Coronavirus: Ultimate test for NSW ‘gold standard’ of contact tracing

Northern Beaches residents line up at Mona Vale hospital for COVID-19 testing. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

We are about to find out once and for all if the NSW contact tracing system and state health processes really are better than Victoria’s.

I don’t mean to sound crass at such a delicate time, but this is the ultimate test. A comparison public policy experts can mine data from for years. Victoria’s second wave could have been avoided with better contact tracing. While I applaud Victorian Premier Dan Andrews for standing his ground when locking down hard, the need to do so came after contact tracing failed.

I had written about the problems with Victoria’s contact tracing in advance of the second wave. And again during it. The fact Victoria ended up seeking guidance and assurance from NSW was clear evidence it knew it had much to learn.

But the Victorian Premier was always prepared to lockdown earlier than the NSW Premier. We may also be able to use this last outbreak as a comparative analysis on that front too.

The Prime Minister has enjoyed labelling NSW contact tracing the gold standard. It’s about to be tested as the north shore cluster grows. This is Melbourne all over again, unless NSW really does operate under a gold standard.

Victoria’s public health systems were too centralised which is why contact tracing failed. Slow to react to developing clusters. Testing times were way too slow when the outbreak happened in Victoria. In NSW the public health units are decentralised which allows for faster responses and localised efforts can prosper.

This outbreak is exactly the sort of outbreak NSW should be able to contain and control. We shall see. Perhaps the unwillingness of NSW to jump into lockdown may mean the virus gets way from officials.

I know from talking to them that public health officials are worried about this cluster on Sydney’s north shore. But they have confidence in the systems in place. Nonetheless they expect postcode based lockdowns to eventuate and state borders to perhaps once again close.

This is yet another reminder just how dangerous this virus really is, and how wrong the fools who told us to “let it rip” were. Sweden and the United States should be evidence enough of that. Unfortunately, however, we live in a post truth world.

But take comfort in how well Australia has done during COVID-19. The rest of the world is suffering in a way even Melburnians can’t understand.

We are still the Lucky Country. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University