Eyes on ultimate prize in face of China intimidation

Australia’s relationship with China is of mutual benefit yet multifaceted, ever evolving, often fraught and requiring high maintenance. Just like the US, Britain, Japan and others, we are locked in a new dynamic of co-operation and competition with a rising economic and military power. As we ease social restrictions and guide our economy out of COVID-19-induced suspended animation, the China relationship is sliding into a deeper freeze. Australia has poked a humbled dragon by leading calls for an independent international inquiry into the source of the pandemic. Scott Morrison may have been first to move, but other nations quickly found their voices. For such temerity — an inquiry is unremarkable and in service of all humanity in seeking the truth — China is striking back. Last month, its “wolf warrior” envoy to Canberra warned us of retaliation via consumer boycotts. Other nations, take note.

Beijing is carrying out its threat in a ham-fisted way, no matter how its lackeys present a proposed 80 per cent tariff on our barley or the suspension of licences of Australian beef producers. These are wilful moves to disrupt fruitful commercial contracts; they hurt China’s producers and consumers, too, undoing the diligence and enterprise required to crack a lucrative market, putting distrust, uncertainty and unreliability into supply chains. It’s a losing ploy. At a diplomatic level it is gauche goading and bullying. The Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Marise Payne have responded firmly, calmly and with dignity to this derision and hostility. They’ve also ignored the opportunism of locals who’ve lost sight of the national interest in the quest for a news-cycle win, the spotlight or profits.

We should not forget, as Senator Payne noted what’s at stake, “that it is a valuable relationship for Australia, it is a valuable relationship for China”. There’s a long shared history of trading and cultural exchange. Generations of Chinese migrants and their children have thrived here, enriching our nation. In 2014, the countries elevated relations through a comprehensive strategic partnership after a historic free trade deal. At the time, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Australia to help it achieve “the Chinese dream” of not only economic primacy but also turning “China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by the middle of the century”. Such a goal, no doubt sincerely expressed, has escaped the Middle Kingdom. Mr Xi has shunted his country on a different path. It is richer, but also authoritarian, repressive, militaristic, territorially ambitious and brazenly interfering in the affairs of other nations.

Those pathologies have reinforced the view among Australians to be neither subservient nor economically dependent on China. A Lowy Institute poll shows 68 per cent of us view China less favourably since the pandemic. Former head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Peter Varghese, warns Australia’s and China’s interests are no longer aligned; the strategic partnership should be abandoned. COVID-19’s destruction has exposed companies to foreign takeover; Canberra is now vetting all potential foreign investment. Strategic hawks are pushing for far more weight to be placed on national security in these decisions, as well as reversing deals such as the Port of Darwin lease. As we report on Saturday, China’s direct investment has dropped by as much as 60 per cent. Recalibrations are inevitable but challenging for a capital-hungry nation. Yet we must continue to have a constructive relationship with a rising power: the problematic China, that is, not the one we would prefer.

That does not mean limiting the pursuit of our national interests in the Indo-Pacific region or the world at large. As Paul Monk argues in Inquirer, we need now, quietly and efficiently, to deepen our “strategic competence”, seek to diversify our trade and better understand China. “We must play for time, strategic position and the rebalancing of the global liberal order,” Monk writes. All the while, he adds, the Chinese Communist Party, its lupine envoys and malign state operatives will be looking “to intimidate, exhaust or entrap us”. We cannot, of course, give in to coercion or set aside our values. We are a mature liberal democracy; politics here are robust and messy, with rights to free association and free speech. Differences of opinion are mediated, if not always cherished by the majority. It’s who we are and aspire to be: a sovereign nation with obligations beyond our borders on human rights, free trade, justice and pandemic truth. So far, Mr Morrison and his ministers have held their nerves and tongues, eyes fixed on a longer strategic horizon.