Softly, softly on climate may deliver elusive results

The Morrison government is demonstrating a quiet determination to progress the nation’s climate change response through good process and considered action rather than grand gesture and public posturing. The appointment of former Business Council of Australia president and Origin Energy chief Grant King to head a re-energised Climate Change Authority shows the government is serious about finding an economically and technically feasible pathway to net-zero emissions. As we report on Tuesday, a new climate change co-ordinator role also has been created within the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to help the Morrison government prepare its long-term strategy for a low-emissions future. Both appointments show the government is gearing up to engage with what will be a significant diplomatic challenge ahead of the much anticipated UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Glasgow in November. A series of meetings before then will pressure Australia and other nations to demonstrate good faith in dealing with climate change. Financial markets are being restructured around climate action, and emissions increasingly are being factored into decisions about finance and trade.

Scott Morrison is among 40 leaders invited to a climate change summit called by US President Joe Biden for April 22-23. Climate change also will be a key issue for discussion at the G7 summit in June. The issue dominated a meeting of G7 finance ministers last week, including preparations for countries to be carbon neutral by 2050 and to increase the availability of climate finance to the developing world. The Morrison government is under pressure to make a pledge for Australia to be carbon neutral by 2050. Australia’s position is to be carbon neutral as soon as possible, preferably by 2050. The government says it is reluctant to set a specific target date without first having a plan on how to get there. Advances in technology rather than financial imposts such as a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme are considered the best approach. Technology has been one area of common engagement with the US going back to the Howard and George W. Bush administrations.

Given the deep political divisions that have characterised climate politics in Australia for more than two decades, the Morrison government’s softly, softly approach appears to be making progress. It is a far cry from the approach taken by Kevin Rudd, who declared climate change to be the greatest moral and economic challenge of our time, before dumping modest reforms when faced with a hostile Senate rather than fight a double-dissolution election on the issue. The Australian has never hidden its preference for technological solutions over proscriptive restrictions that shift Australian industry and emissions to other countries. We have argued consistently that the emphasis should always be on getting the greatest carbon abatement at the least financial and social cost, and that action should be calibrated to that taken by other nations. But as far back as 2007 we supported the Shergold report’s recommendations to the Howard government for a market-based solution driven by price signals. This support extended to the Rudd government’s carbon pollution reduction scheme, which was sunk by the Greens. We have supported the Paris Agreement emissions targets for Australia of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels negotiated by Tony Abbott and introduced by Malcolm Turnbull.

Given the enthusiasm for a carbon-neutral target by 2050, it is worth remembering that on December 9, 2015, the Turnbull government announced a target for Australia to reach net-zero emissions by 2100. Mr Turnbull and his environment minister, Greg Hunt, jointly made the announcement at the COP 21 meeting in Paris. Against the rhetoric, Mr Turnbull’s policy achievements in emissions policy have been thin. When he was elected leader in 2015, Mr Turnbull said the Abbott-era climate change policy designed by Mr Hunt and foreign minister Julie Bishop was a “very good piece of work” and he would not be making radical changes. The Abbott-era targets remain Australia’s climate policy.

In August 2018, despite securing joint partyroom support for the national energy guarantee, Mr Turnbull abandoned the emissions component of policy painstakingly negotiated by Josh Frydenberg as energy minister. Mr Turnbull also abandoned consideration of an emissions intensity scheme because he was unable to build party support for setting a price on carbon dioxide emissions. Having the political skills necessary to persuade opponents and drive compromise are essential qualities for leadership. This is particularly so in the area of climate change policy, which has claimed a string of political casualties including Mr Rudd, Julia Gillard, Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull, once as opposition leader and again as prime minister. In contrast, the Morrison government appears to be making progress in bringing debate to the centre.

The challenge for Mr Morrison is to get and accept good advice from Mr King that the public can understand and is willing to support. And he must use the beefed-up resources within PM&C to make sure Australia’s climate change actions are properly understood, including by other world leaders, who must play their part in deed as well as word.