Taiwan vote a testing time for all

The election in Taiwan this weekend is of global significance. Given China’s stated ambitions towards Taiwan, it could be the most consequential event regionally for decades. Whatever the people of Taiwan decide, the world will expect China to accept the decision and behave in a way that maintains peace. But, as North Asia correspondent Will Glasgow reports on Wednesday, diplomats in Taipei have told The Australian they are braced for retribution from Beijing if current Vice-President and election frontrunner William Lai is successful. For his part, Mr Lai has no illusions about what relations will be with the mainland if he wins. Beijing has framed the election in Taiwan as a choice between “war and peace”.

In a country where there are no easy solutions, Taiwan’s main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), is campaigning on being less offensive to China in the hope that the island democracy of 23 million people will “outlive Xi Jinping”. In his recent New Year’s Eve address, Mr Xi declared the “reunification” of Taiwan and China was a “historical inevitability”. But the Chinese leader’s plan for a “one country, two systems” model has been rejected by every major party in Taiwanese politics. This is not surprising given the experience in Hong Kong, which has been absorbed totally under mainland rule. The KMT candidate, Hou Yu-ih, a former policeman and the New Taipei city mayor, has committed to further increasing Taiwan’s military defences, as well as dialogue with Beijing. A third candidate, Ko Wen-je, from the Taiwan People’s Party, a doctor who plans a more technocratic approach to cross-strait relations, is attracting attention from younger voters. But, as The Wall Street Journal notes, the common theme is the desire of Taiwan’s voters to preserve their democracy even as they debate how. Whoever wins, the affront to the CCP isn’t the policies being offered. The problem is that Beijing can’t tolerate Taiwan’s example of a thriving, Chinese-speaking democracy in which voters settle political differences at the ballot box. If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this will be why. And Taiwan’s voters know it as they head to the polls.

Australia has a big stake in how things turn out but no direct role in the election. We should wish for a peaceful transition of political authority to whoever the Taiwanese people choose. If, as appears likely, Mr Lai is successful, we can expect an escalation of the inflammatory rhetoric for which the Chinese Communist Party under Mr Xi has become well known, and possibly worse. But the bigger message is in the courage of the Taiwanese people who are preparing to go to the polls to make their decision unbowed by coercion.