Frankston Mayor one of four Libs to nominate ahead of Dunkley by-election

Labor has appointed members of its campaign team, but is yet to choose a candidate.

Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy, left. Picture: Frankston City Council

Four candidates will vie for preselection to run for the Liberals in the Victorian federal seat of Dunkley, with Labor yet to determine when or how it will select its pick to replace popular local member Peta Murphy, following her tragic death from cancer this month.

Negotiations continue between the major parties and Speaker Milton Dick to determine the timing of the by-election for the outer southeastern Melbourne seat, but it is unlikely to be held before late February.

The Liberal Party will hold its preselection convention on January 14, with those expected to nominate including Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy; former state MP for the local seat of Carrum Donna Hope (nee Bauer) who currently works for state MP Chris Crewther; fellow Crewther staffer and former Carrum candidate Bec Buchanan; and former Senate and state upper house candidate David Burgess.

While Labor national secretary Paul Erickson has appointed a manager and media contact for the ALP’s Dunkley campaign, it is not yet clear who is likely to seek nomination for the party, and therefore whether a preselection contest will need to be held, in the event of more than one nomination.

Those being talked up as possible contenders include Peta Murphy staffer Madison Child, an international relations and public policy graduate in her mid 20s who grew up in Frankston; local nurse Georgia Fowler, who ran for Labor in Mr Crewther’s state seat of Mornington; and Committee for Frankston & Mornington Peninsula CEO Joshua Sinclair.

Former state MP Donna Hope is nominating for Liberal preselection in Dunkley. Picture: Wayne Taylor

Historically an ultra-marginal seat, Dunkley was at times narrowly held by Liberal veteran Bruce Billson for 20 years until 2016, when Mr Crewther ­defeated Ms Murphy to hold the seat for the then Turnbull government with a two-party-preferred margin of just 1.43 per cent.

With some help from a redistribution which made the seat notionally Labor, Ms Murphy defeated Mr Crewther in 2019.

Her first term as an MP was rewarded in 2022 with a 3.53 per cent swing towards Labor — more than double the statewide swing of 1.69 per cent — ensuring the ALP enters the forthcoming by-election with a 6.27 per cent buffer.

One Liberal insider said the party must preselect a local who is well-known and has political experience in order to have a chance in what is widely expected to be an uphill battle for the Labor-held seat.

“We need three circumstances to go our way to succeed,” the Liberal said.

“We need national sentiment to swing towards the Libs, which I think is happening, but we also need preferences to flow our way. And finally it’ll depend on how good our candidate is.”

A Labor insider said there was similarly a strong preference in the ALP to preselect a local.

Dunkley is centred on Frankston, but extends along the Mornington Peninsula to Mount Eliza, as well as taking in Seaford, Carrum Downs, Skye, Sandhurst and Langwarrin.