Labor poised to snare the seat of Dunstan from the Liberals in historic win
The first time an SA government has taken a seat from an opposition at a by-election in more than 116 years is very much on the cards as polling numbers continue to be counted.
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More than 26,000 voters in the state’s most marginal seat will decide who replaces Steven Marshall as member for Dunstan, with both major parties acknowledging it could be a tight result.
Voting opened at 8am on Saturday and closed at 6pm – with counting beginning immediately – in a by-election marred by “mudslinging” between senior Labor and Liberal figures.
As of Thursday, more than 6500 early votes were lodged according to the Electoral Commission of South Australia.
Late evening
Labor is poised to snare the seat of Dunstan from the Liberals – the first time a SA government has taken a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 116 years – after both major parties lost ground to the Greens.
At 9.30pm on Saturday night, Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon had polled 52.9 per cent of two-party preferred votes over Liberal Anna Finizio’s 47.1 per cent, a swing of 3.4 per cent to Labor.
Greens candidate Katie McCusker polled 22.4 per cent of first preference votes – a rise of about nine per cent from the party’s Dunstan result at the 2022 state election.
Senior Labor figures said the party was on track to claim victory in the seat, but it was “too soon to do so publicly”.
There are still about a quarter of the votes left to be counted because, under the South Australian electoral system, pre-poll and postal votes are not counted until next week.
There was a roar as Ms O’Hanlon and Premier Peter Malinauskas arrived at the Altavilla Club about 9.20pm, where Labor supporters had gathered during the count.
“Cressida and I are both quite taken aback to be in this extraordinary position,” he said.
“It seems pretty remarkable that we’re on the verge, potentially, of doing something that hasn’t happened in South Australia for 116 years.”
Mr Malinauskas said the result reflected that South Australians want future-focused policies and a united government.
“I think there’s one message above all else that comes out of the by-election and that is the people of South Australia, including the people of Dunstan, just want a united team to get on with the job of progressing our state forward,” he said.
Ms O’Hanlon told supporters “tonight we are in an incredible position”.
“To the voters of Dunstan, getting to know you over the last three years has been one of my life’s greatest privileges,” she said.
“I am local because I know this community and because I love this community.”
Earlier in the night, Opposition Leader David Speirs and Dr Finizio addressed the Liberal Party faithful at the Robin Hood hotel.
“The results tonight are not looking that promising for the Liberal Party,” Mr Speirs said.
“Both major parties have seen a fairly significant fall in their primary votes, there’s been a big shift towards the Greens.
“That’s going to make our pathway to holding this seat exceptionally difficult going forward.
“For that result, I apologise. I am really sorry that it is as difficult as it might be.”
Dr Finizio said the campaign had brought out the best in the party.
“Every single side of the party has wrapped around me during this campaign,” she said.
“We knew that, going into this, it was going to be an epic battle and it has been an epic battle. But we should be proud of our efforts.”
Former premier and Dunstan MP Steven Marshall, whose resignation triggered the by-election, was present for the speeches.
Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said “the Greens are the big winners tonight”.
“Big swings against both major parties and a massive swing to the Greens,” she said.
“Tomorrow our campaign in Sturt begins.
“James Stevens, Peter Dutton’s candidate, should be worried - voters in the eastern suburbs are sick of the mudslinging and want better.”
Early evening voting begins
O’Hanlon was leading the count at 7.30pm, at which point the results from four of 12 Dunstan polling booths had been revealed.
Ms O’Hanlon at that time had recorded 60.4 per cent of two-party preferred votes over Liberal candidate Anna Finizio’s 39.6 per cent.
Greens candidate Katie McCusker was still in third place, having polled 24.3 per cent of first preference votes.
The booths that had been counted were at Kensington, Marden, St Morris and St Peters - which had a combined total of 3177 votes.
After booths closed at 6pm, Labor MPs and volunteers streamed into the Altavilla Club on The Parade for candidate Cressida O’Hanlon’s election night event.
Among them was Deputy Premier Dr Susan Close, who said the night was about thanking those who had contributed to the campaign.
“Everyone’s worked really hard,” she said.
“The vibe in the room is really upbeat.”
Others at the event included Attorney-General Kyam Maher, Treasurer Stephen Mullighan and Education Minister Blair Boyer, while Ms O’Hanlon and Premier Peter Malinauskas were expected to arrive later in the night.
What happened throughout Saturday
The Liberals held Dunstan in 2022 on a knife-edge margin of just 0.5 per cent, but Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon recorded a 6.9 per cent swing against the outgoing Premier.
Ms O’Hanlon, 51, a former farmer and political adviser, is now vying for the seat again against Liberal candidate and lawyer Dr Anna Finizio, 37.
Speaking at East Adelaide Primary School on Saturday, where both contenders were shoring up votes on the ground, Ms O’Hanlon said of the Opposition’s attacks that “you just ignore it as much as you can”.
“I think people want to talk about the local issues and so that’s what I’ve spent my time talking about,” Ms O’Hanlon said.
She said the election would be decided on parish pump issues like urban infield development, heritage and tree protection, as well as residential street traffic.
However, Ms O’Hanlon was also questioned about ambulance ramping, with data showing that 82,000 hours had been lost to ramping since Labor’s state election victory.
“To be honest, it doesn’t come up very often at doors, but when it does, it’s a conversation I’m happy to have,” she said.
“What people realise when we talk to them is that ramping is not the only issue, it’s a system-wide problem and it will take a system-wide effort to resolve.
“What we’ve seen is the government invest heavily in doctors, beds, hospital expansions, and more ambulances.
“We’ve seen that result, in that if somebody calls an ambulance, they’re twice as likely to roll up on time.”
Premier Peter Malinauskas admitted that his party was “up against history” given that no state government has unseated an incumbent opposition member in by-elections since 1901.
He refuted the suggestion that the result would be a referendum on his handling of healthcare.
“I don’t know (the result), no one knows what will inform voters the most,” Mr Malinauskas said.
“But what we hope is that people think about the credentials of the candidate and the differences in policies.”
Only two hours earlier at the school, Dr Finizio said she was “incredibly hopeful” about the result.
“There’s a huge disparity between what’s been going on in the media and what’s been going on here in the community,” Dr Finizio said.
“This mudslinging is exactly why people are turning away from politics. I’m here because I want to see a better standard of politics.
“This entire campaign I’ve been focused on the issues that matter to the people of Dunstan – cost of living, health, the environment, heritage, tree canopy, the things people are talking to me about every day.
“It feels incredibly tight – I can’t call it but we’re all staying hopeful.”
Opposition Leader David Speirs echoed his candidate’s prediction.
“Even when Labor had significant majorities throughout the mid-2000s, they didn’t have a big majority here,” Mr Speirs said.
“Vini Ciccarello only won this seat by a handful of votes in 1997 and 2002, and in the Labor landslide of 2006, this seat was won by only about four per cent by Labor when they won others by double-digit margins.
“It has various communities that are very different from one another, from areas like St Peters, Hackney and College Park to more suburban areas like Firle, Marden and Payneham.
“It’s quite unique, there’s no other seat quite like it in terms of its demographics, so it will be a tight result.”
Mr Speirs also addressed a public tweet from the Electoral Commission to the Liberal Party’s media account on Friday, informing it that a complaint had been made regarding Liberal campaigning material.
“I don’t believe we’ve done anything wrong there at all,” Mr Speirs said, adding that no ruling had been made yet.
“The Liberal Party is pretty easy to get in touch with – I’m sure the electoral commissioner has the phone number.
“The tweet was a bit unusual, but that’s the commissioner’s prerogative to communicate into the public domain and we will await a determination in due course.”
He could not confirm if the complaint was about claims Labor would introduce a “GP patient tax” in light of payroll tax overhauls.
Other candidates include those from the Greens, the Australian Family Party, and the Animal Justice Party.
The cost of living and healthcare are both front of mind for voters, but both major party candidates have faced allegations of improper behaviour by their opponents’ parties.
The Liberal opposition accused Ms O’Hanlon of helping her husband, James, secure business meetings with government figures while working as a casual staffer for an MP.
Ms O’Hanlon denied the allegations and a state government spokesman said no public funds have been given to her husband’s company.
Meanwhile, Transport Minister Tom Koutsantonis accused Dr Finizio of failing to mention on her public profiles that she was director of a family business that collapsed in debt.
Leaked documents also revealed she applied for a job with then-shadow Attorney-General Kyam Maher in 2020, leading Mr Koutsantonis to argue her “actions (raised) serious questions about her authenticity”.
Dr Finizio responded that she was a company director only “on paper” and resigned in 2017, two years before the business went into administration.
She said she applied for the job at Mr Maher’s office “to contribute to positive outcomes for the community” and had never been a Labor member.
Greens blast Liberals
On the eve of the by-election, Dunstan residents received letters from SA Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, urging voters to “kick the Liberals out” of their electorate in an act of support for women in politics.
“The Liberal Party have a woman problem,” Senator Hanson-Young wrote.
“This by-election, it’s time to send them a message.
“The SA Liberals have just chosen an ultraconservative male backbencher to lead their senate ticket over a more experienced and capable female shadow minister.
“After all this time, the Liberal Party still don’t get it and women are still being sidelined and silenced.
“ … we are sick of the blokes calling the shots and it’s time for change.”
The Advertiser understands about 10,000 copies of the letter were distributed by female Greens volunteers to Dunstan residents on Friday evening.
Both the Liberals and Labor selected female candidates to run for the seat of Dunstan.
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Originally published as Labor poised to snare the seat of Dunstan from the Liberals in historic win
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