Tasmanians opt for steady course

In January 2014, Tasmania was locked at the bottom of Australia’s “State of the States’’ economic performance table compiled by CommSec. Its jobless rate, then 7.7 per cent, was the worst in the nation. Stagnant population growth and weak business investment and retail spending were holding the island state back. The election of Will Hodgman’s Liberal government in March that year, plus the influence of the federal Coalition, ushered in sustained improvement. For the fifth quarter in a row last month, Tasmania took the mantle as the nation’s best-performing economy. That turnaround is primarily responsible for the return of Premier Peter Gutwein’s Liberal government on Saturday. The Liberals have at least 12 seats in the 25 seat Legislative Assembly and they are confident of picking up a 13th seat for an outright majority.

Mr Gutwein’s gamble on going to the polls almost a year ahead of schedule appears to have paid off, but only just. He has won another four years, but his party is in virtually the same position as it was before the poll, which was brought forward, presumably to take advantage of voters’ support for the government’s effective handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was hard to argue with Mr Gutwein’s pitch that: “There are more Tasmanians in work right now than what there were before the pandemic hit.”

But as Matthew Denholm writes: “Given that the Liberals effectively had 13 seats before the election, with independent Madeleine Ogilvie joining the party just after the poll was called, voters might wonder what all the fuss was about.’’

The state’s growing pains — evident in long waiting lists for medical specialist appointments and elective surgery, slow ambulance response times and inadequate infrastructure, especially roads — probably denied the government a bigger win. Health will be one of the government’s major challenges in the coming term.

Despite Labor disunity, Opposition Leader Rebecca White campaigned well. But her future could be in doubt. Labor went backwards, and this was her second straight election loss as leader, although she was elected to the position less than a year before the 2018 election. Any lurch to the left by Tasmanian Labor, however, would probably keep it in the wilderness longer. The Greens and independents picked up support, but not enough to worry the government, After reaping the benefits of business investment and prosperity, few Tasmanians would want to risk a return to economic basket case status, which prevailed for too long.