B52s in NT sign of growing ‘pre-war’ environment

A US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress.

The drumbeats of potential war are sounding across the world.

This is not alarmist, it’s real­ity. Sensible leaders are doing all they can to avoid war, mainly through strengthened deterrence. But the disturbed feeling of a pre-war period is unmistakeable.

The news that facilities will be constructed at RAAF Base Tindal that could house six American B-52 strategic bombers has to be seen in this context. It’s both nothing new and quite revolutionary. The idea B-52s would spend time in Australia goes back to agreements signed by Julia Gillard and Barack Obama. B-52s already exercise in Australia but haven’t landed at Tindal.

We are extending the size of the Tindal runway to make their presence here more frequent and longer in duration. And we’re building facilities that could house up to six B-52s, which means they will rotate in and out like the US marines in the Northern Territory.

Everything in Australian defence gets announced at least 100 times and takes at least 10 years longer than it should. But sometimes the context changes decisively. And the announcement when something actually happens is more important than the preceding 99.

The B-52 is a genuine strategic bomber. It can carry nuclear weapons. The US has a triad of nuclear capabilities. Its nukes can be launched from the air, the sea or the land. This makes it impossible for any enemy to imagine it could knock out US nukes in a pre-emptive strike. The US policy is that it will never say which submarines or aeroplanes are actually carrying nuclear weapons. This policy led to New Zealand bugging out of the ANZUS alliance in the 1980s. Wellington demanded the US declare whether its ships or subs were carrying nuclear weapons before they would allow them to visit Kiwi ports, with the idea they’d be allowed in only if they didn’t have nukes.

Naturally the Americans will neither confirm nor deny such matters. To do so would be immensely valuable to the US’s adversaries. The whole episode shows what a wretchedly useless strategic friend New Zealand is.

Jacinda Ardern has already confirmed that if Australia gets nuclear-powered subs under the AUKUS agreement they won’t be allowed to visit our cousins across the ditch.

The idea that we would have B-52s semi-permanently stationed in northern Australia, or at least rotating in and out like the marines, is good for our security and the region. It ties the US to our security and to the region. It enhances US deterrent power. But let’s be quite clear what it means for war-fighting.

The B-52 bombers will have the ability to deliver powerful strategic strikes on Chinese bases and assets in the South China Sea, and indeed in the South Pacific should any ever be developed there. They could also fly from the Northern Territory to mainland China itself, unleash a payload and fly back. Northern Australia is not the most efficient place to attack China from, but it can be done.

There’s no suggestion Australia will build nuclear weapons storage facilities in northern Australia. But any US B-52 could be carrying a nuclear weapon at any time. In the event of a military conflict, that gives the Chinese more to worry about and another priority target in Australia. But don’t fret, there are already a half-dozen such targets in Australia, not least the Pine Gap communications facility, which would certainly be a priority target for Beijing in the event of a serious military conflict with the US.

All these dark possibilities are extremely unlikely, but be assured military planners are calculating every permutation of these capabilities.

Why do I say the general context is so suggestive of a pre-war period? Consider just this small sample of statements from the past few weeks. Recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Beijing could use force against Taiwan in pursuit of unification within the next year. I had the pleasure of interviewing the impressive Blinken a few months ago. No senior official could be less likely to shoot his mouth off. This assessment must be grounded in real intelligence.

He said “a very different China” had emerged under Xi Jinping and “Beijing is determined to pursue reunification (with Taiwan) on a much faster timeline” than had previously been thought.

US Admiral Michael Gilday, the Chief of US Naval Operations, has suggested that China could invade Taiwan this year. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau director-general, Chen Ming-tong, said China could threaten next year to invade Taiwan to force it to negotiate reunification.

In an interview with The Australian just before his summit with Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned China’s aggressive military actions in the region and said Japan would fight to “defend our territory, territorial waters and territorial airspace, and to uphold a free and open international order with the US-Japan alliance forming the cornerstone of our peace and stability”.

The Australia-Japan Joint Security Declaration, signed by Albanese and Kishida, explicitly echoed the wording of the ANZUS Treaty. It said in particular: “We will consult each other on contingencies that may affect our sovereignty and regional security interests, and consider measures in response.”

Japan is prevented by its constitution from engaging in a full military alliance with anyone other than the US, and even with the US it has some limitations. But this is as near as it can possibly get to an alliance without formally being an alliance. Canberra proposed the ANZUS-style wording and no one in the region – certainly not Beijing – missed this. Japan has already quadrupled its defence spending since the first Australia-Japan Joint Declaration in 2007. Kishida is committed to increasing Japan’s military budget to 2 per cent of gross domestic product and, like Australia, wants mis­siles and the ability to strike back against an enemy (to wit, China).

This is not even to mention that Vladimir Putin has reimposed the blockade on Ukrainian grain exports, which not only hurts Ukraine but also many of the world’s hungry. He has also engaged in bizarre talk of Ukraine planning to use a “dirty bomb”, a radiological weapon, against Russia. There is no basis to this at all but it could conceivably be used as a pretext for Russia to do something itself along these lines, or worse.

Russia has also become completely dependent on China, while it is simultaneously growing closer to Iran.

In this environment, deterrence is critical. The B-52s in northern Australia are part of the US extended nuclear deterrence that Australia enjoys. But we need much, much more.