Ambitious, belated plan to increase naval firepower

The deteriorating strategic outlook across the Asia-Pacific region and the world makes the Albanese government’s move to boost the size and firepower of the Royal Australian Navy a necessity, not an option. In responding to the review headed by retired US admiral William Hilarides of the navy’s surface combatant fleet, the government has released an ambitious plan with new initiatives, especially the decision to double the navy’s surface fleet from 11 to 20 warships by the mid to late 2040s. In addition, the plan envisages a semi-experimental semi-autonomous fleet of six large optionally crewed surface vessels, each with 32 missile cells. Such vessels, still at the developmental stage, essentially would be robotic missile platforms, requiring minimal crews. They are to be built at the Henderson shipyard in Western Australia between 2035 and 2045.

One of the centrepieces of the plan is a new fleet of 11 general-purpose frigates, to be built overseas and locally, to replace the ageing Anzac-class frigates. The troubled Hunter-class anti-submarine frigates project, which has been beset with cost and weight issues, will be retained but reduced from nine to six boats. The first will arrive in 2034, and their effectiveness will be boosted by the addition of Tomahawk cruise missiles following criticisms that the original design left them badly undergunned. Across the medium to long term, Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines, to be bought under the AUKUS pact forged by Scott Morrison and continued by Anthony Albanese, to the government's credit, also will be a cornerstone of our defences, with the first sub expected to arrive in early 2040.

AUKUS, like the initiatives in the naval review report, will not enhance Australia’s defence preparedness in the next few years. That is the nature of naval and other hi-tech defence procurements. In the interim, gaps as vessels are retired or dry-docked will be a serious problem. Had governments acted earlier, the problem would not have reached a point at which the government was unwilling or unable to send a warship to the Red Sea to help deal with Houthi rebels sabotaging commercial shipping. It is ironic (and alarming) that Iranian-backed Houthis probably have a better strike capability than the Australian Defence Force, as opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie says.

The key question raised by Tuesday’s announcement is money. The independent review found a $25bn funding hole in the navy’s surface fleet program. The government has committed itself to injecting an additional $1.7bn across the next forward estimates and $11.1bn in additional funding across the next decade. As Defence Minister Richard Marles said, that comes on top of the investment of an additional $30.5bn in Defence’s Integrated Investment Program until 2032-33, which brings investment in the surface fleet to $54.2bn in total across the next decade.

While it has come too late – a shortfall for which both sides of politics are responsible – taking defence spending as a proportion of gross domestic product from just over 2 per cent to 2.4 per cent by the early 2030s, which this plan will require, is a step in the right direction. Given the usual long delays and cost blowouts in buying defence equipment, it would be naive, however, to assume the costs of the new vessels and equipment discussed on Tuesday will even approximate the figures released. Large defence announcements such as this are too often followed up by slow implementation and, ultimately, budget cuts, as chief international correspondent Cameron Stewart writes. The other major risk, as always, is political will. Starting with the next four years, defence will need a larger and growing share of consolidated revenue. That underlines the importance of economic policies that maximise growth and productivity, and contain unnecessary blowouts in social spending.

Staffing to fill new and existing positions also will be a significant challenge for the navy and the government. But the plan is a welcome improvement on last year’s budget, which squibbed the need for increased defence spending despite the release weeks earlier of the Defence Strategic Review. The DSR warned that Australia faced strategic risks more serious than any seen since World War II. The expansion outlined by Mr Marles has possibly come in the nick of time. It must be followed through by this and future governments. Since the release of the DSR, China has commissioned about 20 warships as part of the largest naval build-up in peacetime history; Russia and Iran are becoming more combative by the week. Australia has run out of time to dither.