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ASX 200 slips; DroneShield halts after rollercoaster; Rio greenlights Simandou spend; IGO impairment; SunCable NT approval

DroneShield shares hit an all-time high before a 22 per cent drop after negative report. AEMO chief warns nuclear will take too long. Rio preps for $US6.2bn Simandou spend. IGO flags up to $295m nickel blow. Ex-RBA boss Lowe turns ASX punter.

Equity market sentiment is bullish ahead of earnings season and as rate cuts loom on the horizon. Picture: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Equity market sentiment is bullish ahead of earnings season and as rate cuts loom on the horizon. Picture: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Tuesday, July 16. The ASX 200 index ends down 0.2 per cent to 7999.3 points with mining stocks the weakest. US retail sales data are in focus later Tuesday.

The Aussie dollar is near US67.40c at 4.55pm AEST.

Updates

Citi upgrades Nickel Industries to Buy

Citi's Kate McCutcheon upgrades Nickel Industries to Buy after the share price fell about 14 per cent in the past 10 week and as she sees positive EPS momentum from consensus upgrades coupled with a "now cleansed" 1H EBITDA trough.

McCutcheon says the company's 55 per cent owned ENC HPAL is ahead of schedule with first production expected in Q3CY25 but most of consensus is yet to incorporate ENC earnings in EBITDA.

"Additionally, we think consensus expectations on costs are too high for NIC's newer RKEF's ONI and ANI," McCutcheon says.

"NIC is a bottom quartile producer and has demonstrated profitability through cycle with committed production growth to capture pricing upside.

"With nickel sub 17,000 a tonne, nickel production cuts, should support sentiment/price. NIC is now the only pure-play nickel producer left on the ASX."

Citi has a $1.05 target on NIC.

Shares closed down 1.7 per cent at $0.845.

ASX 200 slips from record high

Australia's ends a three-day winning streak before US retail sales data.

The S&P/ASX 200 index ends down 0.2 per cent at 7999.3 points after touching an intraday low of 7996.9. Eight of 11 sectors fall with materials weakest.

It comes after the index rose 2.6 per cent in three days as lower than expected US inflation data fuelled expectations of US interest rate cuts, prompting a rotation from US mega caps to value, cyclicals and small caps.

BHP falls 1.4 per cent, Rio Tinto loses 2.5 per cent and Aristocrat dives 3.3 per cent. DroneShield plunges 22 per cent on a negative report after hitting a record high.

Banks are mixed with CBA down 0.2 per cent and NAB up 0.4 per cent.

Goodman Group jumps 1.5 per cent, Mirvac gains 1.9 per cent and Block jumps 3.5 per cent. IRESS surges 5.5 per cent.


Citi upgrades BluesScope to Buy

Citi's Paul McTaggart upgrades BlueScope Steel to Buy from Neutral.

"We think US steel prices are now near their lows with a post Northern summer uptick expected and with US monetary conditions set to turn expansionary," Mr McTaggart says. "Conversely, we see volume risk in Australia given expected base rate increases."

Amid falling US and Australian export HRC spreads, he trims his FY25 EBIT to $1.11bn. Citi is at the very bottom of 2H FY24 guidance at $620m.

But with improved Asian export spreads and ramped up North Star volumes, McTaggart sees EBIT lifting to $1.58bn in FY26 and to $1.73bn in FY27 as Australian metallic coating capacity lifts and low margin exports are reduced.

His pegs BlueScope on a FY27 EV/EBITDA and price/cash earnings at 3.4/4.5 times.

"We trim our target price to $23.70 from $24 but raise our rating to Buy as we look through near term earnings weakness and likely consensus earnings downgrades," McTaggart says.

BSL closed at $20.86.

ASX 200 forming support at 8000: Capital.com

Capital.com senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda says Australia's share market is holding on to "what is becoming a massive psychological level at 8000."

"A consolidation here would be a very bullish signal," he says.

The S&P/ASX 200 index is down 0.2 per cent at 8002.5 heading into the close.

"Cyclicals underperformed, just as they did across the region, with yesterday’s Chinese data showing the growth impulse there remains weak," Mr Rodda says.

"Nevertheless, the markets remain supported by expectations for US rate cuts and what’s likely to be a solid earnings season for Wall Street."

A "Goldilocks print" for US retail sales data on Tuesday, "something that signals cooling demand but strong enough household activity to maintain a solid level of growth", could give markets a further boost.

"Looking ahead, the upside for equities will come if there’s data that supports the market pricing in three cuts from the Fed this year," he adds.

"A cut is already baked in for September, another is fully baked in by December, with 17 points of a third cut in the market for that meeting."

DroneShield continues to struggle after ASX query

DroneShield shares continue to struggle after an ASX price query.

Shares are down 24 per cent at $1.99 after diving as much as 28.3 per cent to a two-week low of $1.792 before the price query.

The company mentioned a capitalbrief.com report which cited two fund managers giving their opinion that the shares were overheated. However, it said the report "contained no new information or change of circumstance around the business."

DroneShield shares are having their worst day since a 26 per cent fall on Feb 29.

The chart is forming a bearish key reversal after setting a record high of $2.72.

Shares are up 417 per cent year to date after being up 630 per cent early Tuesday.

Barrenjoey starts Guzman Y Gomez at Overweight

Barrenjoey's Tom Kierath starts Guzman Y Gomez research coverage with an Overweight rating and $33 target.

"We are attracted to GYG’s highly scalable model, which should deliver strong earnings and cash flow growth for over 10 years," Mr Kierath says.

"GYG’s customer offer is compelling as it is highly customisable, fast, healthier vs
peers and has an excellent value proposition."

Mr Keirath says GYG’s earnings drivers include: high same store sales growth, restaurant growth, rising franchisee royalty rates, leverage to general & administrative expenses, an increasing corporate and drive thru restaurant mix, and rising corporate restaurant margins.

"The shares are currently priced for flawless execution, and delivery to date has been impressive," he adds. "Valuation needs to be assessed in a long-term sense given current profit levels are low, so the FY26 EBITDA multiple of 32 times looks reasonable, in our view, given the growth available."

The IPO was underwritten by Barrenjoey and Morgan Stanley.

Barrenjoey is the third biggest shareholder with a 10.35 per cent stake.

GYG shares are down 1.4 per cent at $26.51 late Tuesday.

AI, bank shares boosted super in 2024: SuperRatings

Superannuation funds recorded another impressive year for members with international tech and Australian banking shares driving above average returns.

In the balanced category, where 60-76 per cent of portfolios are invested in growth assets, the top three performers in FY24 were Hostplus Indexed Balanced, Raiz Super’s Moderately Aggressive and Colonial First State’s Enhanced Index Balanced.

These funds returned 12.2 per cent, 12.1 per cent and 11.4 per cent respectively.

Hostplus’ Balanced option remained the highest performing balanced option over 10 years returning 8.3 per cent per annum.

"In a repeat of 2023, funds with a higher exposure to shares and listed assets generally outperformed for the year, while those with greater exposure to unlisted property reported more subdued outcomes," says Super Ratings' Kirby Rappell.

"As a result, members who were invested in index funds generally outperformed more actively managed options, given the strong focus on, and allocation towards, listed shares."

The top performing indexed fund was Aware Super’s Future Saver – Balanced Indexed option with a return of 12.9 per cent for the year to June, while all top 10 indexed options returned double digits to members.

Members who are invested in default options also did well over the year.

Funds that have adopted a lifecycle investment style outperformed single default options due to their higher allocation to shares, particularly for younger members.

“We have noticed a trend of lifecycle options increasing their exposure to growth assets such as shares over the past 12 months,” Mr Rappell said.

“While this has benefited members this year, higher exposure to these assets also comes with increased ups and downs, and we encourage members to learn how their fund’s investment strategy works so they are comfortable with annual and long-term performance outcomes.”

Investments with a sustainable focus have also outperformed over the year with Raiz Super’s Emerald investment option reporting the highest balanced option return at 14.8 per cent.

The option was also the top performing sustainable option over 5 years, with a return of 8.4 per cent per annum.

“Managing volatility is a key function for superannuation funds, with the need to consider downside risk increasingly evident over recent years,” Mr Rappell added.

“While this has meant some funds that were more defensively positioned didn’t benefit as much from this year’s share rally, having strong diversification supports smoother returns over the long term”.

Oodie supplier cops fine over safety fails

Popular loungewear brand Oodie's supplier, Davie Clothing, has coughed up $101,280 in penalties for allegedly failing to comply with a mandatory product safety standard.

Competition regulator ACCC issued Davie Clothing with six infringement notices as it failed to include high fire danger warning labels to six different styles of the Kids Beach Oodie, as required under Consumer Goods safety standards.

An ACCC investigation into the Australian Consumer Law contraventions began following a consumer complaint.

More than 2400 of the affected hooded towel garments were sold to Australian consumers from September 29, 2022, to July 14, 2023.

The ACCC has also accepted a court-enforceable undertaking from Davie Clothing to publish a corrective notice on its website and establish and maintain an ACL compliance program.

DroneShield halts trade

Trading in AI tech stock DroneShield's shares has been halted after a rollercoaster session where the stock hit an all-time high of $2.72 before a 30 per cent slump.

Millions of shares changed hands before trading was halted at $1.86, down 28.5 per cent at 1.55pm AEST.

It's likely the huge volumes and volatile trading have triggered a 'please explain' notification from the listing compliance team at sharemarket operator ASX.

DroneShield down 30pc

Shares in mid-cap AI tech stock DroneShield are down 30 per cent to $1.82 at 1.30pm AEST with more than 34 million shares being traded.

There's no contributing news update or analyst action to blame. Melbourne-based PAC Partners' institutional sales trader James Nicolaou has his doubts about DroneShield's valuation after it hit an all-time closing high of $2.60 on Monday and an intraday high of $2.72 in trading earlier on Tuesday.

DroneShield's valuation "being stretched is an understatement," he said.

"At some point it was going to crack. This is our pure play 'war" exposure….as they say war doesn't come cheap and neither does DRO at about 90X PE! Sell".

Investors won't be too dejected though – shares in the $1.6bn group are still up 434 per cent since the start of the year.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/asx-200-may-waver-dow-hits-new-high-as-trump-trade-returns-powell-acknowledges-inflation-progress-goldman-tesla-top-gainers/live-coverage/b3c791b0d9b8f561a3583ab87d2d0b65