Morrison ends a tough year in the ascendency

As parliament rises for the year it has been difficult for many writers to reflect on events without falling into cliches. From constant invocations of “unprecedented” and “new normal” to “this year like no other”, many have been bewildered by the era through which we are passing and unable to interpret events with clarity. For clear analysis, Paul Kelly wrote on Wednesday: “There have been multiple traumas — unjustified border closures, hotel quarantine blunders, Victoria’s denial of political accountability, self-serving premiers exploiting pandemic protectionism — yet Australia’s record against COVID-19 is a remarkable achievement in global terms.” That is a first draft that is likely to stand the test of time.

Our island geography, strong social safety net and excellent health system have served us well. Pragmatism has eclipsed ideology. Incumbency has been immune to cheap politics. Accordingly, there should be little surprise that Scott Morrison ends the year in the political ascendancy. Yet no one knows better than he how ephemeral such apparent invincibility can be. The lesson of history is that at times of strength, leaders must use their political capital to push the difficult business of reform.

The Prime Minister had a brush with political mortality in May last year, winning an election that most commentators had awarded to the ALP months before. Having been humiliated by Mr Morrison in May, those same experts pronounced his political death after his ill-advised jaunt overseas on holiday at the height of a disastrous bushfire crisis last December. In normal circumstances that miscalculation could have damaged his standing irreparably. However, if Mr Morrison has demonstrated one political attribute, it is that he does not make the same mistake twice. No sooner had the bushfire smoke cleared than the nation found itself facing a pandemic that posed an immediate health risk. Suppression of the pandemic could be achieved only by placing the economy into an induced coma. No ideological fetishes curtailed Mr Morrison’s government in dealing with these twin crises. Having skewered Labor over deficits during the election campaign last year, Mr Morrison and his Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, showed no compunction in authorising enormous increases in commonwealth expenditure to sustain the livelihoods of millions of Australians and the businesses that employed them. Some fiscal conservatives berated them for this. But history is likely to vindicate the Morrison government. Australians tend to be a pragmatic people. And this Prime Minister sits comfortably in the mainstream centre-right tradition. Polls consistently demonstrated that the voters did not accept the arguments of ideological fringe-dwellers that the virus was confected or essentially harmless. They saw the ghastly images of improvised morgues and overcrowded hospitals in the US and Britain, and rewarded incumbents in Australia who placed public safety above economic indicators. As the parliament rose yesterday, fewer than 1000 Australians had died from this virus and there were fewer than 50 active cases in this nation. Regardless of one’s ideological proclivities, those are numbers to be celebrated. On occasion we have been critical of federal and state governments, especially where they have clumsily infringed civil liberties or undermined the federal compact through hard border closures that seemed more calculated to inflate poll numbers than to suppress infection numbers. But, on balance, our institutions have served us well. Our Constitution has served us well and too often it has been honoured in the breach this year. Again, that has incensed legal purists but not aroused the ire of most Australians. Hence, it is likely that West Australian Premier Mark McGowan will be resoundingly re-elected next March, as was his Queensland counterpart Annastacia Palaszczuk in October, and the Labor-Green government in the ACT.

Oppositions have struggled for relevance in this climate of uncertainty. In Queensland, Victoria and WA, the Coalition parties have been poorly served by weak leaders and unimpressive candidates. This is a crisis that has the capacity to undermine our parliamentary institutions if not dealt with over time. At the federal level, Anthony Albanese also has struggled to achieve traction. His problem is compounded by a lingering identity crisis not of his making. The resignation of Joel Fitzgibbon from his shadow cabinet has provided a focal point for destabilisation of Mr Albanese. Labor is struggling to straddle the divide between its blue-collar and middle-class constituencies, especially coalminers and the urban professional classes. Yet speculation that Mr Albanese will be removed is premature. Likewise, as Mr Morrison will readily aver, the next election remains an open contest. The Morrison government holds a mere one seat majority, and this extraordinary year has revealed bold predictions are fraught with risk. At times this year, politics have been acrimonious and polarising. The centre has held. But, as our leader sheath their swords for the Christmas recess, they and their fellow citizens can draw some comfort that they do indeed inhabit a Lucky Country, whose public institutions have served them well in a dangerous time.