Confident Anthony Albanese immersed in self-belief

Anthony Albanese is confident he can beat Peter Dutton and claim a second term, despite Labor’s primary vote being at historic lows. Picture: Gaye Gerard/NewsWire

Anthony Albanese’s self-confidence in his campaigning prowess, popularity and legacy is a sight to behold.

Behind in the polls, on track to lose majority government and with his personal appeal at its lowest level, the Prime Minister believes he will comfortably defeat Peter Dutton.

In politics, self-belief is a prerequisite trait but self-awareness should not be underestimated.

With incumbent governments copping backlash from voters bearing the brunt of inflation-fuelled cost-of-living pressures, Albanese must take accountability for Labor’s broken promises.

Before the 2022 election, Albanese said “if I get something wrong – I’ll own up to it” and pledged to “unite the country and bring people together”. Instead of blaming others for not lowering power bills by $275, leading the Indigenous voice referendum to a heavy defeat and being flat-footed in response to anti-Semitism, ­Albanese should put up his hand and acknowledge mistakes.

He and Labor claimed victory in 2022 with one of the party’s worst primary votes on record, despite the deep unpopularity of Scott Morrison and nine years of Coalition rule.

The ALP’s slim majority win was built on Greens preferences, the rise of teal independents and massive swings against the Liberals in Perth.

Labor hardheads remain mortified by the party’s primary vote plunge.

The 2022 ALP election review, chaired by Greg Combet and Lenda Oshalem, repeated warnings made in previous reviews.

“Despite the Morrison government’s unpopularity, Labor’s primary vote did not increase and in fact fell to its lowest level since 1934,” the review said.

The review linked the primary vote fall to the unpopularity of major parties, the rise of independents and Greens, Labor’s “attack Morrison” strategy, policy offerings, swings against the ALP in Tasmania and “dissatisfaction with Labor in some heartland seats in Melbourne and Sydney”.

To lift the primary vote, Combet and Oshalem said Labor must focus on “wages, the cost of living, housing availability and affordability, childcare and education, Medicare and health, jobs and economic growth as well as infrastructure”.

Across January and in coming weeks ahead of the election, which must be held by May 17, ­Albanese will almost exclusively focus on these issues, spending tens of billions of dollars amplifying core Labor issues.

While Albanese didn’t have the best of election campaigns in 2022, slipping on key economic figures early and being forced off the trail after testing positive for Covid, the 61-year-old understands the gruelling nature of a federal campaign and importance of discipline and consistency.

Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton attend a Holocaust Memorial in Yokine in Perth on Monday. Picture: Pool/NewsWire

The Opposition Leader has displayed exemplary discipline and consistency but the pressure of being under the brightest of spotlights over days and weeks will test his political skills and patience. Fighting Labor, the teals and Greens, Dutton cannot rely on preferences. If the 54-year-old wins a majority with a primary vote of around 42 per cent, it would be a Coalition miracle.

Some Coalition strategists, who believe they can get close but can’t win outright, are focused on a two-term strategy. A messy and discombobulated minority Labor government would likely spell the end of Albanese and open the door for a big Coalition victory.

Dutton, who will push hard for the win, has claimed underdog status and tempered expectations, declaring last week: “We’ve got a long way to go, a first-term ­government hasn’t lost since 1931, so history is against us.”