A painful toll, but dialogue won’t stop nuclear warheads

As some Israelis, including civilians, and more Iranians die as the two nations attack each other, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “never again is now” comment is as pertinent now as when Israel launched its pre-emptive bid to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations last week. An experienced wartime leader without illusions about Iran, he is determined to ensure his people do not perish in a nuclear holocaust, an ambition that could save millions of people across the world if he succeeds. The attack is justified because, as Israel’s ambassador to Australia, Amir Maimon, says, the Islamic theocracy’s pursuit of nuclear weapons cannot be negotiated away “as if words can stop warheads”. Foreign Minister Penny Wong on the ABC on Sunday urged “a return to dialogue”, de-escalation and restraint. Sensibly, she did not criticise Israel’s action, and acknowledged the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s right to defend itself. As Mr Maimon noted: “History has shown what happens when the world ignores regimes that preach hatred, promise annihilation, and are left to build the means to carry it out … Iran isn’t hiding its intent, it declares it. And it’s building the weapons to fulfil it.” It has flagged its desire to “wipe Israel off the map”. This is why, Mr Maimon says, “Israel cannot afford the illusion that existential threats are empty words. We have a duty to act, to protect our people.”

Two potentially significant issues have begun to come into play since Friday. One is the question of how far the US would go, at the risk of becoming deeply embroiled in the conflict, to help Israel complete its mission. From the outset, US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio distanced America from Israel’s campaign. But as The Wall Street Journal reports, the US military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, lending important support to the Iron Dome, which is holding well. In doing so, it is tilting Washington towards more involvement. The existing level of support raises a key operational issue. The US is better equipped than any other nation to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear targets, including those buried deep in a mountainside at Fordow, south of Tehran, with powerful bunker-buster bombs.

Israel has already inflicted damage on Iranian nuclear sites. These include the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60 per cent. International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council the above-ground section of the facility had been destroyed, The Times of Israel reports. The Israel Defence Forces also struck an Iranian nuclear facility near Isfahan, 440km south of Tehran, IDF spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin told a press conference. And Mr Netanyahu says Israel will face challenges hitting nuclear sites deep underground.

The other issue raising its head is the possibility, however unlikely in the short term, of regime change in Iran, where the ayatollahs’ repressive rule is unpopular and the economy is a shambles. In a regime that punishes women for not covering their heads modestly enough, signs are emerging that the rulers are uneasy. That was clear on Saturday, Amanda Hodge writes, when Iran’s chief Islamic judge, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, warned that any citizen who posted social media comments supporting Israel would face up to six years in jail. Israel’s hits on Iranian oil and gas installations are proving effective. With those industries weakened, Iranian air defences crippled and terrorist proxies decimated, the ayatollahs’ top priority, in addition to building a nuclear arsenal and repelling Israel, has become regime stability.

The possibility of escalation makes the war highly dangerous. And as Iran targets Israeli civilians, the stakes increase. But Iranian evil is such that the region will be a safer place only if Iran is forced to abandon its nuclear ambitions.