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Scope survey

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Wages are not expected to overtake inflation until the end of 2024, Scope panelists said.

Workers won’t get real wage growth until the end of 2024: economists

Economists in the Scope Survey say there is little chance of a wage-price spiral but most expect inflation will remain higher than wages until at least next year.

  • Rachel Clun

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The Reserve Bank says lower-income households will struggle the most with the rising cost of essentials, including fuel and groceries.

Australia tipped to avoid recession this year, but it will still feel like one for many

Top economists say the RBA and its fight to bring down inflation will be the key influence on the strength of the economy through 2023 and into next year.

  • Shane Wright and Rachel Clun
Forecasting is difficult at the best of times.

Economic forecasting during the pandemic and what no one saw coming

US baseball great Yogi Berra is often quoted as saying “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”. Scope panellists know this all too well.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
Unemployment is expected to get to 1970s-era lows.

Mortgage repayments and inflation risks rise but joblessness to improve

Homeowners will be hit with higher mortgage repayments while workers’ pay rises will be eaten up by inflation until next year, economists believe, despite low unemployment.

  • Jennifer Duke and Shane Wright
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg urged superannuation funds to review their investment portfolio and divest their Russian assets.

Budget red ink here to stay, economists say

Australia once had negative net debt. Now it’s on track for $900 billion and economists say it will never be paid off.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
The Reserve Bank of Australia is tipped to start raising rates after August.

RBA to gradually increase rates to avoid mortgage shock, top economists predict

An increase in household debt through the COVID-19 recession will weigh heavily on any decision taken by Reserve Bank.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
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Rates tipped to start rising before wages growth and inflation accelerate

Scope economists are expecting an interest rate rise in 2023, but wages and inflation may not be on target by then.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
Regulators and lockdowns could start to weigh on property values.

Housing boom tipped to end this year

Many of the nation’s top economists predict potential regulatory action and coronavirus lockdowns will take some of the heat out of the property market.

  • Jennifer Duke and Shane Wright
House values climbed at their fastest rate in 17 years through February while home loans are also surging, in reaction to ultra-low interest rates and government support programs.

Surging property prices could force RBA to reassess ultra-low rates, economists warn

Some economists believe the RBA may have to start lifting rates as early as next year to deal with house prices, which rose 3 per cent in Sydney and 2.5 per cent in Melbourne last month.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke
Inflation is tipped to outpace wage rises for the next two years.

Wages to fall in real terms despite sharp recovery from recession: survey

Even before the pandemic recession, wage growth had been stagnant and barely keeping up with inflation.

  • Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke

Original URL: https://www.smh.com.au/topic/scope-survey-1nfd