Post-war order reaches a low ebb

Donald Trump has driven the Western alliance to a new low ebb, ordering an indefinite pause to all US military aid to Ukraine – including weapons already in transit. Although a White House official said the US President was focused on peace, Mr Trump’s blatant favouring of Vladimir Putin’s tyrannical regime could put countless Ukrainian lives at risk, depending on how long the ban extends.

In betraying the values of illustrious predecessors such as John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, whose role in bringing about the collapse of the Soviet Union was pivotal, Mr Trump also revealed a measure of contempt for long-time US allies. While Britain and Europe rallied to Ukraine’s support at a weekend meeting in London, the US President appeared to sneer at their efforts. He stated: “They cannot do the job without the US … Probably not a great statement to have been made in terms of a show of strength against Russia. What are they thinking?”

They, like citizens in most democracies watching developments in the Oval Office aghast, are probably thinking that Mr Trump, in siding with Putin, left the Europeans no choice. Washington should be welcoming the fact European leaders are facing up to their responsibilities, including increasing defence spending and backing Ukraine in a practical way, that they ignored for too long. Mr Trump’s actions, including voting on Russia’s side against Ukraine in the UN last week along with rogue states such as North Korea and Belarus, also show profound contempt for historical norms and the strategic rationale that have long guided US global policy, as Paul Kelly writes: “Trump is ahistorical. While all his predecessors since Harry Truman have seen US alliances as force multipliers that accentuate American influence and power, Trump brings a ‘dollars and cents’ accounting to US dealings with the world, fixated on a transactional balance sheet that means a shrinking American impact.”

That is bad for the global balance of power and for the security of Western nations. The US has provided more than $US120bn in aid since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, including $US67.3bn in military aid. It also provided intelligence and training, and rallied the international community to support Ukraine. That is a high price. But the cost of Putin re-creating the Soviet empire across Eastern Europe would be far higher. Would Mr Trump care? Has he, Vice-President JD Vance or senior cabinet members considered the implications? Ukraine “may be Russian some day, or they may not be Russian some day”, Mr Trump said with apparent indifference, Kelly noted. The President was seemingly unconcerned about the principle of a major power invading a smaller sovereign state.

Leaders of US allies such as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and for that matter Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, cannot question publicly for a moment how reliable an ally the US is under Mr Trump. But world leaders are watching, including Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as the latter’s warships circumnavigate Australia and he seeks to strengthen China’s hand in the Asia-Pacific.