Keating’s ridiculous realpolitik

AUKUS now means muscle, with Defence Minister Richard Marles affirming that the agreement with the US and Britain covers the transfer of three nuclear-powered submarines to the Royal Australian Navy and the supply of nuclear reactors when our own are built in Adelaide. But former prime minister Paul Keating told ABC television’s 7.30 on Thursday that the Albanese government’s commitment to AUKUS, and the US alliance that makes it possible, “will make any Labor person cringe”.

Not those who remember the wisdom of two Labor immortals, John Curtin and Bob Hawke, who blazed the track the Albanese government is extending. In December 1941, just weeks after Japan started a war of conquest in the Pacific, prime minister Curtin said: “Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.” In 1988, prime minister Hawke, addressing the US congress, endorsed US engagement in Asia and spoke up for the alliance in the context of Australia’s responsibility for its own defence, “self-reliance, modernisation, regional commitment and the development of strong, independent military capabilities within the framework of the alliance”.

Hawke was over-optimistic, sadly, about the capacity of the Australian Defence Force then and, thanks to insufficient resources and failed resolve by Labor and Coalition governments since, little has changed. Recently in The Australian, former army chief Peter Leahy warned the ADF was now a “strategic liability” for allies. But at least the government, following on from Scott Morrison’s initiative, is laying the foundations for a navy capable of protecting Australia. Which would not be necessary, Mr Keating told the ABC, “if we did not have an aggressive ally like the United States … there would be nobody attacking Australia. We are better left alone.” No, we are not, because undefended Australia would be incapable of ensuring our own national interests, which is why AUKUS and the US alliance are essential.

Mr Keating claims China “has no strategic designs upon Australia”, which is correct in so far as it means an invasion. Australia is too big and too far away to conquer. But China is far from benign. Left unchallenged in the air and under the oceans, it could bend Australia to its will from thousands of kilometres away by interdicting exports, blocking fuel supplies or cutting communications cables. There are just 24 days’ use of petrol and 20 of diesel in the country at any given time. And if China convinced a government of Solomon Islands or, worse, Papua New Guinea to host naval and air forces of the People’s Liberation Army, the risk would be much closer.

Mr Keating also argues Australia should keep clear of the US because of its determination to protect the people of Taiwan “who are sitting on Chinese real estate”. What the people of Taiwan want does not appear to bother him. Taiwan is not “a vital Australian interest” is the core of his argument. “We have a continent of our own and a border with nobody.” The only threat Australia faces, he says, is our aggressive US ally. This is the realpolitik of the ridiculous, which assumes there is no community of interest among democracies and that dictatorial regimes such as the Chinese Communist Party respect other nations and govern in the interests of their subjects at home. They don’t, as Ukrainians and Russians know and Asian democracies, notably Japan, The Philippines and South Korea, have reason to fear. The AUKUS pact is the best way to ensure the CCP knows that if push comes to shove, Australia has the will and the power to shove back.