Oppositions must build a positive post-Covid case

There is no doubt the pandemic has been a difficult time to be in opposition, at a state level and federally. The evidence is there to see in recent election results in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania, where governments have been returned with big majorities. The number of Liberal MPs in Queensland and WA has been reduced to levels that indicate the conservative parties can expect to spend a long time in the political wilderness. Incumbency has delivered rich rewards from voters who understandably have prioritised safety above all other concerns.

The Covid response dividend is something Scott Morrison will be assessing carefully as he plans the timetable for the federal election due sometime before May next year. Voters deserve a credible alternative and good oppositions must use the time out of the limelight because of Covid to plan a coherent appeal to voters for when the pandemic has passed. The evidence from Queensland and WA is that opportunity was squandered. Federally, Anthony Albanese has sought to leave much of the heavy lifting on Covid opposition to the well-entrenched Labor premiers, and to broaden his horizons and cover off issues that cost the party dearly at the polls in 2019. The evidence is there in the ALP’s re-engagement with rural and industrial electorates in Queensland, where Labor must do well if it wants to form government after next year’s poll.

By changing leaders on Tuesday, the Victorian Liberal Party has given itself the opportunity to regroup and get a plan before it faces another contest that is likely to be against experienced and popular Labor Premier Daniel Andrews on November 26 next year. Matthew Guy regained the leadership of the Victorian Liberal Party after Michael O’Brien opted not to contest when a spill motion was carried, 20 votes to 11. The analysis of many in the party was that O’Brien was not able to cut through with the public or hold the Andrews government to account. That task now falls to Mr Guy.

John Ferguson said the victor carried the look of a man who was going back for his second tour of Afghanistan. Mr Guy led the Victorian Liberals from 2014 to 2018, resigning after losing the state election in a landslide to Mr Andrews. It can be argued that returning to Mr Guy reflects a lack of talent among the Victorian Liberal team from which to choose. Undoubtedly, Mr Guy still will be carrying some baggage among state media from controversies that arose during his time as planning minister in the Baillieu and Napthine governments between 2010 and 2014. But there are good examples of once vanquished leaders returning to the top job with great success. John Howard is an obvious example, while Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull are perhaps less so.

After his win, Mr Guy said it was time for the language of healing. He spoke of the need for empathy for those with pandemic-related mental health issues, families home-schooling and frontline workers. This is the correct approach, but he also must demonstrate that he is able to take the fight to Mr Andrews. As Rachel Baxendale reports on Wednesday, Mr Guy’s immediate battle plan is to challenge the Premier on unpopular restrictions. He will demand an end to curfews, seek a return to school for students in years 11 and 12, and call for the release of all health advice and the introduction of rapid testing for Covid-19. This is important to build his media profile and cut through with voters, an area where Mr O’Brien struggled. But Mr Guy also must be prepared to play a longer-term strategic game. As Victoria emerges from lockdown there also will be plenty of work to do rebuilding confidence in the business community, which has every reason to feel shell-shocked. Mr Guy promised to provide a clear alternative for Victorians. He said he would begin to articulate a plan not just for lockdowns but also for recovery, to be positive about their state.

“Victoria’s best days are ahead of it, not behind it,” Mr Guy said. “We should be totally focused on that. We should be focused on unifying our state, on growing our state together, not on dividing people, not on dividing Victorians and the language of division.” Mr Guy said the new agenda was for the future of Victoria coming out of Covid better than it was before. Come election time, what voters will be looking for is a credible plan to rebuild the Victorian economy. With a new leader, the Liberal Party must use the time until the next election to heal the wounds within its own ranks, to demonstrate it has the measure of a wily Mr Andrews and to develop an economic plan that shows it is worthy of the trust of long-suffering voters.