Coronavirus Australia: Scott Morrison has risen like a phoenix from the summer bushfires

Prime Minister Scott Morrison visits bushfire-ravaged communities on the Gold Coast last year (left), and hard at work in his office during the coronavirus crisis. Pictures: AAP, PMO

Scott Morrison would not be the prime minister he is today if he had not learned from the significant mistakes he made during the bushfire disaster last summer.

The most effective leaders learn from what they get wrong. It can be a humbling lesson. It took a failure of leadership in one crisis to make sure he did not fail in the next. Morrison was scarred by the bushfires. He misjudged the public mood and what was ­expected of him. He went on holiday abroad. He struggled to identify a role for the federal ­government and to work effectively with the states. He lacked empathy. When he met people who were fighting fires, or had lost loved ones or their homes, they did not want to shake his hand.

A Cobargo resident refuses to shake Scott Morrison’s hand in January. Picture: Supplied

Based on this track record, there was little faith that Morrison would rise to the challenge of dealing with a pandemic and an economy sinking towards a depression. It took a while to find a sure footing. But, by any objective measure, he has. Morrison often has often been underestimated. It is a mistake Labor makes again and again. Morrison is not only a clever politician; he has become an effective national leader too.

The first thing was to acknowledge the seriousness of the threat of COVID-19. It demanded listening to the government’s expert advisers. It required a marshaling of national and state leadership and resources through the ­national cabinet. It needed a co-ordinated national and bipartisan response. And it meant reading the public mood and expressing believable empathy.

Although I have been critical of some of the early public health decisions, or lack of them, and the systems put in place at airports and ports, the government still has introduced measures in a timelier manner than many other countries. There are promising signs our infection rate is declining, and the number of deaths is low compared with overseas. But it requires continued vigilance.

Scott Morrison (left) and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg put the finishing touches on a statement before addressing the media last month. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO

The government’s economic response with subsidies, payments and supplements has been extraordinary. Political orthodoxies have been shattered. No Australian government has spent so much so soon. It has cushioned the impact of COVID-19 on individuals, businesses and investors. And it dwarfs the response to the global financial crisis in 2008-09.

Dividing lines have been forgotten. It is remarkable to see Labor premiers praise Morrison’s approach, and he praise theirs. “Both Scott (Morrison) and Josh (Frydenberg) should be very proud, as well as their teams, the way they’ve turned this around so quickly,” Victoria’s Daniel Andrews said. “No policy response is ever perfect, but I think they’ve got the balance right.”

You have not heard this from Anthony Albanese. The latest Newspoll, published yesterday, shows voters overwhelmingly endorse Morrison’s response to the pandemic. The Coalition leads Labor on the two-party vote 51-49 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote is up to 42 per cent, while Labor is at near-historic lows, falling to a dismal 34 per cent. Morrison’s turnaround in such a short period is the greatest in Newspoll history and he’s the most popular Prime Minister in more than a decade. Morrison crushes Albanese as preferred prime minister 53-29 per cent.

Scott Morrison on his way to a National Cabinet meeting at Parliament House. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO

There is often a lift in support for incumbents during times of crisis. But this is not always the case. If it were, then Morrison would not have suffered a fall in support during the bushfire disaster. This is the flaw in the argument that Morrison, simply because he is the Prime Minister, is getting a natural bounce in the polls. It ­assumes voters are fools.

The point is that leadership must be demonstrated. Morrison’s response to the bushfires was defective and that is why he declined in the polls. Moreover, there are degrees of a crisis bounce. The so-called “rally around the flag” effect has not dramatically boosted Donald Trump’s support, for example.

Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: AAP

In the immediate aftermath of the bushfire crisis, senior Labor MPs wrote off Morrison’s prime ministership. They thought he had suffered a collapse in voter support to such a degree that he would not recover. They thought the next election was already won. This was a mistaken judgment that was shared by some in the media. Politics does not work like that and never has.

Just as Morrison misjudged his response to the bushfires, Albanese misjudged his response to the coronavirus. Newspoll confirms this. Albanese diminished the national cabinet that he wanted to join. He and other Labor MPs attacked the health and economic response to COVID-19. The Opposition Leader’s characteristic “I fight Tories” approach is out of place at this time.

The squabbling over the $130bn JobKeeper package is a case in point. Labor should scrutinise policy and keep the government to account. Parliament should sit during the crisis. But inflated and petulant attacks are not constructive criticism.

Was Labor ever going to vote against what it essentially urged the Coalition to adopt? No. So the carping and complaining is just posturing. It is not the bipartisanship that voters crave.

Politics is a learning profession. Nobody comes to the prime ministership fully formed as a politician and can remain that way. To be effective, prime ministers must adapt and respond to circumstances, and keep doing so.

This is the ultimate test and obligation of leadership. Morrison, for now at least, has the confidence of voters that he is doing what is required of him at a time of national crisis.