Our most important relationship is at a critical juncture

In paying tribute to the leadership of Labor wartime prime minister John Curtin, Anthony Albanese signalled Australia’s independence in its relationship with the US. But the Prime Minister’s reference to Curtin recognising that foreign policy had to be “anchored in strategic reality, not bound by tradition” would cut more ice in the White House if it were backed by a realistic commitment to defence spending anchored in current circumstances.

The Prime Minister, who is yet to meet Donald Trump since the US election eight months ago, is set to travel to China to meet Xi Jinping for the fourth time. That will be noticed in the US, along with Mr Albanese’s refusal to lift defence spending to the 3.5 per cent recommended by Mr Trump and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Australian defence spending is set to reach just 2.3 per cent of GDP by 2033-34.

Mr Trump might well respect Mr Albanese’s view that Australia must have “confidence and determination to think and act for ourselves”, though former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos has urged the government to assure the Trump administration it is not going its own way on foreign policy. Mr Albanese’s ambition would have more credibility if resources came closer to fixing Australian Defence Force equipment and personnel shortages. It is also problematic that Australia risks falling down the queue to buy vital missiles from the US and is not in the queue for air and missile defence weapons to take out incoming rockets.

Canberra defence planners also have reason to be concerned that the snap 30-day Pentagon review of AUKUS, as Joe Kelly reports, is likely to examine how the US plan to provide Virginia-class submarines to Australia would alter Washington’s war planning. Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Institute’s Centre for Defence Concepts and Technology, told The Australian that one US concern would be whether the US Department of Defence believed Australia would employ its Virginia-class submarines in support of US operations. When the Pentagon confirmed the review in June, it said the DoD wanted to ensure allies “step up fully to do their part for collective defence”.

As Greg Sheridan writes, John Curtin understood profoundly something that seems to have passed Mr Albanese by: “That Australia’s strategic circumstances are such that its survival as an independent, sovereign nation was not guaranteed by history. Therefore Australia needed formidable military capability and dynamic, committed alliances with its closest political, ethical and strategic partners, the US and Britain. Of course, it also needed the best Asia policy it could manage.”