Victoria hot seats LIVE results: Ryan’s lead over Hamer in Kooyong doubles overnight; Bandt on track to lose Melbourne seat; Wilson says Goldstein win proves teals ‘not an unstoppable force’

A substantial correction in the count for Kooyong has poured some cold water on Liberal Amelia Hamer’s chances, according to one psephologist.

I left you last night with the update that Hamer had sliced Monique Ryan’s lead down to just 366 votes, but today we start with Ryan ahead by 723 votes again.

So what happened?

While all the votes from pre-polling and election day booths are already counted, the good people from the Australian Electoral Commission are now going through the process of rechecking each of these counts — while also continuing to tally postal votes as they arrive.

Independent MP Monique Ryan’s lead in Kooyong has more than doubled overnight.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

It’s a normal part of the process. As psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham explains: “On Saturday night, when the votes are counted in those big pre-poll booths, it’s a lot of votes to count under time pressure … Every now and then a mistake is made.”

In this case, a substantial 210 votes from the Kew pre-poll centre were originally placed in Hamer’s pile, but on rechecking were correctly identified as votes for Ryan.

“It may well have been that it was like 100 votes in the wrong pile and also other minor changes,” Bonham said. “But that recheck made about a 200-vote difference by itself.”

Hamer also took a hit in the Ashburton pre-poll count, where 100 of her votes were removed after being deemed informal — meaning they weren’t filled out correctly and can’t be counted.

Bonham said these kinds of mix-ups are relatively common with large volumes of ballots: “It’s quite easy for bundles of 50 to just slip into the wrong pile.”

Smaller adjustments have been occurring across other booths too, he added, typically just a handful of votes here and there. These can result from reinterpreting unclear handwriting or reviewing ballots initially ruled informal on election night. This is all happening under the watchful eye of scrutineers from both Hamer’s and Ryan’s camps (see the photo below from Port Melbourne voting centre yesterday, which shows the Kooyong and Menzies divisions being counted — everyone in plain clothes is a scrutineer on behalf of a party or candidate).

Scrutineers (in plain clothes) watching the count for Kooyong and Menzies divisions at the AEC’s Port Melbourne counting centre on Wednesday.

While these kinds of rechecks happen in every seat, they make a big impact in contests as tight as this one. So does this swing the seat back toward Ryan?

“It’s a big blow for Hamer’s chances,” Bonham said. “Unless she gets one [correction] in the opposite direction … it’s going to be really difficult for her to get this back.”

But we’re not done yet. Several booths in Kooyong still haven’t been rechecked, so another twist isn’t out of the question.

Postal votes are also still coming in. Hamer had been steadily gaining from these through the week, but Bonham says that advantage is likely to fade.

“In these counts, postals often start out very strong for the Coalition — sometimes 65–35 [per cent in favour of the Coalition] — but the later ones tend to be less conservative,” he said. “By the time you get to the end, the flow may even start to favour the independent.”

If there’s one thing I’ve learned covering Kooyong, it’s to expect the unexpected!

Zoe Daniel may not have conceded Goldstein yet but Liberal Tim Wilson, who claimed victory yesterday, is looking ahead, fielding questions about the Liberal leadership on morning radio.

Wilson told 3AW that the Liberal party room is still mulling its options for the leadership, after Peter Dutton lost his seat, adding he will back the candidate who can succinctly project a vision for the nation’s future under the Coalition.

Tim Wilson has claimed victory in Goldstein.Credit: Paul Jeffers

Wilson – dubbed the “teal slayer” on social media – declared victory in Goldstein yesterday after a dramatic contest against Daniel, who initially claimed victory on Saturday night before the flow of postal votes shifted the count in Wilson’s favour. Wilson held Goldstein from 2016 to 2022, before losing the seat to the teal candidate.

Wilson said he had spoken to two or three colleagues about the Liberal leadership, and was considering his best course of action before returning to Canberra.

“I haven’t spoken to all of the candidates, and [I’m] weighing up my options, but I don’t think anyone has perfect clarity yet,” Wilson said.

“What I’m looking for is somebody who’s going to project where we’re going to go as a country because that’s the basis that we’re going to persuade voters ... if you can’t do that, I’ll be left scratching my head about any candidate.”

Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor are the frontrunners for the leadership.

Read more here.

Liberal Tim Wilson claimed victory in Goldstein in a press conference on Wednesday surrounded by his supporters, but independent Zoe Daniel has not yet conceded – and counting continues.

The latest tally has Wilson ahead by 1362 votes, which appears to be an unassailable lead with postal votes swinging strongly in his direction.

But I’m hearing that Daniel is reluctant to concede because of concerns it may impact her chance for a recount.

I checked in with Evan Ekin-Smyth, spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission, about the situation in Goldstein and whether a candidate’s concession impacts the count.

Ekin-Smyth says votes are counted three times: there’s the initial count; then a legislated process called “fresh scrutiny”, which is a mandatory second count; then the AEC does a full distribution of preferences – the third count.

“At the end of that process, if the margin is minute, then there’s an automatic trigger for a further count,” Ekin-Smyth says.

That automatic trigger is if the margin is as tight as 100 votes when the counting is concluded. There’s a long way to go in Goldstein – as of Thursday morning, there are still 4690 envelopes to be processed.

Once counting has finished, any candidate can request a recount, but it is very rare for this to happen, with no recounts in the 2022 federal election.

“The only other way that there is a recount is if somebody has really good grounds because we have already counted them three bloody times.”

Ekin-Smyth said any decisions were well down the track.

“If [Daniel] concedes, if Tim Wilson claims victory – that has absolutely no bearing on our processes whatsoever,” he says. “Her conceding means nothing.”

A substantial correction in the count for Kooyong has poured some cold water on Liberal Amelia Hamer’s chances, according to one psephologist.

I left you last night with the update that Hamer had sliced Monique Ryan’s lead down to just 366 votes, but today we start with Ryan ahead by 723 votes again.

So what happened?

While all the votes from pre-polling and election day booths are already counted, the good people from the Australian Electoral Commission are now going through the process of rechecking each of these counts — while also continuing to tally postal votes as they arrive.

Independent MP Monique Ryan’s lead in Kooyong has more than doubled overnight.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

It’s a normal part of the process. As psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham explains: “On Saturday night, when the votes are counted in those big pre-poll booths, it’s a lot of votes to count under time pressure … Every now and then a mistake is made.”

In this case, a substantial 210 votes from the Kew pre-poll centre were originally placed in Hamer’s pile, but on rechecking were correctly identified as votes for Ryan.

“It may well have been that it was like 100 votes in the wrong pile and also other minor changes,” Bonham said. “But that recheck made about a 200-vote difference by itself.”

Hamer also took a hit in the Ashburton pre-poll count, where 100 of her votes were removed after being deemed informal — meaning they weren’t filled out correctly and can’t be counted.

Bonham said these kinds of mix-ups are relatively common with large volumes of ballots: “It’s quite easy for bundles of 50 to just slip into the wrong pile.”

Smaller adjustments have been occurring across other booths too, he added, typically just a handful of votes here and there. These can result from reinterpreting unclear handwriting or reviewing ballots initially ruled informal on election night. This is all happening under the watchful eye of scrutineers from both Hamer’s and Ryan’s camps (see the photo below from Port Melbourne voting centre yesterday, which shows the Kooyong and Menzies divisions being counted — everyone in plain clothes is a scrutineer on behalf of a party or candidate).

Scrutineers (in plain clothes) watching the count for Kooyong and Menzies divisions at the AEC’s Port Melbourne counting centre on Wednesday.

While these kinds of rechecks happen in every seat, they make a big impact in contests as tight as this one. So does this swing the seat back toward Ryan?

“It’s a big blow for Hamer’s chances,” Bonham said. “Unless she gets one [correction] in the opposite direction … it’s going to be really difficult for her to get this back.”

But we’re not done yet. Several booths in Kooyong still haven’t been rechecked, so another twist isn’t out of the question.

Postal votes are also still coming in. Hamer had been steadily gaining from these through the week, but Bonham says that advantage is likely to fade.

“In these counts, postals often start out very strong for the Coalition — sometimes 65–35 [per cent in favour of the Coalition] — but the later ones tend to be less conservative,” he said. “By the time you get to the end, the flow may even start to favour the independent.”

If there’s one thing I’ve learned covering Kooyong, it’s to expect the unexpected!

Greens leader Adam Bandt is set to lose the seat of Melbourne in a shock defeat that leaves the party in disarray after a series of extraordinary setbacks at the election.

Labor claimed victory for its candidate, charity chief Sarah Witty, in the tight contest on Wednesday after gaining more than 53 per cent of the vote so far, but Bandt has not conceded.

Greens leader Adam Bandt on Monday.Credit: Penny Stephens

The Australian Electoral Commission extended its booth-by-booth, two-party preferred count of the seat showing substantial swings to Witty, who was leading against Bandt by more than 2000 votes late on Wednesday afternoon.

In the key booth of Richmond, which Labor won 51-49 at the 2022 election, Witty won 61-38. In the nearby Cremorne booth, Witty enjoyed a 15 per cent swing while in Fitzroy - a Greens’ stronghold - she was boosted by a near 9 per cent swing.

ABC election analyst Anthony Green said on Wednesday afternoon that based on current voting trends, Bandt will lose the seat.

Read more here.

Independent MP Monique Ryan’s lead in the seat of Kooyong has shrunk again this afternoon.

An updated count featuring a fresh batch of postal votes was completed not long ago, and Ryan is now just 366 votes ahead of Liberal Amelia Hamer, down from 622 a few hours ago.

That has narrowed the two-candidate-preferred result by 0.1 percentage points too: it now sits at 50.2 per cent Ryan to 49.8 per cent Hamer. We’re not far off a potential tipping point in the race.

While celebrating his victory in Goldstein this morning, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson commented on Hamer’s chances in Kooyong: “The trend lines are very encouraging, but it’s up to the voters to decide where that ultimately happens … but we’re very optimistic about where it’s heading.”

Hamer posted on social media shortly after: “Whichever way it goes, everyone who was part of the campaign should be so proud of what we achieved.”

While we wait to see if Hamer joins Wilson on the opposition benches, I’ve taken a look at how the new boundaries of Kooyong – redrawn since the 2022 election – might have affected the contest this time.

The electoral commission’s redistribution process abolished the neighbouring seat of Higgins, folding parts of it into Kooyong. These areas were always expected to be a wildcard for Ryan’s re-election bid.

An additional 26,000 voters were added to Kooyong from Toorak, Malvern, Armadale and parts of Prahran.

As mentioned in the blog previously, this redistribution was a catalyst for a short-lived push to recruit former treasurer and Kooyong MP Josh Frydenberg to recontest the seat – based on the belief that these wealthier areas might help swing the seat back to the Liberals.

Of course, Hamer was pre-selected in the end. But how did the redistribution shake out for both lead candidates in the end?

We’ve pulled the finalised two-candidate-preferred results for the 11 booths from these new areas and graphed them below:

It’s a mixed picture – but overall, Hamer performed well in the new territory, especially in Toorak, while Ryan held ground in the younger, more progressive pockets of Prahran. Ryan came out ahead in five of the 11 booths, though four were very tight:

• Armadale: 51.23 per cent
• Malvern Central: 52.23 per cent
• Malvern South: 50.19 per cent
• Prahran North East: 66.16 per cent
• Toorak Central: 50.73 per cent

Hamer led in the remaining six:

• Armadale Central: 52.41 per cent
• Armadale North: 54.33 per cent
• Malvern: 54.13 per cent
• Malvern pre-polling centre: 58.39 per cent
• Toorak: 61.95 per cent
• Toorak West: 57.67 per cent

Tim Wilson fought back tears as he claimed victory in Goldstein at an emotional press conference next to Brighton’s main Church Street shopping strip this morning.

“I’m very proud,” he started saying, before he had to pause to compose himself.

“Deep breath, deep breath,” one of Wilson’s many blue-T-shirt-clad supporters called out.

“I’m genuinely very proud to say that we are pleased to accept that we have won the seat of Goldstein back,” he said to loud cheers.

Wilson said he had over 1000 volunteers as well as donors and supporters who formed a “grassroots movement” in Goldstein.

“We did not have massive cheques written to us by entities based in Sydney who tried to treat the community like it was an acquisition in a trust fund,” Wilson said in a dig at Climate 200, which was a major donor to teal independent Zoe Daniel’s campaign.

After the press conference, I asked him what he thought his win meant for the teal movement.

“The teals are not an unstoppable force. No matter how large their chequebook, it can be beaten by a strong Liberal heart and a courageous Liberal heart,” he said.

Supporters congratulated Tim Wilson today as he claimed Goldstein again.Credit: Paul Jeffers

“It obviously sends a very strong message to them, because there was a hubris that they thought that they could just sort of get in and entrench themselves.”

Wilson said his win put the teals on notice that they could not take their positions for granted.

“There’s a way forward for us [the Liberal Party], but it requires us showing that sense of core belief, that courage and that conviction in what we believe in and what we stand for,” he said.

I asked him what he thought of members of the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church campaigning for the Liberal Party across the country, Wilson said that was not the case in Goldstein.

An emotional Wilson thanked supporters after claiming victory in Goldstein.Credit: Paul Jeffers

“Obviously people got volunteers from where they did, but ours was a community-based campaign of residents who very much wanted to make sure they saw change, and we have delivered that change, and that’s all I’m going to comment on,” he said.

I also asked Wilson about Jason Falinski, who has publicly backed him as a potential party leader. The former Liberal MP is head of the Australians for Prosperity lobby group, which ran many of the anti-Daniel attack ads in Goldstein, and is a good friend of Wilson’s.

“I’m very privileged to have people who believe in me,” Wilson said. “Obviously, I’ve got not just supporters who believe in me, a community believes in me, and there are people around the country who believe, believe in this campaign, and we carry their trust.”

After he spoke, Wilson was swarmed by well-wishers who wanted to shake his hand, take a selfie with him or have a quiet word to him.

The count continues in Goldstein, but Wilson’s lead has stretched to 1193 votes on a two-candidate-preferred basis.

“It’s obviously deeply emotional for me, because it’s one thing to have had the privilege before, but to have it a second time,” he said.

As votes continue to be counted, Labor has consolidated its lead in Wills, making yesterday’s predicted outcome – the ALP retaining the seat – all but certain.

Neither Labor’s Peter Khalil nor the Greens’ Samantha Ratnam would be interviewed about the result this morning.

Labor’s Peter Khalil looks likely to retain the seat of Wills.Credit: Gus McCubbing

With 78 per cent of the vote counted by this morning, the Greens appear increasingly unlikely to close Labor’s 4000-vote lead.

Absentee ballots, which typically favour the Greens, are yet to be counted, along with provisional and declaration pre-poll votes. A Greens win remains mathematically possible – but only just.

If it is over for Ratnam, a former state party leader and a formidable campaigner, it marks the end of a bid she launched more than a year ago, resigning from the Victorian parliament to contest Wills.

Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam on the campaign trail.Credit: Joe Armao

Her campaign mobilised 700 volunteers who knocked on more than 70,000 doors, made 20,000 phone calls, and placed 1100 signs on fences. While Labor surged nationally, she pulled off a 7 per cent swing to the Greens in Wills.

Wills spans progressive suburbs like Brunswick and Coburg, and once traditionally Labor-leaning areas including Pascoe Vale, Fawkner, Oak Park and Glenroy. But as we posted yesterday, all of that was shaken up this election.

And a boundary redistribution before this election added some of Australia’s most Greens-friendly booths – in North Fitzroy and North Carlton – to Wills for the first time.

But those booths, it turns out, did not remain as strongly Green as expected.

“The booths that were in Wills at the last election, there was a swing to the Greens in that area. But in the areas that were in the seat of Melbourne at the last election, there was a swing to Labor,” ABC election analyst Antony Green said.

“The overwhelming majority of swings in the booths in this seat are to the Greens. But all of the booths where the swing was to Labor are in that area transferred out of the seat of Melbourne.”

“Princes Hill, for instance, it had a big swing to Labor.”

Counting continues. We’ll update you the moment either side claims the seat or concedes.

Unless the final votes bring a surprise, Labor has survived the Greens’ strongest challenge yet in Wills – though perhaps not its last.

The seats of Bruce, Wills and Goldstein have all been called. But it’s groundhog day in Kooyong, where another batch of postal votes has cut Monique Ryan’s lead yet again – and a final result is probably days away.

Another batch of around 2000 votes was counted this morning, favouring Hamer with 59.6 per cent of the vote.

Counting continues: Independent Monique Ryan and Liberal Amelia Hamer are still hoping to claim Kooyong.Credit: The Age

This edges Hamer ever closer to Ryan: the two-candidate-preferred tally now sits at 50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent, with just 622 votes separating them — down from around 1000 last night.

Postal votes will continue to be counted in batches of about 2000. There are 6567 postals in the current “to-count” pile — but that pile is growing, as more postal votes arrive in the mail. There are still 5000 postal votes yet to reach the AEC (if all the issued envelopes are returned).

In addition to postals, there are three other categories of votes that make up a substantial share of the outstanding total — and none of them have been counted yet. They include:

• Absent votes: 4916 were cast for Kooyong, but only 537 (about 10 per cent) have made it back so far. These are votes from Kooyong residents who voted outside the electorate on election day — and it takes time for them to arrive from across the country. The AEC will wait until all absent votes have arrived before beginning to count them.
• Declaration pre-poll votes: 4137 were cast, with only 507 (12 per cent) received so far. These are votes cast outside Kooyong during the pre-poll period that require an extra check on voter enrolment — often because the voter is a silent elector, meaning their address is not on the public roll for privacy reasons. The AEC will not count these votes until all declaration votes are in.
• Provisional votes: A small pile of 401 provisional votes is also yet to be counted. These are used when there is doubt about a person’s eligibility — for example, if their name wasn’t on the roll, they didn’t have ID (in some states), or their name had already been marked off elsewhere. These votes are sealed and only counted after enrolment details are confirmed, which takes extra time.

If you’re interested in digging around in these numbers you can do so via the AEC’s Tallyroom for Kooyong page.

Victorian shadow treasurer James Newbury, whose state seat of Brighton falls within Goldstein, said Liberal colleague Wilson had campaigned strongly for a year.

“I think that Tim and the local Liberal Party ran a wonderful campaign in our community – a very, very strong campaign,” Newbury said.

Tim Wilson has claimed victory in Goldstein.Credit: Paul Jeffers

“Tim started a year out from the election ... He was out on the ground talking to people with massive community support, and he did a really strong job. ..

“And at the end of the day, the community expect strong local representation, they don’t want to see you just on election day,” Newbury said.

“That’s what Victorians and Australians now expect from their local representatives, and that’s, frankly, what every representative should be doing.”

Read more in our Victoria’s hot seats blog here.

Tim Wilson has reiterated his support for nuclear power hours after a party room colleague broke ranks to urge the Liberals to ditch the controversial policy.

Wilson said he believed in nuclear power “not as an end, but as a beginning”.

Supporters congratulated Tim Wilson today as he claimed Goldstein again.Credit: Paul Jeffers

“Nuclear power is part of building the future industrial base of our country,” Wilson said.

“If we don’t do that, then we are saying either we’re going back to coal, or we as a nation are going to de-industrialise. That is not a future I’m prepared to accept. ”

In an interview with this masthead, Liberal senator Maria Kovacic earlier shared her preference to scrap the nuclear plan in favour of renewable energy investment.

She said she thought the Australian people had rejected Coalition’s energy policy at the polls on Saturday.

Kovacic’s comments are the first public rejection of the Coalition’s nuclear plan by a member of the federal party room.