Long history to Beijing’s move to capture Sogavare

Missing from the political debate over the budding relationship between Beijing and Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has been any sense of a much-needed historical perspective. As Pacific expert Rowan Callick wrote in Inquirer on Saturday, few Australians have much of a clue about our new-found Pacific family and wrongly assume that China’s Pacific interest is new. For decades Beijing has skirmished with Taiwan for diplomatic loyalty in the region and under Xi Jinping China’s ambitions to project power have risen exponentially. Mr Xi’s New Era rhetoric aims to seduce nations into accepting the inevitability of “the West declining and the East rising” as China seizes the dominant position in the world.

Mr Sogavare clearly was singing from the Beijing song sheet when he declared switching his country’s diplomatic allegiance away from Taiwan had put the Solomons on the “right side of history”. The relationship has moved quickly from diplomatic recognition for the Chinese Communist Party, away from Taiwan, to a security pact and, as we reported on Monday, potentially a new maritime agreement that could lead to the construction of wharves, shipyards and submarine cables. The leaked draft of a “Blue Economy” memorandum of understanding has heightened concerns that China is seeking to build a military presence in the Solomons by stealth. Mr Sogavare’s ambition to draw his nation closer to China is at odds with results of surveys across the Solomons that found more than 91 per cent preferred alignment with liberal democratic countries. Seventy-nine per cent said the Solomons should not receive financial aid from China and 83 per cent said there was corruption in their national government.

Alexander Downer, who was foreign minister during part of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands to stabilise the country, has provided a valuable insight into how Mr Sogavare does business. Mr Downer branded Mr Sogavare a “rogue” with “absolutely no respect for the law”. He said Mr Sogavare had railed against Australia’s assistance to Solomon Islands after a period of sustained lawlessness “because it was interfering with his governance plans”. In China, Mr Sogavare has found a partner prepared to make big promises and provide discretionary funds to facilitate political support. Foreign affairs and defence correspondent Ben Packham has provided deep insight into the network of family advisers and supporters behind Mr Sogavare’s rule, dating back to 2006 when the Solomons Prime Minister nominated fugitive lawyer and accused sex offender Julian Moti, now deceased, for attorney-general. Robson Djokovic, who fled Papua New Guinea with Moti, remains at the centre of Mr Sogavare’s inner circle. An Australian citizen, Mr Djokovic is Mr Sogovare’s nephew, chief of staff and closest confidant.

Calculations about Australia’s diplomatic and political engagement with the Solomons must be realistic about conditions on the ground. Scott Morrison has said Australia remains aware of China’s plans in the Pacific following the leak of the proposed blue water agreement involving the Solomons and Beijing. The Prime Minister said he didn’t believe the security agreement between Honiara and Beijing was in the Solomons Islands’ “national interest”. Throughout the federal election campaign, the ALP has been critical of the Morrison government for allowing the Chinese to build their influence in the Solomons. Opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong said on Monday that revelations of a draft naval memorandum of understanding agreed between Beijing and Honiara was a “very serious problem” that had happened on Mr Morrison’s watch and would take a lot of work to address. Senator Wong has yet to outline how exactly this would be done. Under normal circumstances, elections and the democratic institutions of Solomon Islands would solve the issues over time. The danger in the way Mr Sogavare has opened the door to the potential for debt-trap diplomacy from Beijing makes the issue much more complicated. Talks already are advanced to delay elections due next year to facilitate the Pacific Games, which are being heavily sponsored by China.

The 90 per cent of citizens who wish the Solomons to remain aligned with liberal democratic countries such as Australia and the US no doubt can sense where this is heading. China soon will have an equivalent number of security forces in Honiara to Australia. It presents a volatile mix that must be above domestic politics and dealt with seriously and expeditiously.