Kelly does no favours to electorate that backed him

Governing while relying on the support of a stroppy media tart sitting as an independent would be a challenge for any political leader. Craig Kelly’s resignation from the Liberal Party has cost the Morrison government its working majority in the House of Representatives. It potentially could create problems for the government for the remainder of this term. Mr Kelly, however, has promised to support supply and confidence bills and “seek to vote in a manner consistent with all official policies that the Coalition took to the 2019 election”. But all bets will be off, presumably, on legislation unforeseen two years ago. Mr Kelly could resist any new developments on climate change policy, for example, such as legislating a target for net-zero emissions by 2050. Cases such as that would put the ball in the opposition’s court.

Given his determination to be re-elected in Hughes, his Sutherland Shire seat that borders Scott Morrison in Cook, Mr Kelly also could be expected to favour populist, egocentric positions if difficult decisions needed to be made on cutting spending. He holds Hughes with a margin of 18,800 but it remains to be seen how safe he will be next time without brand Liberal behind him. Joining the Nationals or One Nation would be unlikely to help his chances of retaining the seat. Mr Kelly’s defection suggests he believed he had a better shot running as an independent than securing Liberal Party preselection. After the Prime Minister rebuked Mr Kelly three weeks ago for his outspoken comments about corona­virus treatments, government sources said it was increasingly unlikely that Mr Morrison would intervene to back Mr Kelly in any preselection battle in ­Hughes, as he did in 2018. In resigning, Mr Kelly has shown scant regard for the people who voted him into parliament and for those who saved his preselection.

The longer-term consequences of Mr Kelly’s resignation remain to be seen. As Greg Sheridan wrote on Wednesday, centre-right politics has collapsed or fractured in many nations. This is evident in Europe, especially in France, and in the US, where the Republican Party is under stress between Donald Trump’s populism on one hand and a more traditional centre-right tradition of governance on the other. The coherence and unity of the Liberal-Nationals Coalition have been strengths for national centre-right politics in Australia for decades. But mavericks such as Don Chipp, Bob Katter, Pauline Hanson, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Cory Bernardi have defected previously. Some caused ripples, others unleashed storms. But Mr Kelly’s move seems to be mainly about him.

Mr Kelly’s defection may increase the chances of an election this year. At this stage the government looks set to travel well without him, but he could be an unwelcome distraction. But well-managed minority government can be a springboard to majority government, as was the case for Peter Beattie in Queensland and Steve Bracks in Victoria. Mr Beattie’s bold strategy after he was elected with 44 seats out of 89 in 1998 was the right one. He said he would govern as though he had a working majority of 10. He succeeded. Similarly, after forming minority government in 1999, Mr Bracks was returned in a landslide in 2002.

In a difficult week for the government, Mr Morrison’s leadership authority was evident when Anthony Albanese tried to goad him about Mr Kelly. “If the Leader of the Opposition is feeling so confident about the performance of his opposition, perhaps he would like to bring on a motion,” Mr Morrison said in reply to the first question on Tuesday. Mr Albanese also got short shrift from Mr Morrison on Wednesday: “If he thinks he has control of this house, I invite him to move the relevant motion or stop showing off.”