Mixed signals on China must not cloud realities

As the strategic outlook in our region becomes more complex, it is important to look beyond the mixed signals that can work to undermine the nation’s sense of purpose and regional belonging. The evidence is clear that under President Xi Jinping the Chinese Communist Party is determined to project forcefully its claim to be the dominant economic and military power in the region. Mr Xi is at the final stages of cementing his authority as a ruler for life. His elevation coincides with a public rehabilitation of Chinese Communist revolutionary Mao Zedong, who ruled as the chairman of the CCP from the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 until his death in 1976.

To counterbalance China’s assertion, there has been a step-up in co-operation among other powers. This is most notable through the reinvigoration of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue partnership involving Australia, the US, India and Japan. The dynamics of regional security have been transformed further with the creation of AUKUS, an agreement between Australia, Britain and the US that will give Australia a nuclear-powered submarine capability. The AUKUS deal is a logical consequence of regional events, including a campaign of economic coercion against Australia that has restricted exports of billions of dollars worth of goods to China. The campaign has been portrayed as having been prompted by Australia taking a leading role in pushing for a full investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 virus. Strategic analysts contend that the real purpose of the campaign has been to attempt to divide the loyalties of Australia and the US, and to send a warning to other governments of what can happen if they do not capitulate to the wishes of Beijing.

Australia has enjoyed strong support for its stand on China from within the region and among the world’s big powers of Europe and North America. Rather than normalise relations with Australia, Beijing has stepped up its rhetoric against others. In comments to the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation CEO Summit on Thursday, Mr Xi warned the Asia-Pacific region must not relapse into Cold War-style confrontation. “Attempts to draw ideological lines or form small circles on geopolitical grounds are bound to fail,” he said. China – which has slapped $20bn in trade bans on Australian exports and frozen high-level engagement with Australian ministers – would “forge an Asia-Pacific partnership based on mutual trust, inclusiveness and win-win co-operation”.

Meanwhile, in Glasgow, China and the US are claiming a new spirit of co-operation on climate change. They will establish a Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s that will “meet regularly to address the climate crisis and advance the multilateral process, focusing on enhancing concrete actions in this decade”. The agreement is lacking in substance but reflects a new co-operation between Washington and Beijing that is of interest to Australia. Throughout negotiations with President Joe Biden’s climate tsar, John Kerry, Beijing had attempted to link co-operation on climate change with a long list of grievances against the US. The CCP’s concerns ranged from the South China Sea, Taiwan and Hong Kong to visa restrictions on Communist Party members, increased supervision of Chinese students, sanctions on Chinese companies and the US extradition request targeting Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Ms Meng subsequently has been released from detention and returned to China.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden has clumsily sidelined Australia in attempts to make peace with France in the wake of the AUKUS deal. Mr Biden’s apparent indifference to Australia’s diplomatic position is of greater concern than the slight felt by French President Emmanuel Macron in losing a national defence contract.

Former prime minister Paul Keating said on Wednesday that Australia had lost its way with China and was now “very much at odds with its geography”. According to Mr Keating, “engagement with China, and its absorption in the region, will establish a better framework for both China and the US to work in, including Australia”. He said China’s ambition towards Taiwan was not an issue for Australia.

Foreign editor Greg Sheridan says Mr Keating’s portrayal of Beijing as “being supremely benign – just given to a little occasional rudeness – is basically nuts”. And US Studies Centre nonresident senior fellow John Lee argued on Thursday that to submit to a Sino-centric hierarchical order is to accept and internalise the right for Beijing to coerce, dictate and define the terms of any bilateral agreement. By entering the AUKUS deal, Australia is reinforcing the shared values – including a commitment to democracy, freedom and a rules-based order – held with our greatest allies. Mr Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, reaffirmed on Thursday the agreement was a “big bet” on Australia grounded on a bedrock of trust. Rejecting Mr Xi’s warnings of a new cold war, Mr Sullivan said there was no reason competition had to turn into conflict or confrontation. Australia is not hostile to Beijing. It is China, not Australia, that has refused to hold high-level talks. Any sign that China is prepared to deal fairly in trade and international affairs is a welcome development.