Russia’s Vladimir Putin must not win in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s appointment of 80-year-old Vietnam veteran General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia leaves little doubt about where he is headed on what has been described as “the thorniest foreign policy issue on his plate”, as he prepares for his return to the White House. A recent paper by General Kellogg shows the yawning gap that is likely between the incoming US administration and the expectations of President Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine continues to courageously defy Vladimir Putin’s ruthless drive to overrun the country’s democracy.

Mr Zelensky, clearly anxious about the changes in Washington, argued at the weekend, quite reasonably, that granting NATO membership to those parts of his country not occupied by Russia could signal an end to Ukraine’s attempts to win back by force the territories seized by Moscow. That, he said, could provide a basis for a compromise to bring the three-year war to an end. But that view could be out of sync with the Trump administration judging by General Kellogg’s policy paper. In it he argued NATO membership should be put on hold indefinitely “in exchange for a comprehensive peace deal”, and berated the Biden administration for “entangling America in an endless war”. With its weapons stocks suffering, the US “doesn’t need involvement in another conflict”, he said, and any future US aid for Kyiv should be conditional on Ukraine negotiating with Russia. Critics of continued help for Ukraine, he wrote, were worried about whether “America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the Ukrainian war, the potential (for) the involvement of US military forces, and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict”.

Implicit in General Kellogg’s paper was a view that Ukraine’s battle over Western democratic values is not worth getting involved in, especially if there is potential for nuclear war. Misgivings about Joe Biden’s handling of Putin’s lawless onslaught against Ukraine, and mostly solid backing for Kyiv, are understandable. But the lessons of the 1930s, when dictators were appeased, must not be forgotten.

The security of the Western world and all democratic nations would be gravely compromised if Mr Trump fails to see the importance of ensuring that Putin does not win in Ukraine. The president-elect will need to realise that the US’s chances of prevailing against China for global influence will be far weaker if he allows Xi Jinping’s “no limits” ally, Putin, to win in Ukraine.