Mortgage repayments and inflation risks rise but joblessness to improve

Homeowners will feel the crunch of higher mortgage repayments while pay rises will be eaten up by inflation until next year, some of the nation’s pre-eminent economists believe, despite unemployment on track to reach 50-year lows.

In the middle of a cost-of-living crunch set to dominate the upcoming federal election, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age Scope panel of more than 20 of the nation’s top economic experts predict inflation will rise solidly over the next two years prompting interest rate rises that will have a knock-on effect for home values. At the same time, the dole queue will be shrinking rapidly.

Unemployment is expected to get to 1970s-era lows.Credit: Getty

The Scope panel on average expects joblessness to reach lows not seen since the 1970s by the middle of this year, with a 3.8 per cent unemployment rate in the June quarter. The rate is then tipped to edge down to 3.7 per cent by June next year. This is slightly more optimistic than the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 3.75 per cent.

Unemployment held steady at 4.2 per cent in January despite the Omicron COVID-19 outbreak earlier in the month. Of the five economists who expect the rate to remain above 4 per cent by mid-2023, only three expect it to deteriorate from its current position.

This includes industry consultant Margaret McKenzie who expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.5 per cent this year and remain at that level for another 12 months. Macroeconomics Advisory’s Stephen Anthony expects the rate to rise to 4.5 per cent in June 2022 and keep rising to 5.7 per cent the year after.

The most optimistic forecaster is ANZ’s David Plank who expects the rate to fall to 3.3 per cent by mid-2023.

The panel expects the economy will expand 3.7 per cent in the year to June and 3 per cent through the following 12 months.

There is plenty of disagreement among the panel as to how the economy will perform. The 2022 predictions for GDP growth range from a low of 2 per cent, forecast by Mr Anthony, up to a high of 5.2 per cent by KPMG partner Sarah Hunter. For 2023, the lowest forecast is again from Mr Anthony at 2.2 per cent, and the highest is 4.3 per cent forecast by both St George Bank’s Besa Deda and Westpac’s Bill Evans.

The Scope panel on average expects wages growth in the year to June 2022 to be 2.61 per cent but outpaced by 3.7 per cent inflation over the same period. Next year the cost of living is expected to rise by 2.9 per cent, just lower than wages growth of 3 per cent.

Only four experts expect wages growth at or above 3 per cent by mid-year, but this is tipped to change quickly. For the 12 months to June 2023 only three members of the panel expect wages growth to be below 3 per cent.

On average the budget deficit is expected to be just shy of $90 billion in 2022-23, shrinking to a $74 billion deficit in 2023-24 and $51 billion in the red in 2024-25.

University of Melbourne Professor Neville Norman expects the deficit to hit $145 billion in 2022-23 while the most optimistic outlook is Mr Anthony with a $67 billion deficit. Professor Norman expects a $110 billion deficit in 2023-24 and $80 billion in 2024-25.

Market Economics’ Stephen Koukoulas is tipping a rapid recovery in the budget position with deficits to shrink from $88 billion in 2022-23 to $10 billion in 2024-25 and a return to surplus in 2025-26.

The panel is not as convinced as the Reserve Bank that households are going to be splashing their cash over the next two years.

The RBA is expecting a 4.25 per cent increase in household consumption in the year to the June quarter 2022 and 4.5 per cent in the year to June 2023. The Scope panel on average is expecting a 3.3 per cent rise by mid-2022 and a 3.6 per cent rise over the following 12 months.