‘The forecast is just terrible’: BOM under fire after discrepancies between predicted rainfall, temperatures and outcomes

The Bureau of Meteorology got their temperature and rain forecasts wrong multiple times in the last week. And those who rely on them say it’s a big issue.

The Bureau of Meteorology has come under fire over the gap between temperature and rain forecasting and actual outcomes in South Australia.

A long range forecast released by the BOM in November forecast a wetter-than-usual summer.

The rainfall summary said there was a 60 to 80 per cent change for rain totals to be above average for large parts of SA, as well as other parts of the country.

The reality is very different, with many regions recording the lowest rainfall on total between February 2024 and the end of Jnauary this year.

Discrepancies between the forecast maximum and the actual temperature reached, came to the fore when Junaid Zafar Khan died while playing cricket for Old Concordians during Saturday’s extreme heat.

TELL US MORE IN THE COMMENTS

Mr Khan collapsed while batting for Old Concordians LO5 against Prince Alfred Old Collegians at Concordia College about 4pm.

The game was played with temperatures peaking at 41.7C about 3.30pm but weather for Highgate had been predicted to reach 38C – nearly four degrees lower than what was actually reached.

It is the second of two discrepancies of about 4C between the Adelaide weather forecasts and the maximum temperature reached last week.

On March 10 the forecast maximum, made the day before, was 36C but the mercury that day reached 40C.

However, weather on other days within the week were predicted with a greater level of accuracy.

The BOM was contacted for comment but was unable to provide a response before the deadline.

Sheep farmer Michael Burford on his last drying dam with the bones of lost sheep from the last drought on his Merngenia Station north east of Peterborough. Picture: Mark Brake

Mid North farmer Michael Burford said the only thing he felt he could rely on from the BOM was the rain radar.

“The forecast is just terrible,” Mr Burford, a sheep farmer based about 50km north east of Peterborough, said.

“They’ll say there’s 50mm coming and I’ll rearrange work and then you might only get 2mm. It’s frustrating when you are trying to plan things, and when you are desperate for rain, you get a bit of release when you hear there might be 20mm coming, and then you don’t get any.”

Mr Burford said the bureau should also provide hourly forecast updates, instead of its current practice of twice a day.

Andrew Zanker at his farm. Picture: Ben Clark

Appila farmer Andrew Zanker said forecasters’ predictions of last year producing a La Nina weather pattern, a confluence of meteorological events that traditionally produces above-average rain, had raised expectations – and then most of the state received its driest 12 months on record.

“And that was the really disappointing thing because there was a fair bit of hope around last year,” Mr Zanker said.

“Someone asked me the other day about the use of long range forecasts, I just said why would you trust the long-range one when you can’t even trust the seven-day one.”

Anthony Hurst at his Farm in the South East. Picture: Ben Clark

South East farmer Anthony Hurst said the bureau was usually “around the mark” with its temperature predictions but he was frustrated it had changed its rain forecasts to include a percentage chance of different amounts.

“It would be nice to know whether I’ve got 10mm coming or 1mm coming, not that there’s a percentage chance I might get 1mm,” Mr Hurst, a cattle and sheep farmer near Lucindale, said.

It comes after The Advertiser revealed issues with the BOM’s website.

People searching “Bureau of Meteorology Adelaide forecast” on Google, or who navigate directly to a bureau web page, may get a redirect message advising: “The Bureau of Meteorology website does not currently support connections via HTTPS. You will shortly be directed to http://www.bom.gov.au.”

After a short wait the page usually does redirect for the latest forecasts – but goes to the national homepage rather than the state-specific forecast or radar page users were trying to navigate to.

Internet expert, University of Adelaide Fulbright Distinguished Chair in Cyber Information Influence, Professor Christopher Bronk, said it was time the BOM upgraded its system.

Originally published as ‘The forecast is just terrible’: BOM under fire after discrepancies between predicted rainfall, temperatures and outcomes