Dangerous signs Labor has miscalculated the federal budget

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers may have frontloaded the good news in their first full Budget in power.

There are dangerous signs emerging that Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have miscalculated on their budget sales pitch by front-loading all the good news and leaving the focus on whether the $21bn spend will boost inflation.

The morning after the budget that had a centrepiece of $14bn of cost-of-living relief for those on the lowest incomes, the Prime Minister, the Treasurer and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher all faced repeated challenges on whether inflation would rise.

What’s worse for the government is the next logical step if inflation either rises or fails to fall – that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates again – has become a measure of failure for the Albanese’s government’s first full budget.

Ahead of the budget, all the good news announcements to help the unemployed, single mothers, parents and families were designed to reassure people that the offers of relief over the past 12 months would be realised.

Jim Chalmers addresses the National Press Club after delivering his first full budget.

But, after the budget, as well as the predictable claims that the relief wasn’t enough, there was immediate focus on whether the inflation dragon would be slayed – or kept in its cave.

Even the last big good news item in the budget – the tripling of Medicare bulk billing – hardly rated a mention as the leadership team spruiked the budget.

The consistent theme was “Is the budget inflationary?” and the constant test being applied was “If inflation doesn’t fall as forecast, or if interest rates rise again, is the budget a failure?”.

A single-issue, post-budget public discussion not about a political positive – with tough questions coming from all quarters – is not helpful for a government.

After his traditional post-budget speech, Chalmers faced more questions about inflation and whether a rise in interest rates or inflation not falling meant he had failed.

The problem for Labor is there is a growing perception that there is an objective test of whether the budget has failed. Another rate rise or a stubborn elevated level of inflation will mean that not only has the budget pitch failed but also there will be a substantive failure.