End to Ukraine war must not reward aggressor Putin

It may be, as Washington correspondent Joe Kelly reported, that Donald Trump’s drive to reset relations with Vladimir Putin is the biggest thing he has done so far on the global stage – dwarfing even his audacious Middle East play in terms of its global significance. Certainly, the stakes in Mr Trump’s telephone call to the Russian despot aimed at starting immediate talks to end the Ukraine war could not be greater – for our Indo-Pacific region, as it contemplates a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, no less than for deeply worried Europe and the rules-based world order.

A single call from Mr Trump to a man he calls a “good friend” will not, of course, end the Ukraine war and the massive toll of death and destruction resulting from the Kremlin’s utterly lawless and inhumane February 2022 invasion. But it does dramatically recast the official US attitude towards the Russian ruler and prospects for achieving a deal to end the conflict after Joe Biden, with good reason, dismissed Putin as a “murderous dictator” and “thug”, and pledged total US support for Kyiv.

An end to the killing and horrors suffered by Ukraine’s people unquestionably would be welcome. But in sending a delegation led by Vice-President JD Vance to Munich to begin negotiations, it is imperative Mr Trump understands the consequences of rushing into a deal that could be seen as handing victory to Putin.

Already, as Kelly reported, there are clear signs Mr Trump is embarked on a course that suits the US rather than its worried European NATO partners. In a major change, both Mr Trump and new Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have made it clear there is now no prospect of Ukraine getting NATO membership, one of Kyiv’s main hopes. Neither, they have made no less clear, is there any prospect of Ukraine returning to its pre-March 2014 borders when Russia lawlessly snatched Crimea and then backed pro-Russia separatists in their armed insurgency against Kyiv’s forces in eastern Ukraine. As discouraging as that is for Ukraine in its fight to defend its national sovereignty, it is no less worrying for the rest of Europe, especially the Baltic States, as they anxiously watch for other signs of Putin’s aim to aggressively expand Russian hegemony. Instead of declaring solid US support for the defence of Europe in Brussels on Wednesday, Mr Hegseth’s demand was that European nations up their defence spending and take care of themselves.

That will doubtless have pleased Putin as he looks forward to the prospect of potentially getting out of his Ukrainian imbroglio on what could largely be his terms, with Mr Trump saying he wants to “work together very closely” with him to end the war, and both looking forward to visiting each other’s countries. Both, according to Mr Trump, had “reflected on the GREAT HISTORY OF OUR NATIONS, and the fact that we fought so successfully together in WWII”.

That’s all very well, but Mr Trump would be unwise to ignore the grave threat to European security that could potentially follow any peace deal that effectively hands Putin victory in his brutal Ukrainian gambit. Neither should he ignore the way Beijing is closely watching developments, seeing in any possible cave-in of US and Western support for Kyiv and effective “victory” for the Russian despot an encouraging sign about what might happen if it invades Taiwan. When Putin launched his invasion, most of the world united to condemn his “unlawful use of force” against a sovereign, democratic nation. Three years on, the Russian despot’s assault on the country remains no less an outrageous attack on the rules-based world order. Mr Trump must be firm in his quest to end the war and not give in to the unlawful aggression of the indicted war criminal in the Kremlin.