Time for the annual review of my 2022 predictions, followed by prophecies for 2023. Here are the 23 correct and eight wrong picks that gave me a 74.2 per cent success rate for last year.
First, things I got right. Republicans took the House with fewer seats than the post-World War II average (way less). Democrats gained governorships, but the Republican advantage in state legislative seats grew. GOP secretary of state candidates in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada (all Trump-endorsed election deniers) lost. President Joe Biden’s approval rating at year’s end was under 45 per cent.
I was right on inflation rising faster than wages. Growth softened from 2021’s 5.9 per cent to an estimated 1.9 per cent. Unemployment was 3.7 per cent in November, the last data released from the year, lower than last November’s 4.2 per cent. Covid persists but, even with more variants, is a less significant issue. Public-school enrolment remains below pre-pandemic levels. Russia failed to subjugate Ukraine. China and North Korea increased hostile actions: China against Taiwan and Kim Jong-un against everyone. Lula was elected Brazil’s president again.
Mike Tirico replaced Al Michaels on Sunday Night Football. Mr Michaels then landed at “Thursday Night Football.” Golden State became NBA champions. Jane Campion won best director for Power of the Dog and Succession won its second Outstanding Drama Series Emmy.
I was right on three of four January 6 items. Hundreds of defendants charged for the Capitol assault pleaded guilty or were convicted; few were acquitted. The Supreme Court allowed the release of President Trump’s January 6 documents. The House investigating committee found that groups planned violence for that day. But it wasn’t established that the Willard Hotel Trump command post knew that.
My really, really bad call was Roe v. Wade. The Supreme Court didn’t weaken the ruling; it overturned it. Yet while abortion rights dominated Democratic messaging, it remained a minor advantage. Every GOP governor who recently signed strong pro-life bills won re-election – in Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Meanwhile, the only Democratic governor who lost, Nevada’s Steve Sisolak, based his campaign on abortion rights. But Democrats were helped in states with abortion referendums, like Michigan.
There were other predictions that didn’t pan out. Hobbled by bad candidates, Republicans didn’t flip the Senate. The percentage of Americans saying the country is on the right track didn’t improve; it remained at 30 per cent at year’s end. Inflation didn’t decline from last year’s 6.8 per cent annual rate in November, but instead rose to 7.1 per cent. Georgia beat Alabama to become college football champs. Argentina, not Brazil, took the World Cup. Norway, not the US, won the most Winter Olympic medals.
What do I think 2023 holds?
Ukraine keeps making gains on the battlefield, but doesn’t restore its February 23, 2022, borders. The West provides critical military and economic aid, though with growing domestic controversy. Vladimir Putin throws in more men and resources, inflicting more violence on the outnumbered Ukrainians. Despite the imbalance of forces, Russia doesn’t prevail. China suffers an explosion of Covid cases and deaths. Beijing also steps up pressure on Taiwan but doesn’t invade. Europe becomes more friendly to nuclear and hydrocarbon energy.
Mr Biden declares that he’s running for re-election. A significant Democrat realises the danger this represents and, a la Ted Kennedy 1980, runs. The Republican field is a fraction of 2016’s 17 candidates – no more than six significant GOP candidates are standing by year’s end. Mr Trump’s numbers decline through the year. Mr Biden’s approval number ends 2023 below 45 per cent.
Nancy Pelosi leaves Congress this year. The Supreme Court ends racial preferences in college admissions. The S&P 500 rises in 2023. The House inquiry into Hunter Biden damages him but not his father. Oversight hearings on the border, Afghan withdrawal and Covid prove big problems for the White House. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas departs this year.
The House passes most of the 12 required appropriations bills before the next fiscal year. The debt ceiling gets raised, but it’s ugly. The U.S. avoids a recession but has at least one negative quarter. By December, nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Prices rise faster than wages. Abortion becomes a bigger Republican headache as demands from the base grow for no abortions, no exceptions.
My heart screams TCU but my head says Georgia. The Bruins take the Stanley Cup. Tom Brady plays his last game for Tampa as the Buccaneers exit the playoffs. Luka Dončić wins NBA MVP. Before the All-Star break, LeBron passes Kareem to become all-time scoring leader. Steven Spielberg, Colin Farrell and Cate Blanchett win Academy Awards. Taylor Swift grabs the Grammy for Album of the Year.
We’ll see in 12 months how accurately I’ve described Milton’s “never-ending flight of future days.”
Karl Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
The Wall Street Journal
More Coverage
Putin wins Trump-Zelensky Oval Office spectacle
US Vice President JD Vance starts a public fight that only helps Russia’s dictator.
Hegseth warned Mexico of military action if border demands not met
The US defence secretary’s closed-door comments have unnerved Mexican officials negotiating to avoid 25 per cent tariffs.