Allies marshalling vital strengths

Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s disclosure that Australia will get the first of our nuclear-powered submarines five years ahead of schedule is unalloyed good news. With China aggressively enhancing its offensive military capacity in every sphere of potential conflict, including space, the overwhelming need since the announcement of the AUKUS pact in September has been, as Greg Sheridan has written, to achieve a delivery date for the submarines “in a relevant time frame”. Mr Dutton’s disclosure, in an interview with Cameron Stewart, goes some way towards attaining that objective when, as Sheridan notes in Inquirer on Friday, “the pace and scale of strategic change is unprecedented”.

The new delivery date means the first of the nuclear subs should be in service around the same time, 2035, that was the target date for delivery of the French-built, diesel-powered submarines before they were cancelled. The initial delivery estimate at the time of the AUKUS announcement was 2040. If realised, Mr Dutton’s new timeline would remove any danger of a capability gap in the submarine fleet between the arrival of the nuclear-powered boats and retirement of the Collins-class submarines. The six Collins subs will be overhauled to extend their life until they are gradually phased out between 2038 and 2048. Promising as the new timeline is, the Morrison government should lose no opportunity to further expedite delivery of the new submarines. China’s unrelenting military build-up across the region and beyond demands no less.

Even in space, as Mr Dutton said, “the race is on” to ensure the Australian Defence Force’s effectiveness through “situational awareness, delivery of real-time communications and information”. Australia would work with allies such as the US, he said, to counter efforts by China and Russia to develop ways to cripple crucial Western satellite and space-based communication systems. China is “surging ahead” in the race to weaponise space and gain a major strategic advantage. A US Space Force commander, General David Thompson, concedes “China could overtake the US and become the No.1 power in space by the end of the decade … the threats are really growing and expanding every single day … they’re fielding operational systems at an incredible rate”.

China, Mr Dutton told Stewart, is conducting itself in space in a “not dissimilar (way) to what we are seeing on the water in the East China Sea, on the land border with India, and in their clashes with The Philippines and with Vietnam and others”.

And that is only part of the relentless, broadbased build-up of muscular military strength achieved by Beijing during the past 20 years. By last year, as Alan Dupont wrote earlier this month, China’s navy had surpassed that of the US in terms of battle force ships, with 355 to 297. The gap is widening rapidly each year, with China’s Huludao shipyard turning out a new nuclear-powered submarine every 15 months. China’s navy is on track to have three combat-ready aircraft carriers by 2027, the minimum number the People’s Liberation Army considers necessary to take Taiwan and deter the US from intervening.

By 2035, when we should have the first of our new submarines, China will be able to deploy six carriers, matching US strength in the Pacific. The message signalled by the Chinese build-up is clear. Australia must work closely with the US and other allies to ensure our defences are well prepared for any challenges. The disclosure by Office of National Intelligence director-general Andrew Shearer that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Australia, the US, Japan and India) is building a Quadrilateral Strategic Intelligence Forum as a new pillar in the defence of the region, in addition to the Five Eyes group, is just as important. Intelligence co-operation among allies has seldom been more vital. It will be even more crucial if China steps up its aggression on land, sea and in space.

On the cusp of a new year, its militarism is posing a profound challenge.