Crucial by-election needs to be a slam Dunkley for Labor

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addresses the media in a press conference in the Sydney Parliament Offices. Photo by: NCA Newswire/ Gaye Gerard

Anthony Albanese has concluded a memorable finish to 2023. He was called a “handsome boy” by his new BFF in China; lost his most senior press secretary to resignation; reportedly tasted $500 bottles of wine while on holiday in Western Australia; and spent almost $4m on travel in one year.

But of all the many low points to pick from in 2023, he arguably saved his best until last, when the Prime Minister gaslit his own ­Albanese voice.

Albanese airbrushed any mention of it from his Christmas message and went further by saying he had nothing to do with the voice referendum on which he staked so much. To the soundtrack of Shaggy’s “It wasn’t me”, he excused himself by saying First ­Nations people were used to being let down.

But if you thought 2023 was bad, 2024 is shaping up as Albanese’s Annus Horribilis. Cost-of-living pressures aren’t going anywhere. Interest rates will remain high. The floodgates of ­migrants – unleashed by Labor to avoid a recession in Australia – will still be fighting for already scarce houses and units, and drive up costs with further demand in a supply-constrained market.

Albanese has been called out by Noel Pearson as reportedly “running away” from First Nations issues. He is trying for a crass reset by saying cost of living is now his number one issue for 2024, as he reiterated in his bizarre press conference on Wednesday.

He said that before the 2022 election and again in 2023 on Ben Fordham’s 2GB – and look how that turned out.

But in early 2024, Albanese will be tested by the voters. There will be a by-election in the Victorian seat of Dunkley caused by the passing of the very popular Labor MP Peta Murphy. The by-election means Albanese may no longer be able to avoid having to meet some voters. He might have to talk about the cost of living rather than the Albanese voice, while keeping Toto One parked up on the tarmac in Australia’s time zone.

Peta Murphy

The by-election will be scheduled by the Speaker, Milton Dick, and the PM will have to cut whatever wine tasting holiday he had planned overseas and schlep his way down to the bayside shopping centre at the heart of Dunkley.

Doubtless he’ll still look to spend three days on the beers at the Australian Open in nearby Melbourne and maybe even have to stomach three hours at an Australia Day citizenship event at the Frankston Council Chambers in Dunkley.

Dunkley has a margin of 6.3 per cent. This matters because below that margin Labor holds a further 16 seats. It’s a critical bellwether seat that only the Victorian division of the Liberal Party could stuff up from here and not win.

The southern part of the seat is Liberal-voting. It was the reason why the seat was held by the Liberals until as recently as 2019. The rest of the seat is older working class and newer mortgage belt voters, living at the end of the suburban train line to Melbourne.

Milton Dick

It voted 56 per cent No to the voice. This is no Aston, but rather the quintessential electorate of lower and middle Australia being crushed by the Albanese government’s tin ear on the current cost-of-living pain. Instinctively, they know elites don’t care for their plight.

The Labor Party has consistently performed better in Victoria than elsewhere in Australia. Victoria has kept Labor in the game as states like Queensland have underperformed and shrunk the Labor vote federally.

A Peter Dutton win in the supposedly progressive, green-tinged southern state would send a huge wake-up call to a complacent, timid and impotent Labor caucus lulled into stupor by Albanese’s many excuses.

Federally, Labor is already in considerable trouble.

Labor in WA will lose seats on an inevitable post-Mark McGowan correction. It remains deeply vulnerable to the Greens in McNamara and Wills.

An independent in Hawke could make the well-coiffed Sam Rae take out the 2025 Kristina Keneally award for trashing a “safe” Labor seat.

Myopic left-wing commentators and some lazy journalists think Dutton’s only path to victory is to win back all the teal seats. But what if Dutton didn’t need to win them, but instead win enough directly from Labor? Only 34 out of 151 seats voted for the voice; only 21 of Labor’s 78 seats voted for Albanese’s voice.

LAbor MP for Hawke Sam Rae

The PM’s personal numbers are in free fall, providing a clear drag on Labor’s already alarmingly low primary vote. He doesn’t do shopping centre walk-throughs anymore and appears distracted and aloof.

Dunkley will be a referendum on the cost of living. But issues like the release of foreign murderers, rapists and pedophiles will also feature.

Hopefully, Labor will be able to hold on to Dunkley, with the strong showing of the new Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan and Treasurer Jim Chalmers on the hustings.

Community goodwill to Peta Murphy and her hard work will also help Labor resist any anti-Albo sentiment in the electorate.

If Labor loses Dunkley, we’ll no doubt have Foreign Minister Penny Wong take time from planning her nuptials to intone that “by-elections are notoriously hard for governments to win” as she moves from appeaser to apologist.

The more important lesson for Labor would be that Dutton is competitive. This year will be a crucial test for Albanese, and the Dunkley by-election will be only the start.