Independents cement their place in Victorian politics even with seats in the balance

Independent candidates have cemented their place as a force in Victorian politics, with teal Monique Ryan almost certainly retaining her seat in Kooyong and the major parties fighting numerous challenges elsewhere.

Among the closest contests is Zoe Daniel’s battle to retain Goldstein after Liberal Party challenger Tim Wilson rode a surge in support from the postal vote count on Sunday to narrow his deficit to just 97 votes.

Monique Ryan and supporters at her campaign headquarters on Sunday.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

Independents are also taking Liberal and Labor candidates down to the wire in Flinders and Calwell respectively, while Alex Dyson failed to win Wannon from Liberal MP Dan Tehan.

As of 5pm on Sunday, Ryan was ahead of Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer with 51.7 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote in the once-blue ribbon seat.

“We’re still waiting for some data to come in … but it seems pretty clear that despite the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, this band of brothers has overcome the Brethren,” she said at her election night party at the Auburn hotel – a dark-humoured reference to reports of Exclusive Brethren volunteers campaigning for the Liberal Party in marginal seats, including Kooyong.

Ryan told supporters on Sunday they had changed Australian democracy.

“There are still many seats in the mix, and we don’t yet know what the final shape of the parliament will be,” Ryan said. “What we do know – what you’ve all helped make clear – is that we don’t want politics as it used to be. We want people-powered politics. We want it done differently.”

The result is still too close to call in Goldstein, with Daniel conceding a result was days away despite giving a victory speech at her election party at the Elwood Bowls Club on Saturday night.

“We did it!” she told hundreds of cheering volunteers clad in teal T-shirts.

Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has not conceded and thinks he will win.

“I’m battle weary, I’m tired, but I’m elated it’s over,” Wilson said in a video posted to social media. “Postal votes are the largest booth in Goldstein, about 27,000 went out, and they usually go 60/40 in our favour. We remain incredibly optimistic, but we are not seeking to comment on the result until we see the final result.”

Daniel led by 97 votes as of Sunday at 5pm, with 79.2 per cent of the vote counted.

On Sunday night, she said that people who thought the teal movement was a flash in the pan last election, or just a reaction to Scott Morrison, “haven’t been watching closely enough”.

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes à Court declared the growing vote for “community independents” showed the public loved them.

Simon Holmes à Court votes in Hawthorn on Saturday.Credit: Rachael Dexter

“The election was an absolute ringing endorsement for the community independent,” Holmes à Court told ABC radio on Sunday.

“A million people voted for them. The thing that we are most excited by is the validation; everyone who is paying attention can see the community independents movement is here to stay. Australians love independents.”

He said the Liberal Party had not learnt its lesson after the community independent movement started with Cathy McGowan in northern Victoria.

“What’s fascinating is the Liberal Party are focusing on dirty tactics, on front groups – the thing is they don’t understand this movement,” he said.

“It’s absolutely stunning. The Coalition has halved its number of seats since 2013 … they campaign to an Australia that doesn’t exist any more.”

Daniel said that despite Labor’s sweeping wins, both major parties needed to be “hyper-aware” of the dissatisfaction with their performance.

“From that point of view, within the parliament, they need to listen then to independents,” she said. “Obviously, they [Labor] have a mandate to govern, but their ideas are not the only ideas, their views are not the only views and their position is not the only representative position.”

Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said even though some seats still hung in the balance, the teals had proved they were not just a once-off phenomenon.

”By and large, what we saw last night was that the teals have consolidated their role in national politics,” he said. “The result last night is a continuation of the 2022 result that voters are open and willing to support non-major-party candidates who they believe will advance the local community’s interests.”

Ghazarian said, notwithstanding uncertainty in Goldstein, the teals had consolidated their role.

“These seats are marginal,” he said. “They’re going to be marginal for future elections, so they’re not locked away. They’re entirely gettable by the Liberal Party.

“But it appears that voters in these electorates are not yet comfortable or confident of returning back to the Liberal Party in its current form.”

In Flinders, Liberal Zoe McKenzie led independent Ben Smith with 51.2 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote as of Sunday at 5pm, with 77.2 per cent of the vote counted.

In Calwell, in Melbourne’s west, Labor’s Basem Abdo led Liberal Usman Ghani and independent Carly Moore on first preferences.

Moore is a former local Labor mayor who quit the party to run in this election after the retirement of former MP Maria Vamvakinou.

The race is complicated by the presence of several independent candidates and the Greens.

The AEC abandoned its preference count on Sunday and planned to begin a three-candidate preference count on Monday to find the top two candidates for a normal two-candidate-preferred count.

In Wannon, Liberal Dan Tehan led independent Alex Dyson with 53.5 per cent of the vote as of 5pm Sunday, with 81.3 per cent of the vote counted.

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