Dangers in Putin’s next move

Vladimir Putin’s rant to Russians late on Monday night leaves no doubt about the depth of the crisis he faces after last Saturday’s attempted putsch by the Wagner mercenaries. His attempts at strongman rhetoric did nothing to mask his plight, caught between a power struggle at home and a badly misjudged war against Ukraine that, for him, has become the stuff of nightmares. But just as it would be foolhardy to count on his imminent overthrow by forces unleashed by the insurrection, it would be unwise to ignore the likelihood he will launch even greater savagery against Ukraine as a way of reasserting his much-diminished authority. That is why the Albanese government should heed calls to do more to help Ukraine win a battle for freedom and decency. It may be 15,000km away but it is vital to Australia’s interests.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s push back against criticism of the government’s new $110m Ukrainian military support package announced on Monday raises the question of whether the government really grasps what is at stake. It may be, as she says, that the government has doubled the dollar amount of our support for Ukraine. But, as Greg Sheridan noted, the package is worth barely $110m, generously valued, and is “anaemic”. Its centrepiece 28 MII3 armoured personnel carriers date back to the Vietnam War. The Australian Defence Force did not bother to deploy them in Afghanistan or Iraq. The Ukrainians wanted more Bushmasters or Hawkei vehicles. Defence Minister Richard Marles said the Hawkeis would not be forthcoming because of “issues” he could not discuss publicly. Yet, as Sheridan wrote, “we manufacture Hawkeis and Bushmasters … we could give them in substantial numbers to Ukraine”.

The inhumanity expected from Mr Putin after the failed putsch should prompt the government to think again, as Peter Dutton urged on Tuesday. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief claims Russia is poised to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with devastating consequences. There is intelligence, too, suggesting Moscow is about to go all out to destroy Ukraine’s agriculture, turning Europe’s former breadbasket into a basket case and ending food supplies to many impoverished countries. That is the ugly reality the world faces after last weekend’s attempted putsch.