US to pip Australia for LNG production top billing
Australia to be overtaken by US as the world's biggest LNG producer in 2025 with our export volumes to plateau.
Australia will be overtaken by the US as the world's biggest LNG producer in 2025 with the nation's export volumes to plateau as demand recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown.
Despite the oil price crash, the International Energy Agency predicts North America will account for 80 per cent of exports over the next five years with volumes tripling by 2025.
The US will draw near level with Australia by 2023 and take the spot of top LNG exporter two years later under IEA forecasts.
Australia’s main rival, Qatar, is currently neck and neck for top billing with its rival declaring it would proceed with a huge low-cost expansion, threatening revenues from one of the country’s biggest export earners.
Qatar plans to lift supply from 77 million tonnes, just behind Australia’s 78 million tonnes, to 110 million tonnes in 2025 and 126 million tonnes two years later by tapping low-cost supplies from its vast North field operations.
However, the IEA said it doesn’t expect the Qatar expansion to be reflected in its export volume figures until after 2025.
“Supply from the Middle East should remain stable based on Qatar’s current export capacity, as are LNG exports from the Asia-Pacific region, with Australian exports plateauing,” the IEA said.
Major growth projects including Woodside’s giant Scarborough and Browse gas export developments have been delayed after the oil price crash crunched revenues.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates Australia’s market share of global LNG supply will shrink to 10 per cent by 2040, from 20 per cent now, as competing sources from nations including Qatar and the US grab buyers in Asia.
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