Risk aversion comes with a heavy cost to the state
The 800 deaths caused by the failure of Victoria’s hotel quarantine scheme last year have scarred the ability of Premier Daniel Andrews to make decisions on how best to deal with further outbreaks. Given the catastrophic results that flowed from the Andrews government’s incompetence, forensically detailed by the Coate inquiry report, it is understandable that Mr Andrews is hyper-vigilant to ensure there is no repeat performance.
The problem is fresh trauma being visited on 6.5 million people, now under the third hard lockdown in Victoria, will have serious consequences as well. There is in Victoria a collective trauma triggered by systemic incompetence that is being compounded by a lack of trust. Mr Andrews says he is acting on the advice of his top health officials, but it is clear the Premier has difficulty letting go. As a result, Mr Andrews appears to be acting contrary to the good news being delivered by his contact tracing team.
The goodwill he once enjoyed, despite the experience of the second lockdown, is wearing thin. ABC reporter Leigh Sales cut straight to the chase on Monday when she asked Mr Andrews how it was the case that the government still lacked such confidence in the hotel quarantine systems that it couldn’t manage two cases. “Lockdown imposes a real cost and Victorians have already paid a big price for lockdown. Cases are actually very well traced, so why the lockdown?” Sales asked. Mr Andrews’ first response was to shoot the messenger and highlight the extra potency of the UK variant of the virus.
But health editor Natasha Robinson reported on Saturday that the UK variant was not 70 per cent more infectious, as we were told. It’s not even 50 per cent more infectious.
According to the most authoritative source of data on the detailed epidemiology of transmission risk, British government executive agency Public Health England, a person who is infected with the UK variant of coronavirus is about 34 per cent more infectious. On the substance of Sales’ question, Mr Andrews said: “I am more than confident in the team we have and in the Victorian community that they can get through this.” And so he should be.
On Monday, Victorian commander of testing Jeroen Weimar provided a detailed account of the positive cases, how and when they caught the virus, and where they’ve been in the community. Starting from a family of three returned travellers believed to have contracted COVID-19 overseas, the virus infected others in the quarantine facility and from there leaked out into the community.
Mr Weimar explained the progress of contact tracing and confirmed that in most cases close contacts had tested negative or had been put into isolation. From this perspective, the situation in Victoria is no different to what has happened in other states, including NSW, which so far has not imposed a statewide lockdown.
Instead, Mr Andrews has used the latest outbreak to question the feasibility of the quarantine system as part of what appears to be an orchestrated campaign to push greater responsibility on to the Morrison government. We believe this push should be seen for what it is, a political stunt. When the issue was raised by the national cabinet, state leaders insisted they retain control of the quarantine system. Given that health is a state government responsibility, this is as it should be.
The bigger question is why has so much of the load been allowed to fall on NSW. According to figures published on Tuesday, since the implementation of the hotel quarantine program on March 28 last year, NSW has taken almost half of all arrivals. Compared with NSW’s 124,893 quarantine arrivals, Victoria took 35,666, Queensland took 41,395, South Australia 10,955 and Western Australia 30,060.
Mr Andrews needs to regain his confidence and make better decisions. Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett spoke for many Victorians when he said he was prepared to give Mr Andrews the benefit of the doubt but felt he had been lied to again. He said the UK variant did not spread as fast as people had been told and the lockdown was to protect politicians, not the people. “Be assured the reason we are in lockdown is because the Premier has no confidence in the administration of Victoria’s hotel quarantine, nor his contact tracing,” Mr Kennett said. “We Victorians, but those in particular who had been planning weddings, parties, sporting events, going to restaurants, not to mention the hundreds of restaurants who must throw out millions of dollars’ worth of food, are paying a huge price for the government’s incompetence once again.”
John Ferguson wrote on Monday that Mr Andrews was making a political and health calculation that a five-day pause was better than a months-long shutdown. Given Mr Andrews’ experience with quarantine failure, two extended lockdowns and 800 tragic fatalities last year, we understand his caution.
However, with only limited cases and a confident contact tracing team, he should end the lockdown and follow the example of NSW in managing clusters. For Victorian residents and business owners, the insecurity of not knowing when another lockdown is coming will have a profound long-term impact on the state. Mr Andrews’ risk aversion comes with a heavy price attached.
