Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll fall is slow and steady compared to more catastrophic collapses

While Anthony Albanese has avoided something that befell all his predecessors in the past three decades, he has suffered a seemingly inexorable decline in support.

While Anthony Albanese has avoided a sudden drop in personal support like his predecessors, he has faced a decline over a number of months. Artwork: Frank Ling

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For his first 2½ years as Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese has avoided something that befell all his predecessors, Labor and Liberal alike, in the past three decades: a sudden, catastrophic fall of personal support in Newspoll.

Every prime minister since John Howard’s election in 1996 has had a sudden fall in Newspoll’s satisfaction ratings of between eight and 24 percentage points after breaking a major promise, a failure of leadership or a loss of public faith after a bad decision.

Albanese has suffered a decline in satisfaction – falling 10 points over an eight-month period to Monday’s first Newspoll of the year – but it has been more of a gradual decline without the short, sharp jolt of a catastrophic fall that all his predecessors had suffered.

Only Howard survived such a catastrophic collapse in popular support as prime minister to lead the government to the next election and win.

Anthony Albanese speaking to John Howard, the only recent prime minister to have Newspoll approval ratings as bad as his and survive. Picture: Gary Ramage/NewsWireNCA

Howard’s catastrophic fall in support by 14 percentage points in just six weeks was a result of his ­decision to adopt a GST at the next election – 1998 – after pledging to “never ever” introduce a goods and services tax.

He kept the Liberal leadership through to the election, which he won after a massive loss of seats and a slashing of the Coalition’s huge majority. Howard remained prime minister after the election and went on to become Australia’s second-longest-serving prime minister.

He is the only PM to survive then go on to prosper after a catastrophic loss of personal support.

Howard’s immediate successor, Kevin Rudd, and then Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, all lost their leadership or the ensuing election after they all had catastrophic losses in the Newspoll ­satisfaction survey.

A tearful Kevin Rudd speaks to reporters after the Labor leadership spill in Canberra on June 24, 2010. Picture: AAP

Rudd and Abbott were ­replaced by their colleagues after failing on climate change and immigration and breaking budget promises and appointing Prince Phillip as a knight in the Australia Day honours list, respectively.

Gillard won the 2010 election after replacing Rudd but then suffered a catastrophic loss of support – 11 points – when she broke her election promise to never lead a government that had a carbon tax.

Julia Gillard in 2010 when she famously stated there “will be no carbon tax”.

The Labor government never recovered and Rudd replaced ­Gillard as Labor leader and prime minister shortly before losing the 2013 election.

Although Abbott won with a sweeping majority at the 2013 election, his personal support suffered two big hits when he broke election promises not to cut health and education and then when he surprised even his own colleagues by making Prince Philip a knight.

Tony Abbott on the day of Malcolm Turnbull’s successful push to replace him as Liberal leader in 2015. Picture: AAP

Turnbull, who had been undermining Abbott’s leadership, used the fall in Abbott’s satisfaction and the Coalition’s fall below the ALP on two-party preferred ratings in Newspoll. Turnbull won the 2016 election after losing all but one of the seats Abbott won in 2013 after he had suffered a 21-point fall in satisfaction between November 2015 and March 2016 and went on lose 11 points between July and October 2016.

Malcolm Turnbull after being reduced to a one-seat majority in 2016. Picture: AAP

After falling behind in Newspoll surveys for longer than ­Abbott had, Turnbull was ­removed as leader in a challenge that was won by Scott Morrison.

Morrison scored a surprise election win in 2019 but then has a catastrophic loss of support – eight points – after being criticised for being absent during the 2019-20 bushfires and then ­another round of losses after the attacks on the government over the Brittany Higgins rape allegations.

Scott Morrison’s infamous Hawaiian holiday during the 2020 Black Summer bushfires.

In 2022, Morrison lost to Albanese who, as opposition leader, had targeted Morrison as prime minister over the bushfires and the Higgins ­furore.