State Labor to keep grip on west

After its landslide election win four years ago on the popularity of pugnacious former premier Mark McGowan, Labor holds 53 of 59 seats in Western Australia’s lower house. The Liberal Party was reduced to just two MPs and the Nationals, with four, became the official opposition. When Mr McGowan stepped down, his deputy, Roger Cook, stepped up, becoming Premier in June 2023. At Saturday’s state election Mr Cook will be seeking a mandate in his own right and is on track to be returned with a hefty majority.

While Mr Cook has earned another term, a stronger, more effective state opposition would be in the interests of West Australians. Liberal leader Libby Mettam persists with the forlorn fantasy that her party is “in it to win it”, but insiders just want to see the party get back into double digits. The Liberals and Nationals will remain heavily outnumbered but would benefit from an injection of fresh talent.

One likely newcomer, as Paul Garvey wrote this week, is Perth lord mayor, sports commentator and media personality Basil Zempilas, who is contesting the prosperous oceanfront Perth seat of Churchlands for the Liberals. The party also is hoping that Anthony Albanese’s lack of popularity in WA will help deliver a swag of seats. The Albanese government’s live sheep export ban has hurt the Labor brand in regional towns in the state.

Difficult as third terms can be to win (which is what WA Labor is seeking), fourth terms are far more difficult. The Liberals and Nationals need to improve substantially on Saturday to have any chance in 2029. Mr Cook has done well on the campaign trail, with the latest Newspoll, published on Friday, showing that Labor has widened its lead in the final stages of the campaign. He leads Ms Mettam 53-34 as preferred premier. Labor also has gained ground in the two-party-preferred vote. Across the past three weeks, the government has stretched its lead over the Liberals from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5. The Nationals’ primary vote has risen from 3 per cent to 5 per cent. The seat count on Saturday night, however, will depend on where votes fall. The Greens have nothing to offer WA and their primary vote is down from 12 per cent at the end of January to 10.

Mr Cook, a former student politician and public relations consultant, does not have the political presence of his predecessor. But he has a healthy voter satisfaction rating of 55. Compared with the ineptitude and secrecy of past and present state Labor leaders in Victoria and Queensland who have landed those states in dire financial shape, he is proving pragmatic and a safe pair of hands. He has championed WA’s most important industry, resources, and is supporting Woodside’s expansion of its North West Shelf gas project. Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has twice postponed a decision on the project, which the Greens vehemently oppose. It has become a key election issue in the west and is a prime example of how a hung federal parliament would impede development, export earnings and cheaper energy.

Saturday night’s outcome will be watched closely by political pundits given speculation that the Prime Minister on Sunday might call an April 12 federal election. WA voters, however, have long shown an ability to differentiate between state and federal politics at the ballot box.

So has Mr Cook who, to his credit, recently derailed the Albanese government’s planned overhaul of environmental laws that had been opposed by the mining sector. The WA economy was the strongest in the nation, Mr Cook said. “That’s why I stood up for WA when so-called Nature Positive laws – created in Canberra – threatened our economy,” he said. In pressuring the Albanese government to shelve the laws, Mr Cook did national productivity an important service.