, while the other two landed harmlessly — highlighting how the militant group has yet to mount an effective military response to Israel’s renewed attacks.

Analysts believe that in part reflects a strategy of waiting for the right time while portraying Israel as the aggressor. But Arab intelligence officials say it also reflects the militant group’s badly degraded arsenal and fighting force after more than a year of war.

The Arab intelligence officials believe Hamas now has just 10 per cent to 15 per cent of the 20,000 projectiles it had when it attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel said the attacks, which sparked the current war, left around 1,200 dead and another roughly 250 taken hostage. Israel has destroyed many of Hamas’s rocket-manufacturing sites, making it difficult to replenish the arsenal, the intelligence officials said.

New recruits who have replaced fallen fighters are young and poorly trained, and their senior leadership is divided following the deaths last year of leader Yahya Sinwar and many of his top lieutenants, the intelligence officials said.

The gaps mean Hamas has to keep its capabilities in reserve until it can determine whether Israel’s moves are aimed at coercing it to release more of the hostages it holds or are the prelude to a new ground invasion of the territory, the Arab officials and analysts said.

Palestinians recite a prayer over the bodies of victims of Israeli air strikes in the northern Gaza Strip, in front of the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia on March 20. Picture: Bashar Taleb/AFP

“They want to keep the rockets and missiles they have as a calculation for how this operation will develop,” said Michael Milstein, the former head of Palestinian affairs in Israeli military intelligence.

Israel shattered a two-month ceasefire early Tuesday morning, beginning a wave of air strikes that Palestinian health authorities say have left more than 400 people dead, including senior Hamas political leaders.

It has kept up the strikes and moved troops back into the south and centre of the Gaza Strip, partially reoccupying a corridor that bisects the territory and restricting Palestinian movement to a road running along the coast.

On Thursday, Israel’s military said its troops were operating on the ground in the area of Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip. The ground incursion was preceded by air strikes in the area, as well as dozens of others across the enclave, Israel’s military said.

Israeli analysts caution that Hamas still has the capability to inflict casualties in guerrilla-style combat. The group has gathered unexploded Israeli shells to use in ambushes and is briefing newly appointed commanders on where to position fighters in the event of a new invasion, the Arab intelligence officials said. It is also repairing its system of tunnels that connect key areas of Gaza after it was severely damaged by Israel during the war.

The group’s leaders have passed out leaflets to new recruits showing them how to carry out ambushes and other guerrilla tactics. One reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows how to attack Israel’s Merkava tanks, calling out “kill points” including the back door, ammunition storage areas and places where the gears are vulnerable.

Attacks by those recruits aren’t likely to be sophisticated, but could still be deadly if Israeli troops enter Gaza in force.

Injured Palestinians wait for treatment at the hospital following Israeli army air strikes in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on March 18. Picture: AP/ Mohammad Jahjouh

The military said on Tuesday night that it attacked militants in northern Gaza that were preparing to shoot rockets at Israel. Additionally, the military said it attacked several vessels off Gaza’s coast that were planning attacks for Hamas and its smaller militant partner, Islamic Jihad.

“They are weaker but not something we can rely on and create assumptions that they will soon collapse,” Milstein said. “It won’t happen.”

Hamas also could try to attack Israel from the West Bank as well as from Lebanon or Syria, he said.

Still, the US-designated terrorist group is much diminished. Israel’s military believes it has killed as many as 20,000 fighters as well as much of its senior leadership. It has also beat back Hamas’s regional allies, limiting its opportunities to rearm.

The US-designated terror group’s arsenal of projectiles has dwindled to the point where it needs to conserve rockets and long-range missiles capable of hitting the Tel Aviv area, Arab intelligence officials and security analysts said. Milstein estimated it may have just dozens within that range.

Complicating matters for the group are divisions among its leadership. Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, is technically in charge, but is on the run from Israel and doesn’t communicate much, the Arab intelligence officials said. He is struggling to cement control over the whole of Gaza from his power centre in the south, they said. In northern Gaza, Izz al-Din Haddad is now the top commander, the Arab officials said.

Israel said that its strikes on Tuesday targeted Hamas’s political leadership, midrank military commanders and infrastructure, and that the attacks would continue and expand beyond air strikes.

An Israeli security official said the strikes had caught Hamas off-guard, further impeding Its ability to respond.

“They don’t have a lot of firepower to begin with,” the official said. “Add to that they were surprised by the strikes, and it took them a few days to regroup.”