There is no doubt Minns is the superior candidate. Minns, 41, represents generational change. He has a young family, lives in the suburbs, is community focused and has a master’s degree from Princeton. He was the party’s assistant secretary and worked as a ministerial chief of staff.
As one of the more active frontbenchers, regularly gaining media attention, Minns will be more effective in holding Gladys Berejiklian to account while outlining an alternative policy agenda. He made water a major campaign issue ahead of the 2019 state election and has raised his profile further in the shadow transport portfolio. Daley has spent the past two years on the backbench.
Rather than being a negative and carping opposition, Minns says, Labor should be positive and optimistic while continuing to scrutinise the government. He would refocus the party on policy development and problem-solving with the purpose of driving growth and creating jobs, lowering the cost of living and improving service delivery.
Minns was the better choice to lead the party than the likeable but lifeless Jodi McKay. The caucus and party membership, voting in equal proportion, decided differently. But McKay lacked cut-through and the party has drifted in the past two years. It lacked a coherent political strategy and a fresh policy agenda. And it has not been able to capitalise on a scandal-plagued government.
It is absurd that Daley thinks he should return to the leadership. He led Labor to its second worst election defeat in more than a century. The party’s vote declined to 33 per cent. He took over the leadership from Luke Foley, who resigned after a sexual harassment scandal, and presided over a fall in the party’s support. Foley made Labor competitive, with the party sometimes ahead in the polls. The most disgraceful aspect of the short-lived Daley leadership was his xenophobic comments about young people from “Asia with PhDs” taking the jobs of young Australians.
“Our kids are moving out and foreigners are moving in and taking their jobs,” Daley said before the 2019 election. He also repeatedly stumbled on the details of Labor’s policies. His campaign was a train wreck.
Daley, 55, is also a reminder of Labor’s most discredited period in power. He was a minister in the corrupted Keneally government. (Those cabinet ministers or Labor MPs found by ICAC to have acted corruptly in this period include Tony Kelly, Ian Macdonald, Joe Tripodi and Karyn Paluzzano.) That is an era the party must put behind it. Daley has been in parliament for 15 years. Labor cannot go back to the future by making Daley its leader.
To stand for the leadership, Daley needs 15 MPs to countersign his nomination. Labor MPs expect Minns to have the support of around 30 MPs, perhaps as high as 35 or 36 out of a caucus of 50. This means Daley might struggle to get the requisite support to nominate. The contest could be over before it begins.
NSW Labor is a snake pit of competing ambitions, simmering hatreds and festering recriminations. The circulation of a dirt sheet about Minns by the staff of former deputy leader Yasmin Catley underscores the rotten culture within the party. The staff member responsible was sacked. But it defies credibility to believe other staff, including those in McKay’s office, did not know about it.
The NSW Right faction was once recognised for its unity and ability to topple leaders with ruthless efficiency in the name of political pragmatism. Those days are over. When McKay resigned last week, after initially refusing to go in the wake of the disastrous Upper Hunter by-election, the party, faction and union leadership seemed hostage to events and without a clear plan. It comes as some worry the Right faction’s hold on power at the state conference in October will be razor-thin.
Party general secretary and Right faction convener Bob Nanva lacks authority. He favours Minns over Daley. But McKay’s resignation was messy. After she resigned, the party did not have a leader, deputy leader or leadership candidate for 48 hours. Federal Labor MPs are stunned by how Nanva has managed, or not managed, this. Minns and Daley are both from the Right faction.
Labor’s poor performance in the Upper Hunter by-election has federal Labor MPs concerned. Labor raised expectations of victory. It did not run a “send a message to the government” campaign. If Labor did not contest the seat, it probably would have fallen to One Nation or the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. This would have been a blow for the Coalition. With NSW a key battleground at the next federal election, Labor MPs are worried about the party’s campaigning capacity.
If there is a leadership ballot – I doubt Daley can remain a viable candidate – Minns will prevail. He will become leader at a challenging time and on his third attempt. He will need to unite the party, develop a new policy and political strategy, and overhaul the frontbench. He should ensure the party recruits new candidates to win Coalition seats and encourage Labor MPs in safe seats to retire.
The next election is not until March 2023. The pandemic favours incumbents and Berejiklian has handled it well. But her government is plagued by corruption and sex scandals, and the Coalition lacks a parliamentary majority. The next election, well after the pandemic, will be a real contest.
But only if Labor has a credible leader – and that must be Minns.
Historic election ushers in a new era of challenges
Albanese faces major economic and national security issues.
Existential crisis for smashed Liberals
Australia has been remade in political terms in one of the most extraordinary elections in our history. Anthony Albanese is an enhanced Prime Minister, while the Liberal Party faces its worst ever crisis.
The bitter contest between Chris Minns and Michael Daley to lead NSW Labor has exposed a party that is deeply divided, confirmed the once mighty NSW Right faction is diminished, revealed the party’s organisational leadership is weak and its campaigning capacity is a shadow of what it was.