Media Watch Dog: Dr Norman Swan’s failed COVID-19 predictions; ABC unusually quiet on George Pell

Dr Norman Swan says he’s happy to be proved wrong. Picture: Twitter

STOP PRESS

HOW THE ANTI-SOCIALIST BRONWYN BISHOP OVERSAW THE (ALLEGED) ENTRY OF SOCIALISM INTO THE LIBERAL PARTY

What a stunning performance by Bronwyn Bishop (in her role as the “Thursday carry-over champion”) on Sky News’ Paul Murray Live last night. Whenever she appears on PML, Ms Bishop invariably has a go at socialism – and socialists. Usually the immediate target is Melbourne University academic and former Labor Party operative Nicholas Reece. But last night, BB’s target was none other than former Liberal Party leader Malcolm Turnbull. Let’s go to the transcript:

Paul Murray: Because I wish to be kind to my guests who may have something to say [about Malcolm Turnbull’s book A Bigger Picture], they can have 30 seconds each. But I will deem it 30 seconds and that’s it. Bronwyn, would you like to say anything or cede your time to anyone else?

Bronwyn Bishop: I’d just like to say, it doesn’t matter what he [Malcolm Turnbull] says in his book. It’s what he’s done. And he is the one who brought socialism into the Liberal Party. And it was a shame the Labor Party didn’t accept him, which is the party where he would have been at home. What he has done is he’s made us totally dependent on China. He signed the agreement for buying the French submarines. He ratified the Paris Agreement. He’s responsible for the Murray-Darling Basin fiasco. And he’s made a doctrine of climate change ruin our industries. That’s his record. It’s not what he writes. It’s what he’s done.

Paul Murray: That’s the 30. Nicholas, 30 seconds on the ghost ….

Now MWD has never waved the flag for Malcolm Turnbull. But if Mr Turnbull did bring socialism to the Liberal Party, he could not have done so without some supporters.

Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader and prime minister in a party room ballot in September 2015. At the time, many Liberals believed that — wait for it — Bronwyn Bishop voted for Malcolm Turnbull. She has never denied this. So if Mr Turnbull brought socialism to the Liberal Party, he had a little bit of help from Bronwyn Bishop along the way.

When, later, it was put to BB by Mr Reece that she voted for Malcolm Turnbull to become prime minister, Ms Bishop evoked the anonymity of the secret ballot. How convenient.

[Interesting, though. At least Sky News has panels where the anti-socialist Bishop contends with the pro-socialist Reece. It’s the kind of debate which rarely takes place on ABC panels. Just a thought. – MWD Editor.]

AN ABC SCOOP FROM JACKIE

NOTE FROM THE ABC STAFF COLLECTIVE (ER, SOVIET) CONCERNING THE HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA – AS DISCOVERED BY JACKIE (Dip Wellness, The Gunnedah Institute)

It is true that we at the ABC Staff Collective were appalled at the unanimous decision of the High Court of Australia to quash the conviction of Cardinal George Pell. It happened on Tuesday 7 April, but it feels like yesterday.

We all supported the evocation of Louise Milligan — after she learned of the woeful decision in Pell v The Queen — to “Hug your children”. We would have done a collective embrace in support, if only we were not following social distancing rules and if only we were not currently working from home in our pyjamas.

We believed in unison that only a bench of dunces would have reached the decision the High Court did. We mourned for the intellectual decline of The Hon Justice Virginia Bell AC, whom we much admired when she presented Late Night Live on ABC Radio National before the advent of Richard Ackland and Phillip Adams. For just over a week, our attitude to Justice Bell and her collaborators on the High Court was expressed as follows: “Shame, High Court, Shame”.

Mea culpa. The ABC Staff Collective now realises that our attitude to the High Court (as expressed eight days ago) was woefully inadequate. Shallow in fact. We have just heard about the unanimous decision of the High Court of Australia in Smethurst vs Commissioner of Police to quash the decision of the Federal Court in an earlier hearing. Our most esteemed judges (Hi Virginia!) have had the foresight to find that the warrant used by the Australian Federal Police to raid the home of journalist Annika Smethurst was invalid.

Mea culpa. Now we realise that our wonderful High Court acts according to the law of the land in upholding the Constitution and the traditions of common law. So much so that it is prepared to preserve the (legal) barriers against the encroachment of incipient fascism and the police state on our journalist brothers and sisters and more besides.

Mea maxima culpa. Members of the ABC Staff Collective now intend to enter a period of Mao Zedong inspired self-criticism so that the evil thoughts we once held about the High Court will be obliterated from our consciousness and from history. Ms Milligan showed us the way when she tweeted on Wednesday: “Great News, @annikasmethurst. Strength to your arm.” We all hope that this wonderful High Court will also see the light when it soon considers the case of Sam Clark. Go the High Court – with strengthened arms.

Discovered by Jackie – with apologies to Private Eye.

Gin & Tonic Time

Wednesday 15 April 2020

CAN YOU BEAR IT?

● THE (COCKTAIL) SILENCE OF MRS HINCH THE THIRD

As avid readers will recall, Media Watch Dog actively campaigned for Sky News to renew Derryn (“Call me the Human Headline”) Hinch’s contract late last year. Without fail, The Human Mumble’s show Hinch — which aired on Sky News at 8pm on Thursdays — provided MWD with lotsa copy. Especially the “Spin a Yarn” segment in which your man Hinch span a wheel of the famous people who had had the privilege of having been interviewed by The Human Headline — and spoke about the celebrity where the wheel stopped. Unforgettable television, to be sure.

Alas, MWD’s “Occupy Macquarie Park! Keep Hinch on Sky News” campaign was a dismal failure. This has made Friday mornings between hangover time and gin and tonic time (when MWD goes out) more difficult than would otherwise be the case, as Jackie’s (male) co-owner looks for breaking news or, in Hinch’s case, no-news to fill the early part of this blog.

So lotsa thanks to the avid reader who drew Hendo’s attention to Megan Lehmann’s Q&A piece interviewing Jacki Weaver in The Weekend Australian Magazine on 4-5 April 2020. Particularly this segment:

Megan Lehmann: Are you an introvert or extrovert?

Jacki Weaver: I’m very brave when I’m playing a character but I’d rather hide behind somebody at social gatherings. That was one of the great things about being married to Derryn Hinch: he’s such an extrovert – I could just stand beside him at cocktail parties and not say a word.

How about that? Here’s Derryn Hinch, a self-proclaimed feminist. And here’s Jacki Weaver (Mrs Hinch the Third) declaring that her one-time husband was an extrovert who monopolised the Hinch side of cocktail party discussions. [Might it have been all sides of all discussions? – MWD Ed]. To such an extent that the gorgeous, pouting Jacki Weaver did not get in a word edgeways. And The Human Mumble presents himself as a feminist. Can You Bear It?

● MALCOLM TURNBULL, THE GUARDIAN AUSTRALIA’S LENORE TAYLOR & KATHARINE MURPHY — AND INSIDERS

Malcolm Turnbull has revealed he played a key role in establishing the Guardian Australia. As avid readers will know, the Guardian Australia (editor Lenore Taylor, political editor Katharine Murphy) is just one step up (or, perhaps down) from the Green Left Weekly when it comes to advocacy for Green Left causes.

It seems, in 2012, that Mr Turnbull encouraged Alan Rusbridger (then editor of The Guardian in London) to make contact with multi-millionaire green leftist Graeme Wood with a view to him underwriting the first three years publication of the Guardian Australia. And the former prime minister suggested that (then) Fairfax Media journos Ms Taylor and Ms Murphy would be just great in running a leftist online newspaper. And so it came to pass. Although, as Ms Taylor argued in the Guardian Australia yesterday, the deal was some time in the making.

Hang on a minute. Aren’t these leaders in the campaign for greater transparency Down Under? Sure are. So how come Lenore Taylor and Katharine Murphy never ‘fessed up, until yesterday after they were outed by Malcolm Turnbull, that the former prime minister played a role in their current important positions in Australian journalism? Especially since, in 2012, Mr Turnbull was a player in the Australian media as the shadow minister for communications. He remained a player on becoming prime minister in September 2015.

In her self-serving article yesterday, Ms Taylor declared that The Guardian Australia was never particularly friendly to the Coalition. She neglected to mention that The Guardian Australia supported Malcolm Turnbull’s policy approach to climate change. And that she and Katharine Murphy criticised the decision in August 2018 of the Liberal Party to replace Mr Turnbull as its leader and, consequently, prime minister.

Which brings us to the ABC TV Insiders program where Lenore Taylor and Katharine Murphy are two of The Guardian journalists who are regular panellists.

Sam Clark, Insiders’ executive producer, is known to have firm views on the need for full disclosure of potential or perceived conflicts of interests. In fact, he’s often banging on about this. So what has Mr Clark said about the fact that Guardian Australia editors sat on the Insiders couch for years and discussed Mr Turnbull without revealing their link to him? So far, according to MWD’s knowledge, nothing. Absolutely, nothing. Can You Bear It?

[Er, no. Not really. I note that Mr Turnbull used to call one of Guardian Australia’s ladies “Murpharoo”. How nice. And that Ms Murphy was one of six Turnbull faves whom the prime minister called on to ask a question at his final media conference in this role. In his book The Surprise Party, Aaron Patrick described the occasion as inviting “selective questions”. Little then did the toiling masses know about Malcolm Turnbull’s role in helping to establish the Guardian Australia and in recommending its senior editorial staff, including Murpharoo – MWD Editor.]

● KERRY LOOKS DOWN ON JAMES GLENDAY

Did anyone hear James Glenday, the ABC’s man in Washington DC, on ABC Radio AM on Wednesday? After a reasonable roundup of the news about COVID-19, your man Glenday could not help himself. He felt compelled to tell listeners (if listeners there were) that the White House was engaging in “bluff” and “bluster” and that President Trump was up to his “latest antics”. It would seem that your man Glenday is yet to learn the difference between reportage and commentary.

Perhaps it’s all the influence of former ABC staffer Kerry O’Brien. Here’s pic of Mr Glenday reporting from the United States. About a third of his library consists of Kerry O’Brien’s Kerry O’Brien: A Memoir (Allen & Unwin, 2018). Can You Bear It?

The ABC's US correspondent James Glenday.

MWD EXCLUSIVE

ABC EDITORIAL DIRECTOR CRAIG McMURTRIE CHANNELS THE POPE IN REFUSING TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ON HIS (SECULAR) ENCYCLICAL

On Saturday April 11, 2020, Craig McMurtrie, the ABC’s editorial director, posted an article on ABC News — in the “ABC Backstory” segment — titled “Why the ABC’s reporting of the George Pell case wasn’t a witch-hunt”. It was a defence by the ABC of the ABC’s reporting concerning Cardinal George Pell. No surprise here.

On 15 April, Gerard Henderson sent Mr McMurtrie a series of questions about his article. The ABC editorial director declined to respond. Instead on April 16 he offered this self-serving defence: “The published piece speaks for itself and I have nothing further to add.” Media Watch Dog can only assume that Mr McMurtrie either does not have the ability, or perhaps the courage, to respond to articles on the ABC website which appear under his name. His approach to questions about his writing channels the Pope’s response to questions about one of his papal encyclicals.

The ABC’s editorial director provides further evidence — if further evidence there need be — that ABC managers and journalists expect others to answer their questions. But they often refuse to answer the questions of others.

NEVER WASTE A PANDEMIC , STARRING AUNTY’S WENDY HARMER AND VIRGINIA TRIOLI

There was enormous interest in this segment last week. It documented how ABC TV News Breakfast co-presenter, and MWD fave, Michael Rowland had used an interview with his boss David Anderson to advance the cause that the taxpayer-funded public broadcaster should get even more money from the Commonwealth government due to COVID-19 and all that. It seems that Mr Rowland and his mates are struggling to get by on a mere $1 billion a year at a time when advertising revenue for commercial media is falling away and resulting in severe job losses for non-ABC journalists. So far no one at the ABC has lost a job as a result of what Friends of the ABC describe as financial cutbacks.

So great was the interest that some avid readers have come up with more examples. First up, let’s hear from Wendy Harmer who co-presents Breakfast on ABC Radio 702 in Sydney:

Wendy Harmer @wendy_harmer

So all set to broadcast from home tomorrow morning

@abcsydney

– fingers crossed all goes well! On a sidenote, I’m using a Tieline Via unit that costs $5,500 and we only have ONE for the entire station! Clearly not enough in times like these. More funding for the ABC please!

3:18 PM · Mar 23, 2020

So there you have it. Ms Harmer is broadcasting from home in her PJs in view of COVID-19 and all that. And she reckons that the ABC cannot buy, say, half a dozen Tieline Via units on an annual budget of over $1 billion to give to other PJ-clad ABC types. In short, Ms Harmer reckons that in these pandemic times – “More funding for the ABC please!”.

And then on 2 April 2020, Virginia Trioli, who presents Mornings on ABC Radio 774 in Melbourne, interviewed her boss, ABC managing director David Anderson. After a discussion about providing educational content for kids and school students due to the COVID-19 initiated school closures, La Trioli switched the topic to yes, you’ve guessed it, ABC funding.

The ABC Mornings presenter asked four questions directed at whether the ABC will get additional funding due to its reporting of COVID-19. Which is after all, its job — namely to report the news, including pandemics. But, as the saying goes, never let a pandemic go to waste!

AN ABC UPDATE

ALL QUIET ON THE JUDICIAL FRONT: MEDIA WATCH AND INSIDERS SILENT ON THE HIGH COURT’S DECISION IN PELL v THE QUEEN

Last week was one of the newsiest, especially from a media point of view, in Australian history. And yet the ABC Media Watch program, presented by Paul Barry had what journalists like to call a Well Earned Break.

If Media Watch went to air on Friday (i.e. Good Friday and Passover) this would have been understandable. But Media Watch goes to air on Mondays, and Monday April 13 was a normal news day on Sky News and the commercial television channels. But not in all parts of the taxpayer funded public broadcaster.

This meant that Paul Barry had no opportunity to cover how the ABC got the outcome of the High Court decision in Pell v The Queen so hopelessly wrong. [Are you sure he would have done this? MWD Editor.] The ABC star reporter on the matter Louise Milligan predicted earlier in the year that Cardinal Pell had no “appeal point”. Not only did he have an appeal point, but the High Court, in a unanimous verdict, quashed the conviction. Perhaps Mr Barry will do a self-criticism of the ABC coverage — and in some cases, lack of coverage — of Pell v The Queen on Monday. But don’t hold your breath.

And then there was ABC TV Insiders, which in an unusual move did do an Easter Sunday program this year.

Now, in previous times, Cardinal George Pell has been the topic of discussion on the Insiders agenda, despite the fact that the allegations against him of historical child sexual abuse were not particularly relevant to Australian national politics or Australian foreign policy.

Last week there was a genuine reason to discuss the Pell case. Not only had the High Court overturned a majority decision of the Victorian Court of Appeal and criticised the Victorian Director of Public Prosecutions. But Victoria’s Labor Premier David Andrews had issued a statement which implied that he did not agree with the High Court’s decision. Big news indeed — in addition to the fact that Pell v The Queen was the most-high profile criminal law judgment in Australia since the Lindy Chamberlain case of over three decades ago.

However, there was not a word about the Pell case on Insiders last Sunday. It was not that Insiders buried the news in this instance — it just avoided it altogether. The quashing of Pell’s conviction was an inconvenient truth, it would seem. It may be that Insiders will discuss Pell v The Queen next Sunday. If so, the “news” will be 12 days old.

YOU MUST REMEMBER THIS

“You Must Remember This” is based on the chorus line in the song As Time Goes By which was popularised by the film Casablanca. It is devoted to reminding the usual suspects of what they and/or those they supported once wrote or said or did. On this occasion MWD looks back on some alarmist predictions concerning COVID-19 made by ABC presenters in March 2020.

● DR NORMAN SWAN’S FAILED COVID-19 PREDICTIONS

Avid readers will remember Dr Norman Swan’s 21 March tweet concerning the growth of COVID-19 cases in Australia and what Dr Swan condescendingly called “Primary School Maths” (MWD 491):

1700 on Monday, 3400 on Wednesday or Thursday, 7-8000 by next weekend. True number by then 70-80,000 possibly. Primary school maths. Someone should go figure. No magic fairy will bring that down. 14-20 days behind Italy. Believe in maths not magic. https://t.co/wDysEg13CW

— Norman Swan (@normanswan) March 21, 2020

Dr Swan’s claim on March 21 that Australia was 14-20 days behind Italy and on track for 7000-8000 cases by the weekend of March 28-29 now looks farcical. On March 26, Australia reported a total of 3,985 cases. As of April 16, the total cases stood at 6,468. Still short of Dr Swan’s prediction for 18 days earlier. Put another way, Dr Swan believed we were going to see Australian cases rise from around 1,000 at the time of his tweet to over 7,000 in only eight days. We are currently 26 days from his prediction and based on recent numbers we may not reach 7,000 cases for some time.

There is also Dr Swan’s claim that Australia would have a true number of possibly 70,000 to 80,000 cases by March 29. While it is true that some number of cases have likely gone undetected, this prediction of tens of thousands of undetected cases around the country has obviously failed to materialise. As of April 16, the Department of Health reported 66 patients currently in Intensive Care Units (ICU) around Australia, hardly the number you would see if the virus was running rampant, undetected, around the country.

This is not just a failure of prediction on Dr Swan’s part but represents a failure to understand the extent of the spread of the virus at the time the prediction was made. Dr Swan’s tweet only makes sense if you believed on March 21 that there was already widespread transmission of the virus in Australia. It is now clear that this was not the case.

In recent days Dr Swan has begun advocating for Australia to follow New Zealand’s lead and push for total eradication of the virus locally. This brings to mind another tweet of Dr Swan’s from 27 March: This despite the fact that Australia appears to be doing somewhat better than New Zealand in mitigating the virus.

Eradication won’t happen. The goal is to get to such small numbers so that with an extended testing regimen along with strict isolation and quarantine we’d control this virus rather than it controlling us. https://t.co/ifAFkEGHPx

— Norman Swan (@normanswan) March 26, 2020

So another dire prediction by Dr Swan that he has had to abandon when faced with the evidence. Readers may wonder if Dr Swan has offered up a mea culpa for his earlier statements. Here is an exchange from his appearance on News Breakfast on 16 April:

Lisa Millar: What does the death toll, it’s been relatively low in Australia compared

to other countries, what does it tell us about how Australia’s been handling it?

Norman Swan: Look we are a success story, it’s fantastic news, I said right at the beginning I’d love to be proved wrong and the, uh, w-we have got, um, everything going in the right direction.

Well I guess that, um, sorta, uh, counts.

● FRAN KELLY ON ICU BEDS BEING FULL BY MID-APRIL

On the topic of COVID doomsaying of ABC presenters, does anybody remember this exchange between RN Breakfast’s Fran Kelly and Minister for Health Greg Hunt from March 25:

Fran Kelly: I know on current projections hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid-April. We need more ventilators.

Greg Hunt: Whose predictions are those?

Fran Kelly: There’s many projections that suggest that our ICU beds will be overwhelmed and that’s why hospitals –

Greg Hunt: Can you name one for me?

Fran Kelly: I’ve read many, I don’t have it in front of me. Hospitals are now preparing to double the number of ICU beds we have in this country.

Later in the program Ms Kelly offered the following clarification:

Fran Kelly: One thing the Minister did pick me up on was when I said there were predictions and projections of the ICU beds being overwhelmed by April. He asked me which study that was, I didn’t have it on hand. Just to let you know, that was a study from statisticians at James Cook University, said that from mid-April this could be the case — ICU beds being overwhelmed by April …

The study, written on 18 March by Megan Higgie and Andrew Kahn, projected a “worst case scenario” where Australia’s ICU capacity, estimated at 2,229 beds, could be overwhelmed by 7-9 April. This was based on an uninterrupted, exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, with Australia’s ICU capacity being overwhelmed when the national case total reached 44,580. The authors offered plenty of caveats about their methods and the variables they had not accounted for. However, none of these made it on to Radio National Breakfast. Instead we had Ms Kelly confidently stating that “on current projections hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid-April”. As mentioned earlier, on April 16 Australia had 6,468 reported cases and 66 patients in ICU.

No word yet on whether Ms Kelly, like her colleague Dr Swan, loves to be proved wrong.

* * * * *

Until next time.