ALP repeats yesterday’s mistakes

While Scott Morrison admits to borrowing heavily from the advice and tactics of former prime minister John Howard, his opponents are in danger of repeating the same mistakes that kept them from office throughout the Howard years. The image of Mr Howard crafted by the Australian Labor Party and sections of the media during his time in office from 1996 to 2007 was of a leader who was tricky and lacking in compassion. The incumbent Prime Minister is portrayed by critics as lacking conviction and being motivated by marketing more than core beliefs. In reality, both Mr Howard and Mr Morrison are seen very differently by the bulk of the electorate to the caricatures presented by their opponents.

Much of Mr Howard’s success was owed to him championing the cause of aspirational voters, which captured the support of trade workers and outer suburban and regional voters who traditionally had been linked to Labor. Far from being uninterested and marketing driven, Mr Morrison is able to identify and connect with the spiritual values and everyday concerns of many Australians. With the big-spending budget having been well received, Mr Morrison is turning further towards the Howard model with a pitch to aspiration.

Stoking the looming battlefront with Labor over the legislated third tranche of tax cuts, Mr Morrison correctly says voters want to be in charge of their lives. It is a message that runs counter to fashionable sentiment among many in the commentariat that Australia and much of the world is entering a new era of big government, high taxes and increased intervention by the state in the lives of citizens.

It is true that in response to the pandemic the Morrison government has embraced big-spending support programs funded by borrowings and high deficits to keep the economy primed. But it is sending clear signals to the electorate that it values self-reliance and voter independence, and is focused on employment.

Labor remains fixated on the low rate of wages growth, ignoring the government‘s good record on employment. In question time on Monday, the opposition repeatedly criticised the government for delivering stagnant wages despite record borrowings. But Josh Frydenberg says the government remains faithful to Liberal tradition in that wages growth will be driven best by increased business competition and higher productivity.

One result of misunderstanding a political opponent, whether it be Mr Howard or Mr Morrison, can be disbelief and shock when elections do not go according to the anticipated script. The Upper Hunter by-election in NSW last Saturday should be a wake-up call for Labor and members of the left-wing media to remember the lessons of past defeats and not keep repeating the same mistakes. As we said on Monday, it is difficult to translate the results of a state by-election to the federal sphere. And there are features unique to the current electoral environment because of the pandemic. This includes a voter premium for incumbency, which has yet to be tested at a federal level. But, despite efforts by Anthony Albanese to downplay its significance, there is no way to sugar-coat the reality that for Labor the by-election result was an unmitigated disaster. Federal member for Hunter Joel Fitzgibbon has warned the result is a catastrophe of existential proportions.

Inconceivably, there are sections within Labor who still believe the Upper Hunter result was bad because the party did not go far enough in its support for a transition to renewable energy and away from fossil fuels. Many in the media cannot understand that government support for a 660-megawatt gas-fired peaking power station at Kurri Kurri has wide appeal to people whose livelihoods rely on stable and affordable power supplies, including workers at the Tomago Aluminium smelter. An incredulous ABC presenter, Fran Kelly, needed a lesson from Mr Fitzgibbon on why the government policy to keep high levels of dependable supply of electricity in the market was the right one. Mr Fitzgibbon says the issue for Labor is one of trust. Voters believe Labor says one thing on its support for coal workers and gas but will do another. As a result, Mr Fitzgibbon says, the Labor brand risks going the way of former photographic giant Kodak. The government is turning up the heat and will target Labor heartland seats to chase working-class voters Mr Morrison says are more closely aligned with the values of the Coalition than the ALP. To fight back, Labor must break free of any false narratives and delusions it has about its opponents and connect with the issues that voters really care about.