Victoria hot seats results as it happened: Early mornings, attack ads, bunny ears and fake tradies: The seemingly never-ending battle for Goldstein

It was still dark at 7am, one week into the official election campaign when I joined Tim Wilson and Zoe Daniel leafleting at train stations on the Frankston line, just two stops away from each other.

That was seven weeks ago, and only yesterday did we finally get what is almost a resolution in Goldstein.

I split my time between both candidates, catching the train between the stops, watching them try to engage with the early-morning commuters, smiling while pressing flyers into their hands, fielding questions and patting dogs.

Liberal Tim Wilson and independent Zoe Daniel on the campaign trail.Credit: Cara Waters

Both were relentlessly upbeat, but Wilson had an extra edge of desperation and determination about him.

He had lost everything in the last election, and nothing could embarrass him.

Wilson gamely flagged down every commuter and didn’t flinch when voters said no to his pamphlets.

What difference did his doggedness make?

When the lead in the tally flipped from Daniel to Wilson, and then almost back again to Daniel again, it must have counted for something.

Tim Wilson and his supporters at this campaign launch in Brighton. Credit: Wayne Taylor

Wilson believes Goldstein’s voters admired him for not giving up, and this is what enabled him to claim victory as the ultimate comeback kid. He has spoken of sleepless nights and using his credit card to help finance his campaign.

In 2022, the teals caught him by surprise, but this time around he was prepared, spending two years building a “blue army” of Liberal supporters.

The first glimpse I caught of this army was at Wilson’s campaign launch in the Brighton Town Hall, packed with 600 supporters all wearing blue Tim Wilson T-shirts handed out at the door.

From that day, Wilson set up the campaign as highly personal, comparing Daniel at his launch to “the person in your group assignment who hasn’t done the work but still takes the credit”.

He said Daniel had failed to turn up for the community, describing an empty chair at citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day and on Anzac Day.

Supporters cheer for Zoe Daniel at her campaign launch.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

Wilson spent two years turning up to community events, insinuating himself as the alternative member for Goldstein, and campaigning on local issues like crime and development, even if they were not in the federal remit.

Daniel’s campaign tried to focus on the bigger picture – hosting “politics at the pub” sessions on economic reform and bringing the conversation back to climate change.

She had her own army of teal-clad volunteers and, at her launch at the Kingston Town Hall, more than 1000 turned up, chanting her name like a rock star, “Zoe, Zoe, Zoe”.

However, this was a seat fought on hyper-local issues and politics of personality.

Zoe Daniel and her son, Arkie, head to the polling booth on May 3.Credit: Justin McManus

On election night, Daniel told me the campaign had been “really dirty”.

She was subject to attack ads run by third-party groups, some with links to the Liberal Party, including Australians for Prosperity and Repeal the Teal.

During the campaign she said people screamed at her on the street and she reported harassment and stalking to police after a Facebook post identified her car in a private car park behind her electoral office.

Wilson denied any connection between his campaign and the attack ads or the personal attacks on Daniel.

He declined all invitations to debates and forums during the campaign, apart from a Jewish community forum.

With 7.1 per cent of residents in Goldstein identifying Judaism as their religious affiliation, the candidates’ position on Gaza was galvanising for many voters.

Daniel (left) and Wilson (right) at a Jewish community forum on April 3.Credit: Joe Armao

Daniel and Wilson engaged in a fiery debate at the Brighton Hebrew Congregation, where Daniel told attendees: “I will never use your pain for political gain”, while Wilson declared he was a Zionist.

Emotions flared again after anonymous letters were sent to Daniel’s supporters, who had corflutes displayed outside their homes, accusing them of being antisemitic and hating Jews.

Preying on the division in the electorate, far-right agitators turned up at pre-poll voting in Brighton and at the Hampton Primary School polling booth on election day.

Like many in the Liberal Party, Wilson preferenced One Nation as fourth on his how-to-vote cards and Trumpet of Patriots fifth. Trumpet of Patriots candidate Vicki Williams attended his victory press conference and hugged him afterwards.

Both parties spent big on the campaign, with Daniel, who disclosed donations in real time, raising $1.8 million while Wilson estimated his campaign spent $1 million.

Dog merchanise for Zoe Daniel’s election campaign.

The full cost of Wilson’s campaign and the identity of his donors will not be known for months.

There were also lighthearted moments along the campaign trail: the campaign merch which included bedazzled Zoe Daniel hats and dog bandannas, Wilson donning bunny ears to hand out chocolate Easter eggs at the supermarket and Daniel getting an endorsement from everyone’s favourite TV neighbour, Harold Bishop.

There was the morning I went to four Anzac Day ceremonies as the two candidates competed over who could lay the most wreaths.

Who can forget the “fake tradie” – Liberal Party branch secretary and campaign volunteer Frazer Hurst, who posed as a tradie in a Facebook advertisement for Wilson wearing a fluoro vest and hard hat?

He turned up to Wilson’s election night party at the Sandringham Yacht Club wearing the same outfit.

“I wore this especially for you Cara,” he said with a smile.

On election night, it was down to the wire in Goldstein, with Daniel claiming victory in a celebratory speech at her party at the Elwood Bowls Club.

However, Wilson did not concede the seat. He bided his time waiting for the postal votes to come in. They eventually delivered him the seat despite a late swing to Daniel. He won by 128 votes.

Wilson’s win was a rare bright spot for the Liberal Party in what has been a crushing election defeat across Australia.

Wilson pictured with then opposition leader Peter Dutton on election day. Dutton lost his seat later that night.Credit: James Brickwood

Wilson has been hailed as the “teal slayer”, a saviour, and briefly as a potential leader of the Liberal Party.

Perhaps more prosaically, he is just one of the last men standing, the Steven Bradbury of the Liberal Party, still on his skates while others tumble around him.

Daniel’s next move is unknown. Will she call for a recount? Will this be the end of politics for her?

Whatever she does next, she has put Goldstein back in play. What was once a guaranteed, blue-ribbon Liberal seat is now one of the most marginal in the country.

Correction: An earlier version of this blog post incorrectly reported that Tim Wilson “wrangled a wreath off” one of Zoe Daniel’s supporters at a 2023 Anzac Day ceremony to lay it himself. The wreath, intended for Daniel or her representative to lay, in fact, was handed to Wilson in her absence and when Daniel’s representative appeared, the two jointly laid the wreath.

That’s a wrap for our “hot seats” blog for the 2025 federal election!

Thank you to Rachael Dexter, Clay Lucas, Charlotte Grieve and Cara Waters for their tireless reporting on the ground in Kooyong, Wills, Bruce, and Goldstein.

We weren’t sure what to expect when Anthony Albanese called the election more than eight weeks ago, and we embarked on this project, closely following the battle in four Victorian seats. There has been high drama, humour and serious revelations. Our team saw and covered it all, breaking news along the way.

Thank you to our readers who have followed the many twists and turns. We’ve appreciated your many comments too.

If there is a recount in Goldstein, we’ll bring you the news on theage.com.au

If you have any more feedback on the blog - what worked, what didn’t, please send us a note below.

It was still dark at 7am, one week into the official election campaign when I joined Tim Wilson and Zoe Daniel leafleting at train stations on the Frankston line, just two stops away from each other.

That was seven weeks ago, and only yesterday did we finally get what is almost a resolution in Goldstein.

I split my time between both candidates, catching the train between the stops, watching them try to engage with the early-morning commuters, smiling while pressing flyers into their hands, fielding questions and patting dogs.

Liberal Tim Wilson and independent Zoe Daniel on the campaign trail.Credit: Cara Waters

Both were relentlessly upbeat, but Wilson had an extra edge of desperation and determination about him.

He had lost everything in the last election, and nothing could embarrass him.

Wilson gamely flagged down every commuter and didn’t flinch when voters said no to his pamphlets.

What difference did his doggedness make?

When the lead in the tally flipped from Daniel to Wilson, and then almost back again to Daniel again, it must have counted for something.

Tim Wilson and his supporters at this campaign launch in Brighton. Credit: Wayne Taylor

Wilson believes Goldstein’s voters admired him for not giving up, and this is what enabled him to claim victory as the ultimate comeback kid. He has spoken of sleepless nights and using his credit card to help finance his campaign.

In 2022, the teals caught him by surprise, but this time around he was prepared, spending two years building a “blue army” of Liberal supporters.

The first glimpse I caught of this army was at Wilson’s campaign launch in the Brighton Town Hall, packed with 600 supporters all wearing blue Tim Wilson T-shirts handed out at the door.

From that day, Wilson set up the campaign as highly personal, comparing Daniel at his launch to “the person in your group assignment who hasn’t done the work but still takes the credit”.

He said Daniel had failed to turn up for the community, describing an empty chair at citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day and on Anzac Day.

Supporters cheer for Zoe Daniel at her campaign launch.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

Wilson spent two years turning up to community events, insinuating himself as the alternative member for Goldstein, and campaigning on local issues like crime and development, even if they were not in the federal remit.

Daniel’s campaign tried to focus on the bigger picture – hosting “politics at the pub” sessions on economic reform and bringing the conversation back to climate change.

She had her own army of teal-clad volunteers and, at her launch at the Kingston Town Hall, more than 1000 turned up, chanting her name like a rock star, “Zoe, Zoe, Zoe”.

However, this was a seat fought on hyper-local issues and politics of personality.

Zoe Daniel and her son, Arkie, head to the polling booth on May 3.Credit: Justin McManus

On election night, Daniel told me the campaign had been “really dirty”.

She was subject to attack ads run by third-party groups, some with links to the Liberal Party, including Australians for Prosperity and Repeal the Teal.

During the campaign she said people screamed at her on the street and she reported harassment and stalking to police after a Facebook post identified her car in a private car park behind her electoral office.

Wilson denied any connection between his campaign and the attack ads or the personal attacks on Daniel.

He declined all invitations to debates and forums during the campaign, apart from a Jewish community forum.

With 7.1 per cent of residents in Goldstein identifying Judaism as their religious affiliation, the candidates’ position on Gaza was galvanising for many voters.

Daniel (left) and Wilson (right) at a Jewish community forum on April 3.Credit: Joe Armao

Daniel and Wilson engaged in a fiery debate at the Brighton Hebrew Congregation, where Daniel told attendees: “I will never use your pain for political gain”, while Wilson declared he was a Zionist.

Emotions flared again after anonymous letters were sent to Daniel’s supporters, who had corflutes displayed outside their homes, accusing them of being antisemitic and hating Jews.

Preying on the division in the electorate, far-right agitators turned up at pre-poll voting in Brighton and at the Hampton Primary School polling booth on election day.

Like many in the Liberal Party, Wilson preferenced One Nation as fourth on his how-to-vote cards and Trumpet of Patriots fifth. Trumpet of Patriots candidate Vicki Williams attended his victory press conference and hugged him afterwards.

Both parties spent big on the campaign, with Daniel, who disclosed donations in real time, raising $1.8 million while Wilson estimated his campaign spent $1 million.

Dog merchanise for Zoe Daniel’s election campaign.

The full cost of Wilson’s campaign and the identity of his donors will not be known for months.

There were also lighthearted moments along the campaign trail: the campaign merch which included bedazzled Zoe Daniel hats and dog bandannas, Wilson donning bunny ears to hand out chocolate Easter eggs at the supermarket and Daniel getting an endorsement from everyone’s favourite TV neighbour, Harold Bishop.

There was the morning I went to four Anzac Day ceremonies as the two candidates competed over who could lay the most wreaths.

Who can forget the “fake tradie” – Liberal Party branch secretary and campaign volunteer Frazer Hurst, who posed as a tradie in a Facebook advertisement for Wilson wearing a fluoro vest and hard hat?

He turned up to Wilson’s election night party at the Sandringham Yacht Club wearing the same outfit.

“I wore this especially for you Cara,” he said with a smile.

On election night, it was down to the wire in Goldstein, with Daniel claiming victory in a celebratory speech at her party at the Elwood Bowls Club.

However, Wilson did not concede the seat. He bided his time waiting for the postal votes to come in. They eventually delivered him the seat despite a late swing to Daniel. He won by 128 votes.

Wilson’s win was a rare bright spot for the Liberal Party in what has been a crushing election defeat across Australia.

Wilson pictured with then opposition leader Peter Dutton on election day. Dutton lost his seat later that night.Credit: James Brickwood

Wilson has been hailed as the “teal slayer”, a saviour, and briefly as a potential leader of the Liberal Party.

Perhaps more prosaically, he is just one of the last men standing, the Steven Bradbury of the Liberal Party, still on his skates while others tumble around him.

Daniel’s next move is unknown. Will she call for a recount? Will this be the end of politics for her?

Whatever she does next, she has put Goldstein back in play. What was once a guaranteed, blue-ribbon Liberal seat is now one of the most marginal in the country.

Correction: An earlier version of this blog post incorrectly reported that Tim Wilson “wrangled a wreath off” one of Zoe Daniel’s supporters at a 2023 Anzac Day ceremony to lay it himself. The wreath, intended for Daniel or her representative to lay, in fact, was handed to Wilson in her absence and when Daniel’s representative appeared, the two jointly laid the wreath.

Zoe Daniel is not yet conceding Goldstein, even though Tim Wilson won the final count for the seat by a margin of 128 votes.

On the two-candidate preferred count, the Liberal had 58,047 votes compared to the teal independent’s 57,919, with Wilson achieving a 1.68 per cent swing.

Zoe Daniel was looking confident on election night, only for the count to take weeks to yield a result.Credit: Penny Stephens

Daniel said counting of first-preference votes, and the indicative two-candidate preferred count, was complete.

“The next step is the full distribution of preferences,” Daniel said. “We’ve come this far, and it seems prudent to allow the AEC [Australian Electoral Commission] to get on with finishing the job. Any consideration of a recount will occur after that.”

An automatic recount is triggered if the margin is less than 100 votes, but a candidate can request a recount if the margin is more than 100 votes, and if they have grounds.

On Tuesday afternoon, Wilson claimed victory for a second time, with what he initially thought was a margin of 124 votes but which the AEC later confirmed was 128 votes.

“I feel an incredible sense of gratitude and appreciation to the Goldstein community for giving this great honour to represent them and appreciation to the wonderful volunteers who have done an amazing job ensuring we have defied political history in the milestones we’ve marked and political gravity in the context of the broader election result,” he said.

“I want to thank both our and the teal scrutineers for ensuring the vote counting process had integrity and wish Zoe Daniel her family and staff all the best in their next chapter.”

Liberal Tim Wilson has won Goldstein by 128 votes over independent teal Zoe Daniel.

Wilson claimed victory in the seat almost two weeks ago, but Daniel did not concede and since then the margin between the two gradually narrowed.

Tim Wilson claimed victory in Goldstein a fortnight ago, before counting narrowed. Now the AEC has declared him the victor.Credit: Paul Jeffers

At the final count on Tuesday, Wilson led by 176 votes with 117 votes to be counted but in the final count Daniel failed to close the margin sufficiently.

Wilson sent a message to his supporters congratulating them on breaking what he said were three Australian political records with the 128-vote margin.

“First team to retake the same seat lost to an independent MP – ever!” he said.

“First team to defeat a teal independent MP – ever!

“First Liberal team in 110+ years to win a seat off an independent MP elected at general election (and it has only been done once before – 1913 in Gippsland).

“Unprecedented. Historic. You’re all amazing. Congratulations!”

If the margin was less than 100 votes, then there would be an automatic recount. However, Daniel has fallen just short.

Evan Ekin-Smyth from the Australian Electoral Commission confirmed that Wilson had won the count.

He said a full distribution of preferences will now occur that will probably confirm the margin.

“If the margin is still outside of 100 at that point, then [there will be] no auto-recount, and there’d need to be very good grounds to grant one,” Ekin-Smyth said.

Goldstein is going down to the wire with Zoe Daniel closing in on Tim Wilson’s lead.

However, while it seems increasingly unlikely that the teal incumbent will overtake Wilson completely, the narrowing margin raises the question of a recount.

As at 4.30pm on Friday, Wilson had a 206 vote lead over Daniel with 256 votes waiting to be counted. The cut-off for further postal votes to arrive is midnight tonight.

If the margin gets as close as 100 votes, there is an automatic recount. It does not look like Daniel will get there, however, there is still the option for Daniel to request a recount.

Wilson this week warned supporters in his WhatsApp group – named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami” – that Daniel was likely to ask for a recount.

“If a full recount occurs we will need a massive scrutineering team because every vote will need to be scrutinised and it will be a race to see who can knock out the most votes. Let’s hope that does not happen.”

Zoe Daniel is 206 votes behind Liberal candidate Tim Wilson.Credit: Simon Schluter

I checked in with Evan Ekin-Smyth from the Australian Electoral Commission who said it is very rare for recount requests to be granted.

“There have to be actual grounds to a recount request – it can’t just be because it’s reasonably close,” he says.

“This is particularly the case because the standard counting process already looks at the ballot papers three times in the presence of scrutineers.”

As to when Daniel could request a recount, Ekin-Smyth said this would not be until mid next week after the full distribution of the preferences.

“The full distribution of preferences is effectively the third count,” he said. “This happens next week, so the standard and legislated counting process continues in these seats before a recount request would be considered.”

Updated: This post was updated with the latest numbers and additional analysis at 2.30pm.

For those hanging on the result in Goldstein to see whether Zoe Daniel can claw back Tim Wilson’s lead, the final counting is underway today with midnight tonight the cut-off for postal votes.

The Liberal candidate has a 258 vote margin over the teal incumbent with 470 votes waiting to be processed at 11.30am, but more could land today with the last batch of postal votes coming in.

Evan Ekin-Smyth, spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission, said on the last day for the receipt of postal votes the numbers are always small and there could be about 100 postal votes that arrive today.

“Overseas voting occurs from a range of countries with both postal vote drop-offs to high commissions and votes cast in-person coming from locations like Nairobi late in the election period,” he said.

A late flight is scheduled to land from Nairobi tonight with a batch of votes.

I asked Ekin-Smyth about the votes that remain to be counted today and how the AEC is going to handle them.

He said the final absent count will happen first and then postal votes with the view to being completely through all outstanding votes by late in the day, but that depends on overseas deliveries. Then next week there will be a full distribution of preferences which is essentially a third count of the votes which is expected to take two to three days.

I also checked in on the number of votes which have been declared informal in Goldstein given Wilson’s claims that votes were being “knocked out” as informal.

There have been 2957 votes declared informal in Goldstein, or around 2.5 per cent, which Ekin-Smyth said is “pretty low” compared to the national average of around 5.5 per cent.

He attributes this to the demographics of the area as there were only eight candidates in Goldstein which makes it easier for people to number all boxes, an electorate like Riverina had 13 candidates and so tends to have a higher informal voting rate.

Additionally, electorates with lower English proficiency also tend to have higher informal voting rates as well.

I checked in with two election analysts to see whether they think Daniel can claw back Wilson’s lead.

Tally room analyst Ben Raue said Daniel needed about 74 per cent of the remaining votes to go in her favour which was not likely to happen.

“It’s like the end of a T20 cricket match, where the required run rate keeps getting higher and higher,” he said.

“So even though you’re scoring faster and faster, you’re not quite getting there fast enough, because you’re running out of runway. She just needs a very high proportion and yes she’s getting quite a lot of them but I don’t think she can win.”

Raue said Daniel’s only real hope was a recount.

“Maybe she can get [the margin] to under 100 votes because then there is a recount,” he said.

Psephologist and polling analyst Kevin Bonham also said it was “not realistic” for Daniel to win the seat with the small number of votes remaining to be counted.

“There’s not enough votes left to bridge that gap even with simply getting quite remarkable rates of votes in the postal count,” he said.

At this stage, both candidates are sitting and waiting, but Wilson took to social media this morning to post a “How it started” and “How it’s going” post featuring screenshots of The Age’s coverage of his campaign launch and of the tight continuing vote count.

“No matter what happens today: I always said this would be my last campaign or my greatest,” he posted. “I’m immensely proud that we called a community and a country to a higher purpose.”

Daniel posted a montage of scenes from the election campaign to social media last night.

“You get what you give, and we’re giving it every, single, thing,” she wrote. “No matter what, we are changing the world.”

Tim Wilson’s lead over incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel in Goldstein has now narrowed to less than 300 votes.

At 6pm on Thursday, Wilson led by 292 votes with 738 votes waiting to be counted. More votes will be added if they arrive by post by Friday.

Wilson told The Age on Thursday afternoon that 500 votes had just been counted and he had only lost 11 of those votes.

He said a win by Daniel was “not impossible but extremely improbable”.

The Liberal candidate has been mobilising volunteers via text message and his WhatsApp group chat – named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami” – to help scrutineer as the margin has narrowed.

Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson told supporters “we are calm”.

“We never wanted a drop in margin like this, but we were prepared for it,” he wrote in the WhatsApp group.

Wilson says in the chat that he always wanted a buffer of 1000 votes to ensure he was “insulated” against a drop like this.

His mum, Linda Morris, who appeared alongside him at pre-poll booths, has been scrutineering for Wilson alongside a larger team.

Tim Wilson’s mum, Linda Morris, has been scrutineering for him.Credit: Cara Waters

Goldstein is not the only seat where the close battle between a teal and Liberals remains.

In the Sydney electorate of Bradfield, Liberal contender Gisele Kapterian clings to a 43-vote lead over her teal rival, Nicolette Boele, with about 303 votes still to be counted at 6pm Thursday.

On current trends a recount seems likely in Bradfield and possible in Goldstein.

Tim Wilson is scrambling for more scrutineer volunteers to “knock out” his opponent’s informal votes in Goldstein as the margin between the Liberal candidate and teal incumbent Zoe Daniel continues to narrow.

A text message from Wilson to his supporters on Wednesday says it is an “EXTREME necessity” for scrutineers to be available.

“The sole purpose of scrutineering is to knock out our opponent’s vote. That is what they are doing to us with EXTREME position [sic].”

(Wilson later clarified to The Age that the text message should have read “EXTREME precision”.)

His lead in Goldstein when he sent the text was 528 votes. It has since narrowed to 302 votes at 12.45pm Thursday, with 935 votes remaining to be counted. More votes will be added if they arrive by post by Friday.

Wilson’s text message urging more volunteer support comes as he mobilises supporters via his WhatsApp group chat, named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami”.

In those messages, he writes that more Liberal scrutineers are needed to “knock out informal votes that are being counted for the Teals”. Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson insisted to supporters, “we are calm”.

The Age has also obtained Daniel’s scrutineering guide, which Wilson said is a “leaked how-to guide” on knocking out votes intended for him.

The guide for scrutineers states: “We only challenge Tim Wilson’s vote”. It also notes that Wilson’s volunteers will challenge Daniel’s votes, so there is no need for her scrutineers to do that.

Evan Ekin-Smyth, spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission, said while scrutineers could flag votes, the final decision was with the AEC.

“It’s always up to the AEC to say whether something is formal or not and it always goes to the Electoral Act,” he said. “It doesn’t really matter what scrutineers do.”

He said Wilson’s references to “knocking out” votes “look a bit loose”.

“You can’t just say you’re knocking out votes,” he said. “You can say you’re challenging votes as to whether they’re formal or not.”

“Scrutineers are a part of the process. Challenging votes for whether they’re formal or informal is an important part of that process, but we’re confident in how we’re doing it.

“So in terms of the communication that they’re putting out there, we’d like people to be very clear that what they’re talking about is scrutineer challenges, but the decisions are always made in accordance with the Act.”

Ekin-Smyth said three “relatively small” counts are expected in Goldstein today, including around 170 absent votes, 260 provisional votes and a small number of declaration pre-polls.

“All small quantities,” he said. “The needle will shift off the back of them, but not sure how much”.

Daniel told The Age on Thursday the AEC process should be respected.

“As always, I thank my volunteers for their participation in an open and honest democratic process,” she said.

The Liberal Party’s Zoe McKenzie has won the seat of Flinders in Melbourne’s south-east.

The result was delayed due to uncertainty over the preference count.

But the AEC’s Tally Room website now shows McKenzie leads independent candidate Ben Smith by more than 6000 votes with about 85 per cent of the two-candidate preferred count completed.

Liberal MP for Flinders Zoe McKenzie has held the seat, seeing off a challenge from independent candidate Ben Smith.

McKenzie was first elected to the seat of Flinders in 2022.

Confirmation of her re-election brings the Coalition’s tally in the House of Representatives to 43. Labor has won 93 seats, while smaller parties and independents will hold 12 seats.

Read more here.

Tim Wilson’s supporters are being mobilised to help as scrutineers as the Liberal candidate’s lead over incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel narrows further to 368 votes.

Screenshots from Wilson’s WhatsApp group chat – named “Goldstein Blue Tsunami” – leaked to The Age show Wilson claiming that informal votes are being counted for Daniel.

He writes that more Liberal scrutineers are needed to “knock out informal votes that are being counted for the Teals” – something Wilson says he is “extremely good” at but legally prohibited from doing as a candidate in this election. He also warns supporters to prepare for a recount.

Daniel claimed victory in Goldstein on election night with a margin of 1800 votes, but postal votes came in strongly in Wilson’s favour, and he overtook her in the count. He claimed victory on May 7 in a triumphant press conference surrounded by supporters.

However, since then, the margin – which once had Wilson ahead by as much as 1200 votes – has been slowly eroded.

On Wednesday night, only 401 votes separated the candidates. Wilson’s lead narrowed on Thursday morning to 368 votes.

There are 1225 votes still to be counted, plus any more postal votes that arrive (they must be received by Friday).

In the WhatsApp chat, Wilson also warns that “bad batches of votes come in” and that votes cast in Melbourne’s CBD are particularly unfavourable to the Liberals because they include many students.

Despite the narrowing margin, Wilson insists “we are calm”.

“We never wanted a drop in margin like this, but we were prepared for it.”

Wilson says he always wanted a buffer of 1000 votes to ensure he was “insulated” against a drop like this.

Tim Wilson claimed victory in the seat last week.Credit: Paul Jeffers

He warns that Daniel is likely to ask for a recount.

“If a full recount occurs we will need a massive scrutineering team because every vote will need to be scrutinised and it will be a race to see who can knock out the most votes. Let’s hope that does not happen.”

An automatic recount is triggered if the margin is as low as 100 votes, but either candidate can request a recount.

When asked to comment on the WhatsApp group and his claims about informal votes being counted for Daniel, Wilson said: “Around Goldstein, teal campaigners have been boasting that they’ve been good at knocking out informal votes that may have otherwise been counted for me.”

The full text of Wilson’s message to the Goldstein Blue Tsunami group:

There is no point projecting where the vote lands, if the Teals keep knocking out votes and we are not doing the same. The votes will be the votes. The difference is whether we have scrutineers to knock out informal votes that are being counted for the teals. Sadly, this is something I am extremely good at doing but I am legally prohibited from doing on this vote because I am a candidate. If you can help scrutineer, please contact Ben.

Bad batches of votes come in. For instance absentee votes cast in Melbourne CBD tend to be unfavourable because it is weighted towards students.

This scenario is why I always said we needed a buffer of about 1000 votes despite media outlets calling the result. It was explicitly to ensure we were insulated against a drop of this nature.

I cannot say this is the end of the drop but it is likely to be the biggest.

The Age has a good breakdown of the types of votes that remain to be counted.

We are calm. We never wanted a drop in the margin like this, but we were prepared for it. Postal votes can come in until Friday.

An automatic recount is trigged [sic] under 100 votes. And it is likely the current MP will call for a recount, though it may not be agreed by the AEC.

A further WhatsApp message from Wilson to the group:

Our margin is now down to 401 votes.

There are now 1380 votes left to count.

In the last count of 400 votes we lost another 107 votes.

The only thing that matters is scrutineering to knock out informal votes being counted for the Teals. They are knocking out votes for us with extreme precision.

If a full recount occurs we will need a massive scrutineering team because every vote will need to be scrutinised and it will be a race to see who can knock out the most votes. Let’s hope that does not happen.