Trump is attempting to fast-track a peace deal by bludgeoning Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, to the negotiating table through temporarily freezing $US1bn ($1.61bn) in American military aid to Ukraine.
But in doing so he has further strengthened Vladimir Putin’s hand in a prospective peace deal, which is looking more lopsided each day.
Where is Trump’s reciprocal threat to Putin – that he will impose devastating sanctions on the Kremlin until Putin demonstrates a commitment to a peace deal?
Putin has not said a word about peace or given the slightest hint he will offer concessions in any deal, yet he has been given a free pass by Trump, who does not want to antagonise the dictator. By contrast, it is Zelensky, the leader of a democracy that was invaded, who is being heavied by Trump to make all the concessions even before negotiations with Moscow begin.
The freezing of US aid to Ukraine, were it to continue, would eventually tilt the three-year war sharply in Russia’s favour, and Trump believes this fearful prospect will force Zelensky to accept concessions that will enable a peace deal to be concluded sooner rather than later.
He may be right, but Trump is playing with fire here. Any pause in US military aid – even a short one – will have a ripple effect on the battlefield, where Ukrainian troops are already struggling to hold the line against Russian forces. Ukraine now will lose its supply of air defence systems, long-range rocket artillery, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and navigation systems, as well as face threats to ammunition supplies. This will have life-and-death consequences on the frontline.
As such, it puts Zelensky in a terrible position. If he does not agree quickly to Trump-imposed concessions in any peace deal, he faces the prospect of fighting the rest of the war without US support. This is a nightmare scenario because even though European leaders have vowed to step up their support for Ukraine after last week’s disastrous Trump-Zelensky Oval Office showdown, they are not able to replace the large US military aid package at short notice.
It is true Zelensky could have played his hands more carefully when dealing with a glass-jawed and agitated Trump. Zelensky’s comment that an end to the war was still “very, very far away” was ill-advised given that Trump is clearly looking to fast-track any peace deal.
Zelensky’s quip, so soon after their Oval Office brawl, sent Trump into a rage, saying “America will not put up with it for much longer!” and “This guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing”.
Just hours later, Trump froze all US arms and ammunition to Ukraine in the pipeline and on order.
The decision means Trump alone will determine at what point Zelensky has demonstrated enough commitment to peace for that restriction to be lifted. But don’t bet on it being lifted quickly, because the freeze itself might become a bargaining chip for Putin in negotiations.
From Putin’s position, this outcome further reduces his incentive to strike a deal, because every day Trump’s arms freeze remains in place is a day Russian troops can secure an advantage over Ukrainian forces on the frontline. Trump has given Putin the luxury of time to strike the toughest possible bargain in any peace deal, knowing every week delayed is a week he becomes stronger on the battlefield and therefore stronger at the negotiating table.
Trump is more invested in Ukraine than he pretends to be. He portrays himself as willing to walk away from Ukraine permanently, but he would be condemned by history if the ultimate outcome of a failed peace process was the taking of more territory by Russia.
The stakes could not be higher and yet Trump is taking wild risks that make the prospect of a fair and balanced peace deal less likely by the day.
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Donald Trump’s decision to freeze all US military aid to Ukraine is one of the most consequential and dangerous gambles we have seen in international diplomacy.