Labor eyes third term, Liberals eye relevance as WA election nears

Emerging with 10 seats in the WA lower house would be the state Liberals’ second-worst return ever, but it is seen by some insiders as the pass mark.

WA Liberal Leader Libby Mettam at the WA Liberals Campaign Launch in Perth on Sunday, February 23, 2025

As Roger Cook basks in his seemingly inevitable confirmation as West Australian Premier on Saturday night, the Liberal Party’s battle-scarred true believers will be watching to see if the party can secure the seats it needs to return as a relevant political force.

While Liberal leader Libby Mettam continues to insist that her party is “in it to win it”, multiple Liberal insiders who spoke to The Australian said they just wanted to see the party get back into double digits.

There may not be an obvious mood for change in the electorate, but there does seem to be a mood for a functional opposition, and that alone may prove enough for the Liberals to claw back from the brink of extinction.

The party was left with just two lower house seats after its 2021 wipe-out to a rampant Mark McGowan, and suffered the further embarrassment of losing the title of opposition party to the ­Nationals.

Emerging from this election with 10 Liberal seats would still be the second-worst return for the party in its history, but that result is seen by some insiders as the pass mark. Others are tipping the Liberals and Nationals to gain somewhere between 12 and 15 seats.

Even though that would still leave the opposition vastly outnumbered in WA’s 59-seat lower house, insiders say that would give the party the core rump of new talent it needs to present a viable alternative to Labor in 2029.

West Australian Premier Roger Cook speaks during WA Labor’s 2025 state election campaign launch in Perth. Picture: Paul Garvey

New talent is something the Liberals have long been short of in WA, with the party not having had a new MP enter the lower house since 2013 (Alyssa Hayden won the by-election for the seat of Darling Range in 2018, but had previously sat in WA’s upper house).

TV personality and City of Perth lord mayor Basil Zempilas is considered a shoe-in for the seat of Churchlands, and brings a level of profile all but unmatched by any first-term MP. Businessman Jonathan Huston should reclaim the blue-ribbon seat of Nedlands, former Young Liberals national president Liam Staltari is expected to win Carine, while former Property Council executive director Sandra Brewer is favourite to see off a spirited contest from the teals to retain the seat of Cottesloe.

Things start to get interesting in the seats held by margins of around 10 per cent. The fate of seats like Scarborough and South Perth, held by Labor on margins of 9.5 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively, is likely to determine if the Liberals can wear genuine smiles on Saturday night.

Some Liberals are also daring to dream about seats such as Kalamunda, which with a 14.5 per cent margin should be considered a safe Labor seat. But the combination of the retirement of incumbent MP Matthew Hughes and what the Liberals believe is a strong ground-level campaign from local pharmacist and former deputy mayor Adam Hort could bring it into play.

WA Liberal Leader Libby Mettam. Picture: Colin Murty

There are also growing expectations of a particularly weak showing for Labor in the regions. Country WA has felt the problems in the state’s health system particularly acutely, while the Cook government’s gun reforms, logging bans, Aboriginal heritage measures and changes to fishing and crayfishing laws have all proved unpopular outside Perth.

The Albanese government’s sheep live export ban has also hurt the Labor brand across regional towns and cities.

The Labor-held regional seats of Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton, Albany and Kalgoorlie are all considered strong chances to fall, and even the safe Labor seats of Murray-Wellington and Pilbara could be in danger if the Liberals and Nationals put in a good showing on Saturday.

Perhaps reflecting those anxieties, Mr Cook spent Wednesday and most of Tuesday visiting regional seats.

“As I’ve always said, I’m worried about every seat, and I’m taking the opportunity in the last few weeks of this campaign to move in and around the seats of Perth and regional WA,” he told reporters while visiting Albany.

“These are always great opportunities to have amazing conversations with people in WA. And in this election we don’t take anything for granted, so those conversations will be taking place right up until the 8th of March.”

Ms Mettam, meanwhile, was again refusing to be drawn on how many seats would constitute a good showing for the Liberals.

“Our candidates are working hard, the community is engaged,” she said.

“We have a mountain to climb. We don’t have the resources of the Labor government. While they’re playing a game of distraction, we’re focused on the issues that Western Australians are talking to us about.”

The Liberals are likely to have only one lower house MP with parliamentary experience – Ms Mettam – after Saturday, assuming recent Nationals defector Merome Beard loses to her former leader Shane Love in the amalgamated seat of Mid West.