Will Karl Stefanovic’s cut-price Today rescue bid work?
Nine is betting on Karl Stefanovic’s Today return to revive ratings but it will be an uphill battle.
What a difference a year makes.
Just 12 months ago Karl Stefanovic was the man who could do nothing right by Nine Entertainment, ending up on the wrong end of the headlines so consistently he was sacked from the Today breakfast show despite being the network’s most recognisable talent.
A year on, Nine is desperately betting on Karl Stefanovic’s Today return to bring back ratings and advertising dollars to a show that has been sitting in the doldrums since the introduction of the all-female hosting team of Georgie Gardner and Deb Knight.
Gardner has hosted her last show while Knight will stay on at Nine in her news anchoring role.
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Personalities aside, in the brutal world of morning TV this is a starkly commercial proposition for Nine’s Hugh Marks. The Nine boss is willing to suffer the indignity of admitting the network was wrong to sack “King Karl” if he and new co-host Allison Langdon can bring back the advertising dollars to a show — and a format — that’s struggling. As one rival broadcast CEO told The Australian: “It’s the only option — eat some humble pie and move on.”
As revealed by Media Diary, the proposition is for Stefanovic to return to Today on the proviso of removing hundreds of thousands from his $2m-a-year contract, turning him from “King Karl” to “Cut-Price Karl” in the halls of Nine (see Diary).
The revelation has hastened the departure of Gardner and rushed a formal announcement on the new hosting line-up in Nine’s Saturday newspapers.
Advertisers, media buyers and even rival television executives spoken to by The Australian gave the resurrection of Stefanovic and ex-60 Minutes reporter Langdon the cautious thumbs-up, but doubted the pair could wrestle the top spot from Sunrise, a feat only achieved once in Stefanovic’s 14 years.
Despite last year’s takeover of Fairfax turning Nine into one of the nation’s largest newspaper and website publishers along with its real estate asset Domain, it is still primarily reliant on a successful free-to-air television market that is in a bad way.
This year Nine’s broadcast business booked an 11 per cent fall in full-year earnings on the back of a 5 per cent drop in revenue. Nine reported a 6 per cent drop in revenue to $1.09bn, with the free-to-air TV market down 5.2 per cent in the second half of the year.
Ratings figures from television measurement provider OzTAM show the devastating decline for Today in a post-Karl world.
Nine’s Today program ratings for the year so far show a fall in average audience of almost 20 per cent, compared with the same time last year. As of last week, Today’s average national audience is 292,000 for the year, and 197,000 in metropolitan cities.
The figures were shocking for Nine, given the attempt to overhaul the line-up earlier this year.
Those figures compare with 358,000 nationally, and 239,000 across the five metropolitan cities for Today, when Stefanovic and Gardner were co-hosting the program.
And when Stefanovic was co-hosting with Lisa Wilkinson, the show was averaging 432,000 nationally, and 278,000 in metropolitan cities.
Ben Willee, general manager and media director of ad agency Spinach said Nine overreacted last year when it decided to oust the host and a return was likely to get ratings back on track.
“A big part of that groundswell is they want to go back to people they’ve known, who’ve been in the chair for many years, so I’m not surprised in the slightest.
“I think Australians have proven time and time again, we are very forgiving when it comes to perceived celebrity misdemeanours. I would say some of the negativity that went on last year, I would suspect a significant portion of that has dissipated and I would also suspect that Nine has done some research to prove that as well.”
Willee was of the view that while it would help in ratings and some revenue, there were no guarantees for Nine, with other factors like the time of the year, ad inventory availability, rival programs and major events such as the Olympics playing a part.
“There is absolutely no doubt it will improve ratings and anything that improves ratings will improve revenue and advertising dollars.
“The money flows according to a whole bunch of variables, and ratings are just one of those variables. All of these variables can impact whether you do or don’t buy (ad) spots in that program.”
Peter Bosilkovski, chief executive of ad agency Clemenger BBDO Sydney compared Karl’s comeback to that of Matty Johns and pointed out that long-term programs can die if not given the right line-up.
“Australians have a history of forgiving and welcoming back well-known personalities who have had a few bumps in the road. No better example than footballer Matty Johns.
“I think the prospect of Karl Stefanovic returning to the Today show would be a genius move by Nine. We witnessed the demise of the NRL Footy Show when Fatty Vautin left — now you can only ponder what would have happened if he returned.
“Karl is a charismatic, big personality that Australians love. In an evolved format of the Today show, he would definitely intrigue a lot of viewers that left for the Sunrise show.
“Nine would definitely get a spike in interest, but whether it would continue to boost ratings will be dependent on the new partnership and the new format.”
As tempting as it is to view Stefanovic as the morning messiah to save Today, it’s important to remember the show beat Sunrise only once in Karl’s 14 years as host, combined with concerns in the industry about a more structural decline in the importance of morning television as a genre.
Victor Corones, managing director of IPG Mediabrands’ investment arm Magna, said the formats were “tired” and needed rethinking.
“I see the real opportunity for them is to develop smarter content strategies that leverage all of their assets together and not just keep focusing on the linear service as their key driver,” Mr Corones said.
Frank Carlino, head of investment for NSW and Victoria at Vizeum, who was previously involved in buying and selling day and breakfast TV timeslots, said there was less emphasis on scrutinising breakfast from a trade point of view.
“There’s less emphasis on having to scrutinise the daytime and breakfast from a trade point of view, as much as it used to be in the past,” Mr Carlino says.
Additional reporting: Zoe Samios
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