After bizarre race, decision day in the great democracy

As the world awaits the US election result, supporters of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – and, indeed, Australians, whatever their preference – should not be overly apprehensive.

As the insightful Peggy Noonan, Ronald Reagan’s speechwriter and adviser, argued in The Wall Street Journal before the poll: “A great democracy faces a bad choice. Trump and Harris both have obvious flaws. (But) I believe our institutions will see us through, not because they are strong – they’re shot through with ideology and self-seeking – but because they’re strong enough for the moment. Our courts, our laws, the free press, the academy, the military – all have taken hits over the past decade, many self-inflicted. But they stand and can do the job. There’s more health in our sick structures than we can see.”

That has been clear over recent months as Joe Biden’s incapacity worsened. The “messy monster of a campaign’’, Noonan wrote, might even revitalise democracy: “It’s the big story underneath the big story.”

After years of bitterness, rancour and violence, it may appear difficult to accept her relatively sanguine view. Much, obviously, will depend on how Ms Harris, Mr Trump and their supporters react to defeat or victory and whether they abide by the rules and conventions that have, for hundreds of years, governed US elections. There must be no repetition of the appalling January 6, 2021, attack by Trump supporters on that pillar of democracy, the US Capitol. Mr Trump, whether he wins or loses, carries a heavy responsibility to ensure that does not occur. Ms Harris, too, must ensure that the Democrats, win or lose, will uphold the law and the decisions of the election umpire.

If both sides do so, whether it is Ms Harris or Mr Trump who is sworn into office on January 20, 2025, the optimism of US allies such as Australia should be rewarded. It would be surprising if that is not the case. The four years of the Biden administration has been a textbook example of the closeness of the US-Australia alliance, regardless of whoever is in the Oval Office and in power in Canberra.

No bilateral initiative in recent history has been more significant than the AUKUS pact, which was concluded by former prime minister Scott Morrison with Mr Biden and has since been shepherded well by Anthony Albanese. The AUKUS deal also shows why fears in Australia about what could happen if Mr Trump wins are misguided.

After working closely with Mr Trump during his term in the White House, Mr Morrison described such fears as “hot air and hyperventilation”, pointing out Mr Trump was “on the record of supporting the alliance strongly, and the genesis of AUKUS was under his administration”.

As the former prime minister said, however, Australia would need to be “on its game” if the Republican emerges as the winner, warning Labor would have to dramatically recalibrate its diplomacy to deal with Mr Trump’s “unorthodox approach” to international relations.

That is good advice which, depending on the outcome, the Albanese government should heed. It is what all allied governments around the world will need to do, depending on who is the next US president. Ms Harris, if she wins, may be more conventional and predictable than Mr Trump. But regardless of the outcome, whoever is in government in Canberra will need to cultivate and maintain a close security and economic relationship with Washington.

Noonan is right to counsel against despair. As The Australian has long argued, voters in the great democracy have been confronted by a bad choice. Both Ms Harris and Mr Trump have obvious flaws. But that is no reason to be afraid. It may be, as Noonan says, that this extraordinary campaign enlivens US democracy. All who admire our greatest ally hope that it does.